Senior Researcher at UN Institute for Disarmament Research @UNIDIR. Prof. @Unicatt. Ex @EUI_EU; Disclaimer: views are my own & Retweet/like is no endorsement.
First, Netanyahu is pushing Tehran to be the escalator and expand the war, which he needs politically more than at any other time. This tactic works well for US politics and guarantees that Israel will keep having US/Western moral and material support. /2
The Iranian constitution provides a mechanism for substituting the new president, which is likely to guarantee a smooth transition to the next president. Constitutional procedures & strong internal security mechanisms reduce the likelihood of chaos or a surprise in the system. /2
Considering the Mediterranean as Iran's strategic defensive depth is not new. Yet the Red Sea has not traditionally had such a status. Bringing the Red Sea into Iran's strategic depth indicates that Tehran will draft long-term strategic plans to cement its presence there. /2
در مواضع ایران و روسیه در مساله فلسطین حداقل دو اختلافات بنیادی چشمگیر است: 
Against the backdrop of threats made by Iranian politicians, such as Raisi & his Foreign Minister, Iran's military thinking shows more complexities and highlights important differences from political rhetoric. /2
The chapter is part of very interesting book edited by @MehranKamrava with contribution of @KeshavarzianA @S_Akbarzadeh @mpargoo @AlirezaEshraghi @HamidehDorzadeh, Shirin Hunter, and others, that looks at how various institutions after the 1979 Islamic revolution evolved./2
دلیل ۱: تجربه موفق ایران در حفظ نفوذ پس از عادی سازی سیاسی کشور میزبان. در تجربه عراق ج.ا. توانست نفوذش را در عین حضور تمام کشورهای عربی در بغداد حفظ کند. اگرچه رقابت و تنش همواره وجود داشت، اما فاکتور حضور سایر رقبا در عراق به تنهایی نتوانست عاملی برای افول نفوذ ایران باشد./۲
2. IRGCN is moving beyond its classic ZSU-23 air-defense cannon on its Ashora class boats. Now it is deploying a sophisticated sea-launched NAVAB missile defense system which can better defend against low-flying objects, cruise missiles, and UAVs. /2
The idea of going underground for airbases is nothing new. It's a WW2 and later a cold war tactic. It's a tactic to help a weaker military to resist a superior military's threat—for example, Chinese bases to withstand US strikes or Taiwan bases to withstand Chinese strikes. /2
First, these small-scale strikes can’t meaningfully impact IR’s military capabilities. For years, Tehran has been dealing with sabotage & small-scale attacks, thus having a level of readiness. It has built a technical and strategic resiliency to deal with these situations. /2
First, Russia will continue to be reluctant to sell major offensive capabilities to Tehran. Any sales that change the regional balance of forces and favors Iran can upset Russia-GCC ties. For this reason, a deal like fighter jet sales to Iran face a serious political obstacle./2
Second,Iranian drones have a proven operational experience. More than similar drones like that of Turkish made. They have more variety in their missions, loads, etc., and most importantly, they are low-cost assets. /2