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https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1589331227651485696
Early in a season, if someone's on-ice shooting % is at an extreme high or low (say, 17% or 2%), you can be basically certain that it will regress towards (but not to) the mean, and so will their production rate.
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1468729206989369352?s=20&t=CqwdWyDVSW3CMwEMcSXo3g
https://twitter.com/NathanGraviteh/status/1588976363192520704There's no way around it - Guhle/Savard have been caved a lot so far this season. 12% on-ice shooting covers up some things.
https://twitter.com/JasonGregor/status/1423732835005784066
If you watch the goals themselves, it's pretty clear from the number of five hole tricklers (and even an own goal) why this is the case
This is a really tricky player to evaluate. First of all, we know that special teams WAR is tricky, and the Oilers for the past two seasons have ranked highly on the PK while giving up a lot of xG. Could be goaltending, could just be something the model is missing.
Or if you just want to see how your favourite team is projected to perform, use the NHL Depth Chart projector to check out their lineup and how they're projected to rank in every aspect of the game.
If you're not one for analytics and expected goal driving, his production in the past three seasons tells the same story.
https://twitter.com/SWhyno/status/1414606776574611464i have fearlessness when I play beer league. i have heart. i stink
NHLe is a model that translates data from other leagues to project an NHL "equivalency" of point production. From there, it can be used to estimate a player's chance of becoming a star or full-time NHLer
And these head-to-head cards, which let you compare two teams directly based on their underlying numbers (offence- and defence-focused cards also available)
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1232052460606365696Goodrow has a decently strong analytical profile that places him roughly in the 60th percentile of NHL skaters in terms of wins above replacement. He's also done well enough in bigger minutes this season, and will be cheap next year for cap-strapped TB.