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Klaus Eriksen Profile picture
Klaus Eriksen
@Fireblade577
Ex Submarine Officer in the Royal Danish Navy. Currently Reservoir Engineer consultant living in Italy, Malaysia and Norway plus a few other places...
Jan 28, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
What are Russia's offensive plans for the Winter?
A short thread attempting to predict where Russia is going to strike in their likely upcoming Winter offensive
#UkraineRussiaWar 1) Image Predicting a war and where the enemy might strike is fraught with dangers which is why you very rarely see any of the Generals on twitter doing it. However I have the advantage of not having a massive reputation at stake so I will attempt to do this anyway. Let's start with 2)
Dec 27, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Russian Supply Issues
The Russian army is heavily dependent on rail supply and cannot conduct offensives where this is not available.
A map of the Ukrainian rail system in relation to the frontlines can be seen below
A short thread (1) Image Russia’s logistic system dates back to WWII in terms of dependency on rail transport due to significant requirements for man handling the supplies and inadequate availability of trucks to handle transport over longer distances (2) Image
Dec 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
@noclador I don't agree that it is going to be easy. Generally Ukraine has not had much success in breaking through adequately manned and supplied Russian lines. Their offensive successes have so far been against undermanned lines (Kharkiv) and supply deprived lines (Kherson) 1/4 @noclador When we view videos of Ukrainian attacks, we generally see them getting stalled on the first line by mines and other action and they then get hammered by quite accurate Russian artillery guided by the Russian Orlan-10 drones 2/4
Dec 9, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
A lot of people are saying the Russian attacks on Bakhmut don't make sense. I beg to differ as I think they do make sense from the Russian point of view. A short thread: (1) #UkraineRussiaWar️ Image Let's look at what the Russians are doing:
Wagner is the main unit which is attacking. Their units now consist of a majority of low cost expendable criminals led by an experienced core of veterans which mostly stays at the back of attacks and lead the Criminals by drones (2)
Nov 6, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
A thread of the challenges the Ukrainians are facing breaking through the Russian lines in Kherson
Below is simplistic diagram showing how the Russians typical organize their defence in Kherson 1) Image The battlefield in Kherson mainly consists of fields intersected by lines of trees
Each field is typically 1-2 sqkm in size
The Russians typically organise their defence in the following way using the cover of the tree lines 2)
Sep 16, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Where are the Ukrainians going to attack next?
This is a little thread of perhaps the most likely scenario
ONLY Open Russian online information was used in this thread
1/19
#UkraineRussiaWar Image Many expected the Ukrainians to continue their offensive East crossing the Oskil River but we have not seen this happening.
In addition, many expected the Ukrainians to press hard to extend their bridgeheads across the Siversky Donets river
2/19
Sep 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There are reports the Russians are gathering reinforcements to counterattack the Ukrainian advance which is their only chance to save the entire Izyum front
A little thread looking at the options:
#UkraineRussiaWar (1/6) Image The ultimate objectives of such a counter attack would likely be to retake Balakliya through Shevchenkove thereby re-establishing the supply to Izyum and cutting off the Ukrainian forces (2/6) Image
Aug 20, 2022 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
The Battle for Kherson
The Ukrainian Kherson offensive has already started. There was no specific starting day but instead a gradual ramp up of pressure on the Russians
This is a thread about what I think we can expect from the Kherson offensive in 2022 (1) #UkraineRussiaWar Image A few weeks ago, I made a thread predicting that Kherson was going to be an attritional battle when most people were expecting a classical manoeuvre offensive and that it indeed was in the Ukrainian interest to make the battle attritional (2):
Jul 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A little thread of my thoughts on the overall Ukrainian strategy in Kherson
I don't think the Ukrainians are capable of a quick victory there and moreover I don't think this is even a priority for them. 1/5 #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️ The Russians cannot afford to loose Kherson
Loosing Kherson to Ukraine would be a major blow for the Russians in terms of strategic outlook and messaging to both the home and worldwide audience 2/5