Computer scientist, economist. Working on prediction markets. See the future by learning from the past. #fightfortheuser
Jul 31 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
$COIN Earnings Highlights
Subscription & Services:
Cointinues to be a resilient business.
Revenue slipped only 6 % Q/Q to $656 M. Stablecoin (USDC) revenue jumped 12 % to $332 M on 13 % higher average on-platform balances and record 61 B $USDC in circulation.
Prime Financing & Custody:
Move over $JPM, Coinbase is becoming the crypto banking Goliath.
Average Prime loan balances hit all-time highs; Assets-under-custody reached $245.7 B, and Coinbase now guards 80 %+ of U.S. crypto-ETF assets.
May 17, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
The foundational work for the transformer model used in ChatGPT, and indeed all GPT models, comes from a paper by Google called "Attention is All You Need" by Vaswani et al., published in 2017.
What is it and how does it work?
arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762
The Transformer model is a novel neural network architecture that relies on a mechanism called "attention" to model relationships between elements in a sequence, like words in a sentence.
This model has been revolutionary in natural language processing for several reasons:
Mar 6, 2022 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Lets think about the upcoming economic situation:
Ukraine and Russia account for about 30% of world wheat and barley exports, 19% of corn exports, 23% of canola exports and 78% of sunflower oil export.
▫️ Russia is 22% of global exports of ammonia
▫️ Russia is 14% of global urea exports
▫️ Russia is 14% of global monoammonium phosphate exports
▫️ Russia and Belarus are 40% of global potash exports
Some thoughts on the immediate repercussions of Russia's invasion on financial markets. 👇
At first, we will see a global deflationary shock. This is as much about short-term trade issues as it is about accelerating deglobalization. The world has changed. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deglobali…
The next stage will be inflation. Russia and Ukraine are both important in supply chains. The cost of food and energy will increase, especially in Europe. Manufactured goods such as fertilizer and semiconductors will also be affected. marketplace.org/2014/03/05/ukr…
Sep 26, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Some people asked me about $SYN and TLDR I don't like it as an investment.
It's main advantage is avoiding the withdrawal delays in rollups. These delays are dramatically reduced with more users and L2s like DYDX have already monetized "quick withdrawal" functionality.
Just because we moving to a multi-chain world, it doesn't mean a user is going to be frequently moving between chains. CeDeFi apps will abstract protocol topology so that the user is largely unaware which chains they are using.
Sep 24, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$TEDDY is definitely my fastest 10x. It's only been a couple days. 🥳
When I looked at the tokenomics, it had everything you want to see:
▫️ Extremely low float at ~1% of supply
▫️ Heavy token incentives in their KPIs
▫️ Token purpose in the form of a revenue share
This project has an excellent flywheel similar to $DAI's early days. At low issuance, algo stables have incredible problems maintaining their peg. This opens wonderful arbitrage opportunities which, in turn, lead to more $TSD creation.
More TVL + issuance = revenue + comp value
Aug 10, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Listening in on the $COIN Q2 earnings call.
Thread here for anything interesting that's not already in the shareholder letter. 👇
s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/file…
Brian Armstrong opening comments. Discussing long-term crypto trends. Emphasizing people are starting to use crypto beyond trading.
Quantifies that there are now 1.7M staking users, more than the total of 1M MTU in 2020.
Jul 5, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Started trading #crypto with $7k in early 2017, and eventually added another $15k. That portfolio was worth ~$2.5MM as of June.
Some takeaways 👇
1/ I've made a ton of mistakes. Eventually I decided to stop learning the hard way (expensive), and invest time in learning the easy way (books).
In my first 9 months, buy & hold bigly outperformed me. To be fair, when markets go straight up, most traders will underperform.
