Justin Guay Profile picture
Former @Sierraclub @PackardFdn @ClimateWorks & Sunrise now with Quadrature Climate. Opinions my own. @Guayjg.bsky.social
Aug 9 18 tweets 6 min read
You know, it really is a helluva time to be a climate hawk 🧵 1/ As a movement we’ve been at this over 50 years, I’ve personally been at it 15

Since ever there’s been a push & pull between playing not to lose, vs playing to win

The former always seemed to win. But Walz is the latest data point that the winds of change are blowing
May 31 7 tweets 2 min read
So let me get this straight ☝️

PGE is negligent in managing wildfire risk, nearly goes bankrupt, turns to ratepayers for💰

They use high rates *they caused* to justify killing DG solar because 'cost shifts' but really because it threatens their monopoly

Did I get that right?🤔 Footnote 1 canarymedia.com/articles/solar…
Feb 26, 2023 13 tweets 6 min read
This is the most thought-provoking climate book I have read in a long time.

A few scrambled thoughts on how unprepared we are for the geopolitical fallout solar geo engineering will bring🧵 1/ First in order to even make sense of the book read @DKeithClimate

He’s a short primer on all things Solar Geo and as controversial as he is considered, I find him smart, straightforward, and eyes wide open about the gravity of the convo

keith.seas.harvard.edu/a-case-climate…
Oct 26, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
Putin's fossil fueled war of aggression in the Ukraine is accelerating a transition to clean energy, peace and freedom

🧵 on the incredible European trendlines in energy, investment and more from @KingsmillBond 1/ Ignore the noise. Fossil fuels are dead in Europe

The EU peaked its fossil demand over a decade ago. But the fossil fuel industry is opportunistically seizing on a momentary blip to tell a growth story it desperately needs

Don't let them gas light you Image
Jun 28, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
The annual BP statistical review came out this morning

Ironically the oil companies data dispels the misleading narrative that's being generated right now about energy and climate trends

A 🧵 inspired by @KingsmillBond 1/N Rising fossil demand? What demand? We peaked fossil fuel demand back in 2019 (490.1 EJ). Despite all the hype we did not seen total demand surpass that mark in 2021 (489.7 EJ)
Apr 20, 2022 15 tweets 7 min read
I’ve been trying to get my head around what Putin’s fossil fueled war of aggression means for the climate and clean energy transition

Here’s the signal I see amongst all this noise

🧵

guay.substack.com/p/the-world-ne… 1/ Overton window is smashed, gas is the loser: Overnight gas went from being blessed as a sustainable investment in Europe to a dangerous reliance it needed to avoid. It’s no longer the safe bridge Europe thought it was euractiv.com/section/energy…
Mar 27, 2022 12 tweets 4 min read
I’ve been stewing on why the US LNG surge to Europe bothers me so much. It has really struck a nerve.

A few thoughts 🧵 Deep down it’s driven by the ongoing – will they or won’t they lead on gas – conversation. A decade ago the Obama administration led the world in an international effort to move beyond coal. The Biden admin’s challenge is now to do the same for oil and gas
Mar 25, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Forget the climate insanity of this plan the real problem is that Europe is not gaining energy security

Maintaining reliance on globally traded gas regardless of the source means sky high prices & volatility

The only true security is getting off gas all together Beyond long term dependence the willingness to extend the time it takes to get off Russian gas is baffling

Clean energy is faster, cheaper and permanent than new LNG import/export infra

This isn’t a serious plan - it’s a knee jerk stupid giveaway to the gas industry
Mar 4, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read
We are in uncharted territory when it comes to the financial norms that are being smashed left and right to respond to Putins war

They could have lasting implications for our other big crisis

Trying to get my head around them all 🧵 1/n Passives problem solved? MSCI became the 1st index provider to remove Russian companies. Given over 1/2 of all assets are passively invested this is...big

Imagine removing companies without transition plans? Can't say any longer 'it can't be done' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Feb 28, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
Heat Pumps for Peace and Freedom

@billmckibben⁩ is calling on the USG to invoke the Defense Production Act and flood Europe with heat pumps to get off Russian Gas and de-fang Putins real weapon of war

Now we’re talking (🧵) billmckibben.substack.com/p/heat-pumps-f… 1) We don’t need Congress: Passed during the Korean War, it was used most recently by Trump to mandate production of ventilators and President Biden already used it to expedite the production of 4,000 miles of fire hose to help with California wildfires
May 13, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
Voluntary corporate 2050 net zero targets as something to be lauded in climate land bother me. A few reasons 🧵 1) The average tenure of a corporate CEO is ~ 7 years and trending down. Leaders change and so does company direction corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2018/02/12/ceo…
Apr 28, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
The not so stealth oil and gas bailout now has a price tag - $744 billion. That’s how much toxic oil and gas debt exists. A mini 🧵 on the implications based on ⁦new @IEEFA_institute⁩ analysis ieefa.org/ieefa-commenta… 1st - the number that matters for the @federalreserve corporate bond buying program - $617 billion. @ieefa_institute says 83% of total oil and gas debt is eligible for the Fed program given their lax investment criteria. That means $617 billion in O&G debt is technically eligible
Apr 13, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
There’s a big important bailout no one is talking about. To be fair there’s so many pigs at the trough it's hard to follow all the action. But don’t take your eyes off what’s happening with the insurance industry. It’s setting an awfully important precedent for climate change 🧵 Turns out businesses thought their insurance coverage offset interruption losses during the Covid crisis. That’s what insurance is for right? But they didn’t read the fine print & insurers are denying everything in sight. Now it's a political problem politico.com/news/2020/03/2…
Mar 25, 2020 8 tweets 4 min read
We’re in a brand new world which now includes @BlackRock managing @federalreserve emergency bond buying programs. That’s a big deal. Time to understand the implications for climate change 🧵 blackrocksbigproblem.com/post/blackrock… ICYMI @Blackrock is committed to climate. They made a big announcement to that effect earlier this year - a world ago - you may have noticed nytimes.com/2020/01/14/bus…
Mar 1, 2020 10 tweets 6 min read
This is big. @ewarren is the first candidate with a climate plan invoking Dodd-Frank - possibly the most powerful climate legislation ever passed - to rein in fossil fuel finance. Let’s explore the bold, beautiful details of her latest, greatest plan 🧵 medium.com/@teamwarren/st… @ewarren (1/n) First did you know she already had 13 climate plans? 13! But we needed one more because financial institutions can't freely underwrite fossil fuels, or self regulate. We need real regs if we're going to solve this. Who better to write them than the creator of CFPB?
Jan 31, 2020 14 tweets 12 min read
ICYMI @blackrock shook the finance world w/a big new climate announcement that largely ignored the Passives Problem. @sunriseoz wrote a paper to shed light on the biggest climate finance problem no one is talking about 🧵sunriseproject.org.au/wp-content/upl… @blackrock @sunriseoz First thing you need to know. Passive index investing has grown dramatically over the past decade overtaking actively managed funds for the first time last year. A trend that has accelerated markedly since the last financial crisis
Dec 31, 2019 14 tweets 10 min read
A new year is around the corner. Time to make some predictions about how financial institutions will respond to the growing threat climate change, stranded assets, and eroding social license will pose. 🧵 (1/n) The financial exodus from coal accelerates: There are now 116 globally significant financial institutions with a coal policy. In 2019 over 35 new or improved policies were announced. In 2020 > 40 new or improved policies will be put in place ieefa.org/ieefa-update-g…
May 21, 2019 9 tweets 4 min read
Few people know just how large and important BlackRock has become to the financial system. Even less realize it’s a driving force behind the climate emergency. It’s AGM is this week. Here’s s a few things you should know to level up theguardian.com/business/2019/… There are 112 globally significant financial institutions that have exited the coal industry. BlackRock stands out like a sore thumb bucking this trend as the world’s LARGEST owner of the coal industry. It’s the top shareholder in 7 of the worlds largest coal producers
Jan 1, 2019 12 tweets 5 min read
#electrifyeverything 2018 recap (1/1) I’ve been trying to figure out the cost/benefit of my⚡️ life. TL/DR it’s f&$!g complicated. But *I think* I have a few takeaways... #electrifyeverything (2) If I’ve done my math right I’m all in at ~$95/month for my electricity which is almost exactly what my combined gas/electricity spend was the year before. Which sounds ok BUT it’s complicated....