Threading on $NYT which I'm starting to wrap my head around #s for. Let's imagine they hit their target of 10m digital news subs at some point. Let's take FY19 revs per digital sub of $124, true it up for the 13% price hike in March 2020 (to ~ $140) and leave it there. 1/ Let's assume non-news digital revs get to $100m per year (up from $60m LQA). Let's assume digital ad revs only flex up in-line with subs (so from $260m in FY19 to $550m). That implies total digital revs of $2,050m ($1.4b news subs, $100m other subs & $550m advertising).

TCI has almost a quarter of their 13F book in the Class 1 rails (namely $CP $CNI & $UNP ). Competitively-advantaged, irreplaceable, well-run companies? Sure. But I just can't see how the math works out such that these are compelling investments at today's prices. 1/ Let's look at $CSX (because that's the one I have an up-to-date model for and because they're all pretty darn similar). In the last five years (2014 - 2019) CSX carloads shrunk at a ~ 2% CAGR, revenue/carload grew ~ 1% so total revenue shrunk at ~ 1%.

Thoughts on and why despite the insane run the stock has had I think there's more to go. There are a fair few assumptions here so my numbers are going to be wrong but hopefully sufficiently close to right that the conclusions still stand. 1/ I think you have to look at the business as Azure / everything else. Not because there's some SoTP angle or anything but because the businesses are at such different stages in their life, agglomerating them together misses too much.