1/🧵 #Brexit trade watch

First data for 2024 now available

Here is the current UK trade performance (based on fresh data from Germany):

Jan 2024 vs Jan 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+20% total
+29% 🇪🇺 EU
+25% 🇺🇸 USA
-2% 🇨🇳 China

-5% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan 2024 vs Jan 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+34% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+25% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+19% 🇫🇷 France
+29% 🇮🇹 Italy
+27% 🇪🇸 Spain
+56% 🇵🇱 Poland
+28% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+26% 🇦🇹 Austria

-5% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵 #Brexit trade watch

2023 FULL-YEAR DATA NOW AVAILABLE

Here is the current UK trade performance (based on fresh data from Germany):

Jan-Dec 2023 vs Jan-Dec 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+18% total
+21% 🇪🇺 EU
+32% 🇺🇸 USA
+1% 🇨🇳 China

-2% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Dec 2023 vs Jan-Dec 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+32% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+22% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+10% 🇫🇷 France
+24% 🇮🇹 Italy
+19% 🇪🇸 Spain
+35% 🇵🇱 Poland
+17% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+19% 🇦🇹 Austria

-2% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵 #Brexit international trade watch

Here is the current UK trade performance (based on fresh data from Germany):

Jan-Nov 2023 vs Jan-Nov 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+18% total
+21% 🇪🇺 EU
+32% 🇺🇸 USA
+2% 🇨🇳 China

-3% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Nov 2023 vs Jan-Nov 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+32% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+23% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+9% 🇫🇷 France
+25% 🇮🇹 Italy
+19% 🇪🇸 Spain
+35% 🇵🇱 Poland
+18% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+19% 🇦🇹 Austria

-3% 🇬🇧 UK

/1 #Brexit update

The British Chambers of Commerce @britishchambers have just issued a new report on Brexit and the difficulties for UK exporters.🇬🇧🇪🇺

Here are voices from UK businesses up and down the country.

Should be required reading for politicians across all parties.

https://twitter.com/britishchambers/status/1737382332095746150

/2 A new reluctance by European firms to engage with British companies:

1/🧵 #Brexit international trade watch

Here is the current UK trade performance (based on freshly released data from Germany):

Jan-Oct 2023 vs Jan-Oct 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+17% total
+21% 🇪🇺 EU
+31% 🇺🇸 USA
+2% 🇨🇳 China

-6% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Oct 2023 vs Jan-Oct 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+32% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+22% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+9% 🇫🇷 France
+24% 🇮🇹 Italy
+18% 🇪🇸 Spain
+35% 🇵🇱 Poland
+18% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+19% 🇦🇹 Austria

-6% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵 #Brexit international trade monitor

Here is the current UK trade performance (based on freshly released data from Germany):

Jan-Sep 2023 vs Jan-Sep 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+18% total
+22% 🇪🇺 EU
+31% 🇺🇸 USA
+3% 🇨🇳 China

-6% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Sep 2023 vs Jan-Sep 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+33% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+23% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+10% 🇫🇷 France
+25% 🇮🇹 Italy
+18% 🇪🇸 Spain
+36% 🇵🇱 Poland
+20% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+20% 🇦🇹 Austria

-6% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵 #Brexit international trade monitor

Here is the current UK trade performance (based on freshly released data from Germany):

Jan-Aug 2023 vs Jan-Aug 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+19% total
+23% 🇪🇺 EU
+31% 🇺🇸 USA
+4% 🇨🇳 China

-5% 🇬🇧UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Aug 2023 vs Jan-Aug 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+35% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+25% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+10% 🇫🇷 France
+25% 🇮🇹 Italy
+18% 🇪🇸 Spain
+37% 🇵🇱 Poland
+21% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+20% 🇦🇹 Austria

-5% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵
#Brexit trade watch
Based on the latest data from Germany, here is the current UK trade performance:

Jan-Mar 2023 vs Jan-Mar 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+21% total
+24% 🇪🇺 EU
+36% 🇺🇸 USA
+3% 🇨🇳 China

-13% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Mar 2023 vs Jan-Mar 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+35% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+25% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+10% 🇫🇷 France
+32% 🇮🇹 Italy
+16% 🇪🇸 Spain
+41% 🇵🇱 Poland
+25% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+23% 🇦🇹 Austria

-13% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵
#Brexit trade watch
Based on the latest data from Germany, here is the current UK trade performance:

Jan-Feb 2023 vs Jan-Feb 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+19% total
+24% 🇪🇺 EU
+35% 🇺🇸 USA
-1% 🇨🇳 China

-16% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Feb 2023 vs Jan-Feb 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+36% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+21% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+10% 🇫🇷 France
+35% 🇮🇹 Italy
+14% 🇪🇸 Spain
+40% 🇵🇱 Poland
+24% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+23% 🇦🇹 Austria

-16% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵
#Brexit trade watch
Based on the latest German data, here is the current UK trade performance:

Jan-Sep 2022 vs Jan-Sep 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+17% total
+20% 🇪🇺 EU
+29% 🇺🇸 USA
+14% 🇨🇳 China

-12% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Sep 2022 vs Jan-Sep 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+26% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+18% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+6% 🇫🇷 France
+21% 🇮🇹 Italy
+7% 🇪🇸 Spain
+37% 🇵🇱 Poland
+22% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+30% 🇦🇹 Austria

-12% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵
#Brexit trade watch
Based on the latest German data, here is the current UK trade performance:

Jan-Aug 2022 vs Jan-Aug 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+16% total
+19% 🇪🇺 EU
+26% 🇺🇸 USA
+14% 🇨🇳 China
-12% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Aug 2022 vs Jan-Aug 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+25% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+18% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+5% 🇫🇷 France
+20% 🇮🇹 Italy
+6% 🇪🇸 Spain
+37% 🇵🇱 Poland
+22% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+27% 🇦🇹 Austria

-12% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵
#Brexit trade watch: Based on the latest German data, here is the current UK trade performance:

Jan-May 2022 vs Jan-May 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+11% total
+14% 🇪🇺 EU
+21% 🇺🇸 USA
+13% 🇨🇳 China
-16% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-May 2022 vs Jan-May 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+17% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+15% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+0% 🇫🇷 France
+16% 🇮🇹 Italy
+4% 🇪🇸 Spain
+34% 🇵🇱 Poland
+21% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+19% 🇦🇹 Austria

-16% 🇬🇧 UK

1/🧵
#Brexit trade watch: Fresh evidence that Brexit is weakening trade integration with the EU

Here are the latest German trade data.

Jan-Feb 2022 vs Jan-Feb 2019

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+7% total
+9% 🇪🇺 EU
+12% 🇺🇸 USA
+12% 🇨🇳 China
-24% 🇬🇧 UK 2/ This graph shows the Brexit gap that has opened up between the world's major trading blocs and the UK.

UK trade update: The #Brexit trade gap with other key economies is getting firmly entrenched. Here is the comparison to the latest German trade performance.

Jan-Nov 2021 vs Jan-Nov 2020

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+14% total
+17% 🇪🇺 EU
+18% 🇺🇸 USA
+10% 🇨🇳 China
-2% 🇬🇧 UK Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Nov 2021 vs Jan-Nov 2020

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+16% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+18% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+12% 🇫🇷 France
+24% 🇮🇹 Italy
+16% 🇪🇸 Spain
+20% 🇵🇱 Poland
+19% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+19% 🇦🇹 Austria

-2% 🇬🇧 UK

#Brexit trade update: UK trade now seems set on a permanently lower trajectory compared to other key economies. Here are the latest data from Germany.

Jan-Oct 2021 vs Jan-Oct 2020

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+14% total
+17% 🇪🇺 EU
+19% 🇺🇸 USA
+12% 🇨🇳 China
-2% 🇬🇧 UK Zooming in on major European partners

Jan-Oct 2021 vs Jan-Oct 2020

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+17% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+18% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+12% 🇫🇷 France
+25% 🇮🇹 Italy
+16% 🇪🇸 Spain
+21% 🇵🇱 Poland
+19% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+18% 🇦🇹 Austria

-2% 🇬🇧 UK

New statistics from Germany show that the UK trade catch-up has stalled for now. The UK trade gap with key markets (EU, USA, China) persists in latest data.

Jan-Aug 2021 vs Jan-Aug 2020

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+16% total
+20% 🇪🇺 EU
+20% 🇺🇸 USA
+14% 🇨🇳 China
+1% 🇬🇧 UK Let's zoom in on major European partners.

Jan-Aug 2021 vs Jan-Aug 2020

German exports 🇩🇪 to:
+19% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+18% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+15% 🇫🇷 France
+26% 🇮🇹 Italy
+21% 🇪🇸 Spain
+23% 🇵🇱 Poland
+22% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+20% 🇦🇹 Austria

+1% 🇬🇧 UK

New trade statistics for UK regions 🇬🇧

Most striking: EU imports into Northern Ireland soared in 2021 Q2, rising by 34%. By comparison, non-EU imports dropped slightly by 0.6%.

Consistent with a reorientation of NI trade and supply chains towards EU away from GB. Overall picture for the UK in the year to June 2021:

- Goods imports increased by 1.3% compared with the same period the previous year.
- Goods exports decreased by 3.5%.

On a regional basis:

UPDATE: German trade has recovered from the Covid slump. But the UK continues to lag behind (especially for UK exports). Here are the latest data:

Jan-May 2021 vs Jan-May 2020

German 🇩🇪 imports from:
+13% total
+17% 🇪🇺 EU
-2% 🇺🇸 USA
+16% 🇨🇳 China
-15% 🇬🇧 UK German imports from the major European partners:

+24% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+9% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+7% 🇫🇷 France
+24% 🇮🇹 Italy
+17% 🇪🇸 Spain
+25% 🇵🇱 Poland
+27% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+18% 🇦🇹 Austria

-15% 🇬🇧 UK

NEW DATA: How have individual 🇬🇧 UK regions fared in their trade performance since 2019?

Summary:
1) Trade has fallen for all UK nations (also for all English regions).
2) 🇪🇺 EU exports have fallen 3x faster than non-EU.
3) 🇪🇺 EU imports have fallen 5x faster than non-EU.

1/10 4) Exports from 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland have been hit much harder than from 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England.
5) We can see early signs of trade diversion in Northern Ireland: Imports from the EU are up there but nowhere else in the UK.

2/10

UPDATE: German trade is doing well in 2021, recovering from Covid with all major trading partners. The UK continues to be a clear outlier.

Jan-Apr 2021 vs Jan-Apr 2020

German 🇩🇪 exports to:
+11% total
+15% 🇪🇺
+12% 🇺🇸
+21% 🇨🇳
-6% 🇬🇧 Here are the major European partners:

+14% 🇧🇪 Belgium
+13% 🇳🇱 Netherlands
+12% 🇫🇷 France
+23% 🇮🇹 Italy
+16% 🇪🇸 Spain
+19% 🇵🇱 Poland
+14% 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
+14% 🇦🇹 Austria

-6% 🇬🇧 United Kingdom

NEW DATA: #Brexit and international trade

Now with quarterly data
2021Q1 vs 2020Q1

Exports from Germany 🇩🇪 to:
+2% total
+5% EU 🇪🇺
+1% USA 🇺🇸
+22% China 🇨🇳
-18% UK 🇬🇧 2021Q1 vs 2020Q1

Imports to Germany 🇩🇪 from:
+2% total
+5% EU 🇪🇺
-11% USA 🇺🇸
+25% China 🇨🇳
-28% UK 🇬🇧