A brief 🧵 on why @LHSummers is an arrogant buffoon who, despite a long track record of being massively wrong, still seems to command the respect of policymakers We can start with #BrooksleyBorn, the prescient head of the @CFTC, who loudly warned of the dangers of the over-the-counter (OTC) #Derivatives market in the 90s: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooksley…

Illuminating but depressing piece from @willwilkinson examining stunningly detailed new research on partisan sorting by @RyanDEnos and Jacob Brown modelcitizen.substack.com/p/bubble-bubbl… Graphical depictions from @KevinQ at @UpshotNYT here:

https://twitter.com/KevinQ/status/1372174994877378563?s=20

Some thoughts on economic disaster relief - aka fiscal stimulus (things are fluid, and I'm open to refinements!). First, we should aim for $1trn, or 5% of GDP, which is on the high end of estimates. Better to overreact now, both on this and public health mitigation measures. 1) We should send #ChecksChecksChecks to every person (including kids!) - $2000 is a rough estimate - could be $1000 per month during the national shutdown - this is about $600bn

I want to share a few obvious thoughts on the #KavanaughConfirmation - we need to use the right Bayesian priors to think this through: 1) false accusations of rape occur between 2-10% of the time en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_acc… 2) 63% of sexual assaults are not reported to police nsvrc.org/sites/default/…