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May 3, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Okay, I’m going to dive into the WGA?AMPTP negotiations next week, since I want to take my time to analyze everything before I opine extensively, but I do have some initial reactions...
First, I am very, very happy that the WGA released their demands. This openness is amazing and cuts down on speculation and allows me to actually analyze an actual thing, which, again, is great.
May 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The story of the day (rightly) is the WGA Strike starting. For those who want a reading list of what I’ve written, see below. I’m going to write a strategy column tomorrow (my most important story of the week), but it won’t be on the WGA. I’ll tackle that next week.
How Raising TV’s Flat Rate Residuals Could Backfire
By all rights, both could be running wildly profitable streamers, but without any official statements or audited financial books, it's tough to know.
Jun 10, 2022 • 33 tweets • 5 min read
Starting a thread. Going long.
I should probably write something about the big story of the week, Disney firing Peter Rice, former head of Disney General Entertainmnet. (TV) Every newsletter/podcast/trade covered this story, so the town thinks its big news. And it is!
2/ That said, if you’ve followed me for a while, you’ll know I avoid predicting whether or not new executives will succeed or fail.
1/ Welcome back to my quarterly “Netflix Earnings Report”. I put a tight time limit on today’s article because I’m trying to get my #StreamingRatingsReport finished so quick hits only today.
2021 Q4 Edition. End of year!
2/ As always, I write this before I read what the internet says (and collectively decides is true). To keep my own opinions honest.
Sep 23, 2021 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Man, what a WEEK! for Nielsen ratings. I'm filled to bursting with thoughts. And I should be writing my actual report, but here's a quick teaser. For film.
The top 30 here.
So last week I said we'd have a film showdown between Cruella on Disney+, Vacation Friends on Hulu and He's All That on Netflix.
Cruella--going to SVOD from PVOD, the Pay 1 window now--wins going away.
Jul 21, 2021 • 35 tweets • 8 min read
Netflix Earnings Report - Thread 2
The Content Thread
1/ Let’s start with flashy headline:
This might be Netflix’s worst quarter for Original Content since early 2019!
Jul 20, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
I lied. I'm still on.
Logging off soon.
Any other really good takes? Feel free to pump your own stuff.
Here's from @emohorgan
This thread will be strategy, financials and subscribers. Content will get its own thread. (With way more charts.)
2/ Without having looked--honestly, I just spent the last 100 minutes reading the 10K and updating my charts/graphics--I think lots of people are going to hop on Netflix for a down quarter.
But the mood felt like it was going to be a miss...
Mar 25, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
So I don't want to do this, but can I rehash a conversation I had with @RichLightShed?
The thesis I had back in June of 2019 is that, well, MCU movies are very very popular. The evidence, was, you know, all the money? That they made?
Moreover, knowing that if something is popular in one window, it is popular in future windows too--literally one of three core principles of video entertainment--I long speculated that Marvel films on Netflix were INCREDIBLY popular.
Mar 25, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Okay, streaming ratings report time. Reminder, this is primarily (but not only) using @nielsen data for the week of February 15-21st.
This is so much fun!
2/ And I say that even if I was off on a few of my predictions. Because this is when we get a peak insight the “y” or “output” in our models. We get to see if we were right or wrong. And even being wrong teaches us a lot!
Jan 19, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
How to prep for Netflix's Earnings call later today?
The caution is we're firmly in the realm of small sample sizes. We only have Netflix datecdotes back to Q4 2018, which means 8 quarters to judge.
Jan 12, 2021 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
1/ Starting last week I began unpacking all the data related to the content battlefield in the #streamingwars in 2020. This meant everything from Netflix datecdotes to Nielsen data to Google trends to countless other analytics firms.
2/ The plan is to release the results (the articles) in a few of my favorite outlets (@decider, @whatonnetflix, my site). But in the meantime, I thought I’d share some thoughts on each analytics firms results and what they can tell us.
Oct 20, 2020 • 30 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Netflix Earnings Report Thread - Q3 of 2020
Hypothesis: Netflix subscriber growth was low due to a weak content slate in the most recent quarter.
2/ Netflix guided to 2.5 million subscribers, which they were under by .3 million, at 2.2. (The street was estimating 3M.)
I don't care about estimates, though, because why set expectations on expectations? For me, the question is growth: is it slowing or accelerating.
Last quarter, NFLX earnings snuck up on me. So my data wasn't prepped. That's why today is "data day" for me.
2/ This AM I organized 15 weeks of Nielsen data by production type, first/second/library run, Original and what not.
Oct 19, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Let's start a thread:
What #datecdotes do you think Netflix reveals tomorrow? Too many options for a poll.
Ratched got the treatment last week...
Here's some tweets from the last quarter of already parceled out data:
A Thread on Netflix' Feature Film Performance
2/ Before we get to the data—and we have lots of tables/charts coming—I want to explain where the data comes from and the “5 Data W’s” of this thread.
Jun 5, 2020 • 34 tweets • 5 min read
Thread: On TV production timelines
For broadcast, cable and streaming
In an age of coronavirus.
Why? To understand the delays caused by coronavirus shut downs, this is what basically impacts everything.
