Director of Research and Economics at the Australian Industry Group. @The_AiGroup
Feb 19, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Practically, this means NZ will "deny benefits" under RCEP it would otherwise be obligated to extend to MM. But effectively, this has complex consequences... /1
In terms of market access (ie MM goods get into NZ preferentially, and vice versa), it's nearly irrelevant. Almost all liberalisation in RCEP is carried forward from the AANZFTA of 2009. Unless NZ seeks to deny that too, the direct impact is very low. /2
Dec 4, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The PRC has massively escalated its trade coercion of Lithuania. By reportedly delisting LT from the PRC customs country list, it has effectively blocked all bilateral trade. This is unprecedented, and a grave threat to the integrity of the global trade system. An explainer /1
This isn't the PRC's first trade coercion rodeo of course. LT is actually the ninth country to suffer coercive PRC trade bans (previous victims include JP, NO, PJ, MN, KR, TW, CA, AU). So what makes the PRC's assault on LT this time special? /2
Sep 22, 2021 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
After the PRC's shock bid to join the CPTPP last week, Taiwan goes double-or-nothing and lodges it's own play! This is now a geoeconomic showdown whose outcome carries high stakes for the Indo-Pacific and the world. An explainer thread /1
The PRC surprised many with its bid last week to join a trade bloc that has long been billed as an "China-rivalling" agreement. Opinions differ on how genuine the bid is, but as I explained previously (below) there's reason to be highly sceptical. /2
The debates over AUKUS raise questions over Europe's Indo-Pacific strategies, and their intersection with regional powers such as Aus, Ind, US, Jpn and ASEAN. Released this week, the @PerthUSAsia's special report - "Europe's Indo-Pacific embrace" - explores this intersection. /1
Four European govts - Fr, Ger, UK, Ned - have announced Indo-Pacific strategies; as has the EU this week (below). But why would Europe, with strategic challenges of its own, suddenly become so interested in a region on the other side of the globe? /2 eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/h…
Sep 16, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
After months of suggestion, the PRC has formally applied to join the CPTPP. What does it mean for PRC to try and join a trade bloc the US govt once claimed was "equivalent to a carrier battle group" for advancing US regional interests? An explainer: /1 abc.net.au/news/2021-09-1…
Background: the CPTPP consists of 11 countries on the Pacific Rim, who salvaged the original TPP after Trump pulled the US out. It is a "21st century" trade agreement which mostly covers developed country interests, such as services, investment, IP and regulatory rules. /2
May 17, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
From an Aus perspective, I agree with a lot of @DavidHenigUK views here - particularly the "What exactly is Britain's FTA strategy trying to do?" injunction. But I think he is also unnecessarily alarmist and defensive in terms of UK interests. Because... (a thread) /1
First, I think it's widely know what the UK's offensive asks of Aus are - services, investment, and a very strong MNP outcome (prob one of the strongest ever in a bilateral). Aus can do this - MNP a stretch but it'll get there - but UK has to offer something decent in return. /2
May 17, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We all now iron ore markets are on a tear. But how much have Australia's *non-iron ore* exports to China fallen since the China started applying trade sanctions in May 2020? I crunched the numbers today, and its 31.2% (or $21 billion).
These figures are calculated from DFAT's "Trade Statistical Pivot Tables - monthly series", available at dfat.gov.au/about-us/publi…
Nov 29, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
After seven months of constantly escalating trade sanctions, Australia will now take the PRC to the WTO over its grossly-unjustified barley tariffs. (An explainer thread). abc.net.au/news/2020-11-2…2. Aust has a very good chance of winning on barley. The methodology PRC used to calculate the anti-dumping duties is simply not consistent with global rules for anti-dumping. It was concoted to produce the politically-desired result; and will fail under WTO DSM scrutiny.
Nov 13, 2020 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
The #RCEP agreement is being signed this weekend. Eight years in the making, it’s not just another FTA: it will fundamentally remake the economic, strategic and institutional architectures of the Indo-Pacific. My 10-step mega-thread on everything you need to know about RCEP:
2. RCEP is an historic achievement. It will be the largest regional trade bloc in existence, delivered against the hostile backdrops of COVID and trade warfare. It shows the Indo-Pacific is “open for business”, and leads the world on economic openness. asiasociety.org/australia/look…
