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Keyser Soze Profile picture
Keyser Soze
@James56487175
Former PM of $1+ billion; not offering investment advice; my inv positions may change w/o notice. All posts are my opinion. Will never accept/charge $. DYODD
FG Profile picture uncommon sense Profile picture Stephen Leung Profile picture 3 subscribed
May 22 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Very cheap pre-MRE jrs w/ large tonnage & good grades/jurisdictions:

BC:
$DBG.V - likely ~2+ b tons 1%+ Cu Eq
$GOT.V - possibly 100+ m tons 5+ g/t Au
$PEX.V - possibly 1+ b tons 0.5%+ Cu Eq

Arg:
$PMMCF - possibly 500+ m t ~1% Cu Eq

Rare combinations IMO

(eventual tonnage) Credit where credit is due:

@OriginalBraila recently pointed out GOT.V and its billion dollar potential

@D438558409 did the same with DBG.V a few years ago
Mar 22 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It’s amazing how many people miss the forest for the trees. AtlantaFed is back down to ~2% estimated GDP growth w/ FT employment peak & LT inflation expectations in a declining trend despite wartime like deficits & 2 of largest 3 wealth bubbles in history not having popped yet!


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Image Credit default cycle coming up…
Mar 3 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Putting it all together: it should be glaringly obvious what is happening in the capital markets right now. It should also be obvious where the best forward returns will likely be generated.


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Image It took some of the largest speculative bubbles (over a decade in the works) + blow off fiscal stimulus splashing against a multi-year supply chain shock to generate the temporary spike in inflation ‘21-‘23. All bubbles pop & all popped bubbles lead to dis/deflation. Gold is king


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Sep 28, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
When one looks to determine what a share is actually worth in comparison to market price, one needn’t spend days creating the false precision of an ibanker DCF. If the value is not obviously clear from a cursory review, the stock is not cheap enough to be worthy of your DD time… … what’s also essential is understanding that the FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN so there’s actually a probability tree w/ different fair values at each branch not a stagnant single value for the stock. One needs to handicap these rough values/key value drivers/probabilities…
Sep 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Best performing tanker stock over the past 6 months? It’s not:
❌ FRO
❌ STNG
❌ DHT
❌ OET.OL
❌ TRMD
❌ TNK
❌ TNP
❌ ASC
❌ HAFNI.OL
❌ DIS.MI
❌ PXS
❌ INSW
❌ EURN
❌ NAT
Apr 19, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
And this is a gift to get a 3rd chance to prepare your portfolio for the bear market/recession ahead (notice what the SPY did after “2nd chance”👇). If you didn’t listen to me the last 2 times... Unlike permabears, also notice that I wasn’t hedged at all near the recent Oct lows. ImageImageImage For those not paying attention, I ended 2022 up massively (after massive years in ‘20 & ‘21 where I was hardly or not at all hedged). EG 👇

I’m up ~10% YTD in 2023 although down significantly from my YTD highs.
Mar 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
@ed_fin @christankerfund Right here bud @christankerfund More shares than ever and an account that’s near ATH. Funny how a diversified portfolio of dirt cheap investments gets me to ATH consistently even when several of my highest conviction ideas languish for quarters or years.
Mar 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Time to talk about #gold. Gold does well during destabilizing deflations/depressions as real interest rates fall. It is a time tested (longest used currency) store of value (supply grows slowly due to mining activity). Gold is likely to burst to new all time highs as Fed panics. One can physically own gold (always advised) or can own a fund that can be redeemed in gold (eg $PHYS ) or own precious metal streamers (eg $FNV) or own miners. Streamers are expensive now though and miners as a whole have a very bad LT return track record: Image
Mar 18, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
World will be significantly short # of tankers needed for what will be record WW oil demand over the next 3-5+ years (outside of ST hit from global recession). Mid-sized tankers (Suez/Afra) especially (sanctions).

Party’s just beginning.

$TNP $NMM $TK
(The “uninvestable” crew) Although all 3 CURRENTLY have suboptimal capital allocation (low/no dividends), none of them have made materially value destructive actions in the past few years. Shareholder returns will come as we are early in the tanker cycle. Too cheap!

Insider ownership is ~22%, ~12% & ~39%
Mar 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Aside from Andy’s independent quotes, uninformed bashers fail to address need for a “dump” for something to be a mgmt pumpndump.👇 CEO has not sold in YEARS & has no exit liquidity event (>30%!) but for a buyout. What benefits him is long-term substance not short-term hype. Image Agreed
Mar 5, 2023 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Best risk-adj returns are often from investments with a lot of “hair”/“warts”/“red flags”, exactly why they are so cheap to buy! While many can indeed be fatal/frauds, the SKILL is the ability to see beyond bias/groupthink & identify rare opps where issues are not fatal/frauds. Image I’ve certainly made mistakes over decades. But a somewhat diversified portfolio of uncorrelated ugly ducklings has been my best source of alpha.

The groupthink fakers on here who post about only the obvious surface issues but can’t generate verifiable alpha should be ignored.
Mar 5, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
You should ask the people you follow if they have ever been paid by anyone for their posts or paid by any companies they have touted.

I have never been paid by any of the companies I post about. I have never been paid for any of my posts. I have nerve charged a subscription fee. No “finders fees”, no warrants, nada.

I just clip away massive investment returns every year. The portfolio is constantly at or neat all time highs.
Feb 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/n
My Current Top 3 Ideas (Alphabetical)

$DBG.V / $DBLVF
$FEC.TO / $FECCF
$VXTR.V / $VXTRF

What do they have in common?

1) Base businesses likely worth 2x-3x+ current value.

2) Free options w/ better than coin flip odds of making them 5x-10x+. 2/n
DBG has drilled sufficient tonnage at slightly below average Cu/Au grades for the Golden Triangle to be worth a few hundred million at some point.

+ It has 3-4 billion ton potential based on its 3DIP, which is massive compared to most.

+ Economic Sc/Co recovery
Feb 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/n “EUR ING Andrew Carter B.Sc. CEng. MIMMM, MSAIMM SME of Coffey, Tetra Tech noted “Even at moderate recoveries, the HAT deposit has the potential to meet international demand for scandium for the foreseeable future…” 2/n “As scandium is a by-product of a waste stream, recovery is not the fundamental driver, cost is. If it can be demonstrated that scandium can be recovered at an acceptable cost, then scandium has the potential to add significant value to the HAT deposit…”
Feb 6, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Very few understand what just happened here. $DBG.V / $DBLVF

doubleview.ca/doubleview-ach… So, half as valuable per gram as gold?

“Scandium phosphate is a high value product that currently trades for approximately $35 per 1 gram lot, in comparison to gold which currently trades at approximately $60 per gram.”

…
Jan 18, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$FTK

✅ Patented chemistry & DaaS biz
✅ Recent $2+ b/10 year contract to Top 3 NA frac fleet w/ guaranteed min rev & profit margin (in exchange for ~40% interest); likely to vastly exceed min
✅ Other businesses growing too
✅ Near-term flip to + EBITDA on ~450% yoy rev growth ImageImageImageImage ✅ ~$1 m in insider buying since Aug ‘22.
Jan 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The other side of the argument…
Jan 16, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/n
Time to reflect on full cycle:

US just ended a ~12 year bull market that was among largest in history for duration/amplitude (ex-COVID).

This bull market began off of only slightly below average valuation multiples ‘09, as Fed policies interrupted typical full reset… 2/n
This bull market ended with speculative excess blow offs in real estate, tech, SPACs, IPOs, crypto/NFTs, Fed policy errors of too loose monetary policies.

US stock valuations remain extremely high (hidden by profit margin bubble) even after ~1 year of bear market.
Dec 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Playing offense & aggressively trading around a bit as accounts break out to ATH.

I am deep into oil again with my top positions👇 in very cheap (controversial) co’s w/ NT catalysts. May take a big L on 1-2 but using diversification.

$TAL.V $FEC.TO $VLE.TO $PANR.L $NOL.OL $PANR.L is a speculative bet solely on oil flows, decline rates and ultimate economic recovery or not.

$VLE.TO has heightened risk until the current acquisition actually closes.

$FEC.TO has some exploration + Colombia risk.

$TAL.V has Peru risk.

All 5x++ if successful though.
Nov 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
I hedged a LOT last 2 days. I’m usually too early, so keep that in mind 😂 I’m still net long, but only ~35% after mostly unhedged for weeks. Portfolio at ATH.

I warned in Jan & Aug👇, but subsequent drops not as bad as I feared. Biggest down move in this bear yet to occur IMO. You may notice in my Jan comments 👆that I say I never get <50% net long, that should tell you how concerned I am currently about what comes over the next few weeks/months. Or I could be making a mistake 😂

My goal from here is to be flattish if rally continues.
Oct 25, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$AGNC 3Q earnings call:

“Looking at the best returns we’ve ever seen in the agency MBS market… a potential once in a lifetime opportunity.”

Zero credit risk in agency MBS land. They just have to handle the spread/rate volatility until it peaks, that’s the risk. Spending ~48 minutes listening to the $AGNC 3Q earnings call from this morning could be the most lucrative time you could spend right now IMO.