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IceCap Profile picture
IceCap
@IceCapGlobal
We empower clients with the knowledge to properly understand the uncertainties of global markets. Not Investment Advice.
Feb 27 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
Private Credit CRASH Continues

🧵

1/n Background - the investment industry will ALWAYS claim credit for success.

Great at stock picking! Great at finding niche managers!
And when it comes to Bonds - great at managing Duration and Credit.

They're ALWAYS very successful with your money.

Until failure happens.

Then the industry will claim, NO ONE SAW IT COMING. Or "HANG IN THERE FOR THE LONG RUN, PAL"

Investors (and the media) have fallen for this, forever.
2/n
May 4, 2025 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 It's funny and painful to watch so-called Canadian elites argue about something they know little about. Not to mention #1 goal being to GASLIGHT all the time, 24-7.

Here's what really happened with Canadian inflation and government. PLEASE share with anyone who's GASLIGHTING anyone. 1/ Ottawa borrowed nearly $500 Billion during COVID.
Apr 19, 2025 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
🧵A guide how USA makes Canada the 51st state in 5 easy steps. Step 1: USA commands its troops to take the weekend off. Their services will not be needed. The real battle will be lead by financial nerds. Image
Dec 18, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Question: Is Canada in crisis?
Answer: Sort of

Many different metrics all indicate the country and economy, are either already in a serious state, or on the precipice of entering a serious state.

The best metric? $CAD is down -6.23% since the end of September. That's a pretty serious move for a major FX.Image 2/ Yet, one has to consider how Canada is fairing relative to other countries and economies as well.

Let's start with the Economic FantasyLand called Europe. Like Canada, the 2 biggest bullies in the Eurozone are also experiencing their own political embarrassments . French PM had to resign over their budget, while the German govt has collapsed with a snap election called for the new year. Turns out socialism isn't that popular after all.

The $EUR is down -6.28% since the end of September.Image
Jul 6, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD! 1/n. Currently an enormous tug-a-war or unreconciled differences between 2 mkt groups. One is screaming RISK-ON and the other is screaming RISK-OFF 2/ Here's equity and credit mkts screaming higher indicating a recession isn't a concern because the FED has the mkt's back and will cut aggressively to save the day (as it usually does).

Mar 23, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Cracks are starting to develop within the reflation trade. Here's EM FX. It's been rolling over in 2021. With most notably, BRL starting to be exposed over the last few days. 2/ Here's EM equities also showing weakness.
Aug 14, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/ current risk-on trade may be reaching a point of exhaustion. Image 2/ trigger events can come from out of the blue, and at first may appear immaterial or insignificant to the bigger picture. One of these events is the escalating monetary/fiscal/geopolitical crisis in #Turkey
Feb 20, 2020 • 24 tweets • 7 min read
THREAD: The IceCap Global Outlook has readers from over 50 countries, and many have asked for more details on our market views. Here’s a thread on specifics covering FX, Sov debt, Duration, Credit and Volatility. 1/ IceCap’s view has been very clear – we believe there is a potential for $USD to appreciate very rapidly. Immediately risks in the world are OUTSIDE of the US monetary system. As these risks accelerate, foreign capital will seek safety in USD – and this can happen in a hurry.