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Alex Etra Profile picture
Alex Etra
@EtraAlex
Senior Macro Strategist, Exante Data. Ex-Fed. Views my own. @exantedata
Jul 19, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
I will add a few things I found notable upon skimming the @IMFNews that I think others will also find interesting such as @Brad_Setser @M_C_Klein @michaelxpettis @MarkSobel_OMFIF @marcmakingsense @adamkwolfe @jnordvig @GeneralTheorist "Global current account balances—the overall size of headline current account deficits and surpluses—widened for a third consecutive year in 2022."

Indeed. Image
Dec 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
super interesting and timely paper from the @federalreserve economists on global spillovers from China's credit and business cycle. Am sure of interest to @chen_long @michaelxpettis @Brad_Setser @M_C_Klein @adamkwolfe and many others.
federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/w… Some of the exhibits I found most interesting...

China's credit impulse equal to about 1.5% of *global* GDP in last few cycles...
Oct 27, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
A couple things stood out in my latest note on global imbalances. First, as we noted last year, the post-pandemic period saw a truly extraordinary surge in global equity flows both domestic as well as cross border... ...the lion's share of which went to the US. We speculated at the time this trends might not be sustainable and indeed it has not been. Gross portfolio cross border equity flows have slowed a lot over the last year (as have domestic flows)...
Feb 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
We have a new substack out from @ExanteData looking at disappointing EM capital flows in 2021. Flows to EM ex-China have been "crowded out" as investors used their risk budget on US equities and China's index inclusion drew FI flows. 🧵moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/us-exception… Despite a rebound in global growth, to which EM flows have historically been correlated, portfolio flows to EM ex-China were disappointing in 2021 (especially equity flows).
Nov 20, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
It's Saturday. We have a new substack from @ExanteData. In the first in our monthly series on global capital flows we look at the big picture: Are we witnessing the return of 'global imbalances?' 🧵
@jnordvig @GeneralTheorist @Brad_Setser @stwill1 @michaelxpettis @M_C_Klein Image Read the note here: moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/the-return-o…

TLDR: Yes. US deficit ⬇️, but it is not just China's surplus that is ⬆️. Surpluses also ⬆️ in EZ, EM ex-China.

Will it last or is it 'transitory?' Much like the #inflation debate, the answer will likely depend on US savings behavior.
May 28, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
We published a new substack on recent intervention trends in China, with implications for $CNY and $USD.
A short thread on the key points.
@michaelxpettis @M_C_Klein @sobel_mark @GagnonMacro @MarketInterest @reziemba @SunnyOhHK @adamkwolfe @TomOrlik
moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/china-bop-pa… There has been a lot of confusion around FX policy as we approached 6.40 in USDCNY. In particular whether China might *strengthen* the RMB to deal with rising import/commodity/PPI/CPI prices. See @martin_lynge's here:
Jan 22, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
The IMF does some great work and the latest China Article V has a lot to admire (as usual).

But I am a bit confused about some of the BoP analysis and I think others may be too?

=Thread

@GeneralTheorist @GagnonMacro @Brad_Setser @jturek18 @michaelxpettis @M_C_Klein I will address some of this in more detail in a forthcoming Substack (moneyinsideout.exantedata.com), but there are basically two points I want to make: