Director, Institute for Economic Justice. Student of economics, activist, occasional polemicist.
Feb 17, 2021 • 18 tweets • 9 min read
Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.
You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n
NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs. dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-0…
Jul 10, 2020 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Here’s my latest article on South African fiscal policy. It argues that the underling logic of the @TreasuryRSA and @tito_mboweni Budget isn't supported by evidence. The risk of growth trap should be first concern.
A THREAD 1/x
businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/202…
The overriding concern of the Budget appears to be the rising level of debt, a growing budget deficit and the cost of repaying the debt. These are all NB. Together with employment, GDP, inflation, exchange rate etc. these are key macro variables. 2/x
@UNCTAD@IEJ_SA 2/ Finance nerds amongst us will be pleased with the report. However, climate issues could feature more strongly throughout. Still, an excellent summary and useful political tool.
