🧵We are entering a new inflation cycle.

The bond market sees what the Fed doesn’t – Inflation is a real threat.

Investing legends Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones know this. So does @Hedgeye.

Ignore these obvious signals at your own risk…

Here’s what you need to know 👇 2/ Along with Hedgeye, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is shorting U.S. Treasury bonds.

Why?

He sees what Wall Street doesn’t —higher inflation and a Fed struggling to manage rates.

Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones agrees:

“All roads lead to inflation. I’m long gold.”

Did you know cumulative US inflation has soared +21% since 2021?

But there’s more to this story… the ticking U.S. Debt time bomb 💣

This Theory Predicts American Crisis Will Last Until 2030 🚨

The “Fourth Turning” is HERE.

We’re living through the final stage of an 80-year cycle that redefines society as we know it.

The New York Times calls the Fourth Turning a “Doomsaying Theory,” but there’s reason for hope.

Here’s why. 👇🧵 1/ According to Neil Howe @HoweGeneration, every 80-100 years, society goes through 4 phases (Turnings). The Fourth Turning is the last and most crucial.

It’s marked by crisis, upheaval, and ultimately, transformation.

The New York Times calls Neil Howe a “doomsayer with an optimistic streak.”

Each fourth turning, in his telling, kicks off a renaissance in civic life.

🌍🔄

🧵 The Fall of Rome: Is History Repeating Itself?

An alarming story of debt, currency debasement and runaway inflation.

Sound familiar? 💰 1/ Spending Problems: A Tale of Two Empires

The Roman Empire had a spending problem.

What Roman officials did next led to the demise of the Roman Empire, which ceased to exist by 476 A.D.

cc @federalreserve @treasury 👀

In this thread @t1alpha explains Structured Investment Products.

What are they, what’s the use case, and how are they structured?

🧵(1/5) We will start with the basics:

Structured investment products are hybrid securities that combine elements of traditional investments like bonds or stocks with derivative components like options or swaps.

They allow customization of risk/return profiles to meet specific investment objectives.

Something is serious f%^ked up in America right now

We're at all-time lows for American confidence in:

◼️The Presidency
◼️Congress, and
◼️The Supreme Court

All-time since 1973!

1973 was the end of the Vietnam War and the beginning of the first series of recessions that… https://t.co/L1zpKVwRnatwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This is truly sad.

American confidence in public school just matched its all-time low set in 2014.

This Week's Events @Hedgeye

5/22: @HedgeyeIndstrls Long $MP Black Book

5/23: @HedgeyeChina Short Kuaishou Black Book

5/23: @HowardWPenney Long $QSR Black Book

5/23: @HedgeyeSnakeye Short $CHH Black Book @HedgeyeIndstrls @HedgeyeChina @HowardWPenney @HedgeyeSnakeye This Week's Events @Hedgeye (cont)

5/24: @HedgeyeEEvans Q2 Health Care Policy Themes

5/24: @HedgeyeRetail Bone, Bagger or Bust 2.0

5/24: @HedgeyeChina Long $JD Black Book

5/26: Consumables: Monthly Top Idea Updates

5/26: @HedgeyeCannabis $CRON Speaker Call w/ Mike Gorenstein

Quick insights from our DEEP LEARNING ALGO

(certain commodities oversold)

1/ Our deep learning Wheat algorithm signals oversold in $WEAT

Many on Wall Street would have you believe the "U.S. Consumer is hanging in there" and "in fine shape."

That's horse crap. Let's dispose of that nonsense right now.

1/
app.hedgeye.com/insights/12977… Below is your "WTF Chart of the Day."

As you can see, over the past 50 years the cost of public college tuition is up +1,759%.

Meanwhile, the salary of your average, hardworking American is up just +596%.

Inflation: ✔

2/
bit.ly/3EMvaoK

This is a quick thread about scammers/scumbags who should be banished from our industry.

In other words, spineless opportunists who mislead people and represent the worst of Wall Street.

We're looking directly at you Brad Thomas @rbradthomas! 😉 Let's start with this horse shit from Brad.

"Medical Properties Trust has been beaten down by short sellers, which has caused shares to massively underperform"

Wrong❌

$MPW has been "beaten down" b/c it's finally being exposed by analysts like @HedgeyeREITs for being a scam

Ummm, guys... M2 didn't even go negative in the Volcker days, when beleaguered contractors and carpenters were sending 2x4s to the Fed Chair's office.

The visionary behind the bestselling phenomenon The Fourth Turning looks once again to 🇺🇸’s past to predict our future in this startling and hopeful prophecy for how our present era of civil unrest will resolve over the next 10 years—and what our lives will look like once it has. 25 years ago, Neil Howe @HoweGeneration and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles.

Alright... the FTX Debacle

This is so much bigger than #FTX and @SBF_FTX.

Sure, it's one of the biggest political, regulatory and financial breakdowns of this Cycle.

But the bigger story is right under our nose.

This requires a thread. 🧵 @SBF_FTX 2/ The #FTX story.

Incompetence here? Of course.

Corruption? Fraud? Massive conflicts of interest? Most definitely.

This whole thing is rotten to its core.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY BOB RICH!

(in-house cartoonist and all-around good guy)

In honor of Bob's 69th trip around the son, we're celebrating some of his best work.

Dear Investors,

If you're struggling in this market

If a so-called CNBC "expert" led you astray

If you were told you'd be safe in a 60:40 portfolio

Know this..

THERE'S A BETTER WAY TO INVEST ➡ HEDGEYE

SAVE UP TO 72% OFF

GET OUR BEST DEAL ALL YEAR: bit.ly/3TvaIhn There's A LOT of nonsense on Wall Street.

Our goal since Day 1 has been:

HEDGE FUND QUALITY RESEARCH TO ALL INVESTORS

@KeithMcCullough & our 40+ person research team have protected A LOT of investor portfolios in 2022.

GET OUR BEST DEAL ALL YEAR: bit.ly/3TvaIhn

QUAD 4 Nearly $8 trillion in market cap has evaporated.

Q: Who are you gonna trust to guide you through this carnage? @jimcramer? LOL

A: The team that got you out to begin with… Hedgeye Founder @KeithMcCullough and our data-driven research analyst team.

India hiked rates by 40 bps to 4.40% in an emergency meeting.

It's their first hike since 2018. They also increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps to 4.50%.

RBI is trying to withdraw liquidity from the system and combat inflation, which is currently at 7%.

If Bitcoin hits $21,000, $MSTR will get margin called.

per their earnings call h/t @smallcapsteve @TheDeepDive_ca

Eurozone PPI just hit an all-time high at 36.8% YoY.

8th consecutive all-time high, previous print was 31.5%. +5.3% MoM.

Energy costs are up 104.1%
Producer inflation ex. energy is up 13.6%

major #Quad3 stagflation...

Oftentimes, we are left to wonder how our policymakers amass fortunes whilst "serving in the interest of the American people". Occasionally, a bit of light is shed unto how these so-called "technocrats" become rich while "ordinary" people suffer. This requires a thread. 🧵 2/ We are appalled to learn that Fed presidents have been daytrading all along, while pumping asset prices sky high and gaslighting Americans into believing that inflation is temporary, or that "it isn't too bad if you discount all the things you need to survive".

TOMORROW on @HedgeyeTV:

Neil Howe @HoweGeneration & Andrew Freedman @HedgeyeComm sit down for a fireside chat at 12:30pm ET. (replay will be available)

Topics include:
1) Attention Recession
2) Digital Advertising
3) Creator Economy
4) Antitrust Threads
5) Live Q&A @HedgeyeTV @HoweGeneration @HedgeyeComm This event is open to Neil's Demography Unplugged, Andrew's Communications Pro, and our Macro Pro subscribers.

Learn more here and get access: info.hedgeye.com/Products