Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #RCEP

Most recents (7)

Must-read article on #RCEP for anyone trying to understand the dynamics of regional trade deals. Implications for #Brexit and the UK-EU and UK-US prospective deals.
by @davidfickling
/1

washingtonpost.com/business/asias…
@davidfickling The process of proliferating FTAs creating distinct, separate zones has been going on for a while now with the dominant US, Japan and EU models.
/2
@davidfickling A couple of good quotes from the article:
"Trade agreements are hard precisely because deals that are worthwhile economically tend to be politically hazardous, and vice versa."
Again #Brexit comes to mind
/3
Read 7 tweets
.@shekhargupta is spot on with this video on #RCEP & the economic reforms that should have happened in the run up 2 the summit at Bangkok.



Its is worth every minute of your time b/c these reforms have to happen 1 way or the other, sooner or later.
1/n
Recall this is not the first time that India has had to negotiate a world trade agreement. PVNR & Dr Singh actual used the Dunkel draft to GATT or WTO to go ministry by ministry, figuring out what needed to change so that India could be prepared 2 tackle the new trade regime.
There was no major dislocation to industry, trade, currency or our reserves as WTO came into effect b/c we were prepared 4 it in Agriculture as well as industry. In fact we gained handsomely and today Modi ji actually goes around the world demanding that WTO rules be followed.
Read 16 tweets
(1/3)
*TEN LESSONS from India's RCEP pullout*
1. Indian economy is in a slowdown, and RCEP would've instantly hurt at least 3 sectors badly.
2. The largest free trade area showed little concern to India's demands on ICT and services.
3. India and China are no match at all now.
+
(2/3)
4. Despite the hardest bargaining that India drove, the other 15 just did not budge. Bad sign.
5. No matter how may summits you hold, raw economic power & fundamentals will trump photo ops.
6. Competitiveness issue with Indian exports is deep-set. We aren't competing.
+
(3/3)
7. National focus from now on should be ONLY ECONOMY nothing else.
8. Our markets will remain swamped with Chinese goods anyway!
9. Perhaps the last chance to join the global mfg value chains (GVCs) may be lost.
10. Change the narrative now.

#RCEPSummit
#RCEP
Read 3 tweets
#India has lost $7 billion #WTO case against US. Meanwhile #China has won its case with WTO allowing the Chinese to impose a $3.6 billion sanction on American goods. The verdict comes days after India US officially suspended defense cooperation. #TradeWar greatgameindia.com/india-loses-7-…
The #WTO verdict against India in favor of US in a $7 billion case comes days after India and US officially suspended defense cooperation in what is now giving rise to a full-fledged India-US #TradeWar.
greatgameindia.com/india-us-offic…
The #WTO case was filed in March 2018 by the U.S., challenging what it said were illegal export subsidies provided to #Indian firms. The decision, which can be appealed, comes amid a now full-fledged  India US #TradeWar.
greatgameindia.com/india-us-trade…
Read 6 tweets
THREAD

Why India should not sign #RCEP

🇮🇳 signed Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Korea & Japan,with whom overall trade deficit increased to $41.8 billion 2019 from $15 bill in 2011 & $5 bill in 2006

Imagine d trade deficit spike with #China after RCEP, which is $ 53.6 billion
26.15% of the GVA from India’s #agri sector in 2016-17 was constituted by livestock. Further, 66.93% of the value of livestock output was from #milk i.e. roughly every fifth rupee in agri comes from #dairying. Now, imagine, opening this sector to cheap #milk imports thru #RCEP.😟
Canada allows a small amount of imported products duty-free/low tariffs. Higher amounts attract steep tariffs– 245% on #cheese or 298% on #butter, shielding Canadian farmers from foreign competition, & we on d other side r devising way to flood India with cheap imports thru #RCEP
Read 19 tweets
Every FTA negotiations end up being "hijacked by one or two sectors" at one point or another. You end up protecting the interest of few industries with strong visibility and lobby groups /1

business-standard.com/article/econom…
Of course #RCEP will not create a “win-win situation for all by ensuring balanced outcomes for both goods and services". No FTA does. You will always have winners and losers, same as with everything else /2
India will also not be able to get a deal by excluding all the products where China dominates the market.
Interesting point on utilisation rates @nicolaskoehler @JonasKasteng
/end
Read 3 tweets
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets

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