🧵 Thread

There is an IMF standby agreement, but what next?
Part II: Imports, exports, and remittances: solving our balance of payments challenge.

4 billion dollars. Pakistan’s foreign reserves today. Equal to less than four weeks of our import bill. Our balance of payments… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 🧵Tweet 2
(continued from above)

The Exports and FDI challenge

Consider three numbers:
1. Exports: $28 billion (down $4 billion from our last year in government)
2. Remittances: $27 billion (down $4 billion from our last year in government)
3. FDI: $1.3 billion (down 22% versus… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

🧵. Today, despite legal protection & available finances, the KP caretaker govt keeps on stopping the Sehat Card on a week by week basis; the Sehat Card has been benefiting 120,000 patients every month in KP alone.
Proud to see an extensive and independent 3rd party evaluation by… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2. It is incredible what the programme has achieved in such a short time - 2 million plus patients benefiting in KP - and KP's experience of Universal Healthcare being expanded to Punjab, Islamabad, GB, FATA and AJK.
The awareness, hospital readiness, processes, and the impact on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

🧵 A shocking decision sets aside democracy & the fed parliamentary structure of Pakistan. Staggered to see so many federal & provincial entities become party to delaying elections. Even the Constitution's Art. 218(3) & Election Act's Sections 8(c) & 58 have been misinterpreted. 2. Article 218(3) does not allow the ECP to delay elections. It makes it the duty of the ECP to organise and conduct free and fair elections. Surely, with this judgment, ECP has failed in discharging that duty?

۱۔ پشاور میں مفت آٹے کی تقسیم کا پہلا دن۔ افسوس ناک مناظر۔

جب آپ غلط وجوہات کی بنا پر صحیح کام کرتےہیں تو ایسا ہوتا۔ کیا نگراں حکومت 20 ارب روپےکے غیربجٹ اخراجات کی منظوری دےسکتی؟
اگر مستقبل کی اسمبلی اس اخراجات کومنظور نہیں کرتی تو کیاہوگا؟

⁦ ۲۔ اس حقیقت کے علاوہ کہ نگران حکومت غیر قانونی کام کررہی ہے، یہ ضروری ہے کہ مفت آٹا مستحق لوگوں تک پہنچے اور غریبوں کی مدد کی جائے۔ افسوس کی بات یہ ہے کہ وزارتوں کے فروخت ہونے کی افواہوں کے پیش نظر اس کے امکانات زیادہ نہیں ہیں۔

⁦

🧵. KP's new free atta distribution disaster on its first day in Peshawar. This is what happens when you do the right thing for the wrong reasons.
Can a caretaker govt approve a Rs 20 bln unbudgeted expense? What happens if a future assembly doesn't approve this expenditure? 2. Other than the fact the caretaker govt may be doing something blatantly illegal, it is important that the free atta reach the right hands and help the poor. Sadly, it does not seem the chances of that are high given the rumours of ministries being sold.

🧵. Thread on how KP averted default despite every effort of the fed govt; how one measure, treasury single accounting, can massively improve the fiscal balance of the country; & why all statements by the Governor, CM & CS about GoKP not having money for elections are a lie. 2. Pakhtunkhwa's financial issues were driven by fed govt withholding as much as Rs 233 bln in KP funding since regime change, including Rs 32 bln in KP's accepted NFC share.
Resolution of these issues were part of fed govt commitments in the MoU signed on provincial surpluses.

1. Surprised to see our caretaker health minister give an unsubstantiated interview on the Sehat Card.
a. No inquiry has been suppressed. In fact, that there was an inquiry is news to me.
b. To accuse an empanelled hospital to not be fit for animals is a very serious accusation. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2. The health minister must now name the hospital, and immediately remove it from the Sehat Card panel.
And if he was misled, it is his professional duty to man up & say he was wrong. The accusation made is not on me, but on the integrity of the Sehat Card team & State Life.

🧵عمران خان نےپنشن کومسئلےکےطورپرکیوں اجاگرکیاجسےہم حل کریں گے؟
کےپی میں اس سال107ارب روپے کی لاگت کامسئلہ۔ پورے پاکستان میں پنشن کےاخراجات کل 1286ارب روپے ہیں۔

سادہ اصلاحات ۱سال میں شہبازشریف کےتمام جعلی کفایت شعاری کےاقدامات سےزیادہ بچت دے سکتی ہے۔ ۲۔ تبدیلی روکنے کی قیمت بہت زیادہ ادا کرنی پڑے گی۔
صرف 3-2002 میں قومی پنشن بل تقریباً 25 ارب روپے تھا۔

یہ آج 1286 ارب روپے ہے، جو صرف 20 سالوں میں 50 گنا زیادہ ہوگیا۔

ایک اہم تبدیلی ⁦ #KPHealthReforms⁩ میں غیر فعال ہسپتالوں کو چلانے کے لیے آؤٹ سورسنگ ماڈل ہے، خاص طور پر KP کے دور دراز علاقوں میں۔

یہ tweets سابق فاٹا، چترال اور کوہستان کے 19 ہسپتالوں میں ہونے والی تبدیلی اور حاصل کیے گئے شاندار نتائج کو بیان کرتے ہیں ۔ ۲۔ پاکستان بھر دور دراز علاقوں میں سرکاری ہسپتال روایتی پبلک سیکٹر ماڈل میں کام نہیں کرسکتے۔

ڈاکٹرز ٹرانسفر ہونے کے لیے ہر حربہ استعمال کرنے کی کوشش کرتے ہیں۔ ہسپتال سیاسی بنیادوں پر نچلے سٹاف سے بھرے پڑے ہیں۔ پیچیدہ سرکاری بجٹ کے نظام کی وجہ سے بلڈنگ خستہ حالت میں ہیں۔

🧵. One of the most significant #KPHealthReforms is the outsourcing model to run dysfunctional hospitals, in particular in far flung areas of KP; this thread describes the transformation in 19 hospitals across ex-FATA, Chitral & Kohistan, and the outstanding results achieved. 2. Govt hospitals will not work in the traditional public sector model in the periphery, across Pakistan.
Doctors do anything to be transferred out; hospitals become full of lower staff hired by politicians; infrastructure is typically abysmal because of complex budget processes.

🧵 Why did IK highlight pensions as an issue we will solve? The issue in KP, costing Rs 107 bln this year, is only the tip of the iceberg. Pension costs across all Pak govts are Rs 1286 bln this year.
Simple reform could save more in a year than all of SS fake austerity measures. 2. The cost of inertia is huge. In 2002-3 the national pension bill was around Rs 25 billion.
It is Rs 1286 bln today, an increase of over 50x in just 20 years.

🧵. Why MTIs work? Because doctors are in charge of their own hospitals & governance is devolved to impartial boards.
In MTI Mardan, a hospital that was almost dysfunctional with an ANP CM from the district, in the last year alone, over 200 working beds have been added (cont)... 2. Just operational recently, a brand new gastroenterology ward...

1. Health Reform: MTIs
What has Imran Khan done for KP health? Despite lies & propaganda by blackmailers & many remaining challenges; KP health system is the most improved in Pakistan.

This is the 2000 bed MTI LRH; it alone treated 200+ patients after the police lines blast. 2. LRH is KP's oldest public sector hospital, built 1926. The story goes that the hospital was the idea Lady Reading, after she fell off a horse on a trip in Peshawar, replacing an Egerton hospital in the same place.
In 2013, facilities needed massive improvement (2nd picture).

1. From a peak of 843 incidents of killing, to just 78 a decade later. That's the difference Imran Khan and PTI helped make to KP. That may answer the question of what happened to the Rs 417 bln. 2. In just 4 years since PTI assumed power in 2013, incidents reduced from a 4 year plateau of 225-250, to 42. A 6x straight line reduction.
Remember, this is your front-line province. The first that bleeds when Pakistan is turbulent. And the one that keeps Pakistan safe.

۱۔ پاکستان کی معاشی تاریخ کے بدترین 10 مہینے۔

صرف ڈار اور مفتاح پر الزام لگانا ناانصافی ہے،یہ سب شامل ہیں۔ PM@ImranKhanPTI⁩ نے کامیابی کے ساتھ کرونا اور جنگ عظیم کے بعد کی سب سے گہری معاشی گراوٹ کا کامیابی سے مقابلہ کیا۔
ایک کہانی:
⁦ ۲: پہلے دن سے سمجھ سے بالاتر فیصلہ سازی۔

حکومت کے پہلے دن، مالی سال کے وسط میں، شہباز شریف نے عوامی پزیرائی کے لیے تنخواہ اور پنشن میں 10 فیصد اضافے کا اعلان کیا۔ یکساں وفاقی اور صوبائی تنخواہوں میں اضافے کی روایات کے پیش نظر سالانہ 400 ارب روپے کا نقصان!

1. The worst 10 months in Pakistan's economic history. Unfair to blame Dar. Unfair to blame Miftah. It's all of them. Everyone who lied through their teeth as PMIK successfully battled COVID & the deepest recession since WW2.
A story worth recalling:

2. From Day 1, it was cowboy decision making.
Day 1, in the middle of a financial year, Shahbaz Sharif announced a populist 10% increase in pay & a 10% increase in pensions. Given the traditions of uniform federal and provincial pay increases, a Rs 400 bln per year hit!

۱۔ جانناچاہتے ہیں کہ فیڈریشن کوکیسے نقصان پہنچایا جاتا ہے؟

دہشتگردی سے اثر انداز فرنٹ لائن صوبے کو نظر انداز،فنڈنگ ​​کے 230ارب روپےہڑپ،NFC حصے کواحسان کےطور پر پیش اور استعمال پر سوالات;اور یہ سب اسی صوبےکادورہ کرتےہوئےجب وہاں خون بہا ہو!

417 ارب روپےکےدعوے کاپردہ فاش۔۔ ۲۔ شہباز شریف نے دہشتگردی کےخلاف جنگ کےبدلے 7ویں NFC میں کےپی کو ملنے والا %1 اضافی حصہ آئین سے بالادست پیش کیا، جسے صرف سیکیورٹی پر خرچ ہونا چاہیے تھا، اور کےپی کے تمام مسائل کو حل کرنے کے لیے کافی ہونا چاہیے تھا۔

جان بوجھ کر گمراہ کن!

1. For all the talk of technocrat govts, consider. Sehat Card was a small experiment in 4 districts for a small section of the population.
It took the political leadership of two sets of politicians to create Pakistan's most successful health programme. Not unelected technocrats.

https://twitter.com/ShahramKTarakai/status/1623598365807357952

2. CM @PervezKhattakPK and Health Minister @ShahramKTarakai took the decision to expand the project to below the poverty line recipients in every district of Pakhtunkhwa. The roll out was managed in just over a year, by 2017.

۱۔ ادادوشمار میں صحت کارڈ کی کہانی

پاکستان کے ہیلتھ انشورنس کے معجزے سے کل 57 لاکھ مریض مستفید ہوئے ہیں، جسے ⁦@ImranKhanPTI⁩ نے چیمپیئن کیا

- پنجاب میں 38 لاکھ (پہلی تصویر)
- پختونخوا میں 19 لاکھ (دوسری تصویر)

جنوری 2023 میں کےپی کے 20 لاکھ مریض مستفید ہوئے۔ ۲۔ یونیورسل کوریج نے رسائی کو آسان اور سادہ بنادیا۔
دسمبر 2022 تک:

ہر ماہ 400,000 مریض
• پنجاب میں 283,000 ماہانہ
• کے پی میں 116,000 ماہانہ

کرونا کی وبا کےبعد استعمال کی شرح دوگنی،لوگوں کو ملک بھر میں 1000 ہسپتالوں میں معیاری صحت تک آسان رسائی مل گئی۔

1. Want to know how to hurt a federation?
Ignore the federating unit on the frontline, usurp Rs 230 bln of its funding, portray its NFC share as a favour & question its utilisation. Do it while visiting the province where blood has been spilled.
Exposing the Rs 417 bln claim... 2. Shahbaz Sharif portrayed the 1% extra share for KP in the 7th NFC in lieu of the war on terror was a supra-constitutional favour, that should have been ring-fenced & spent on security, & should have been enough to solve all of KP's issues.
Deliberately misleading!

1. The Sehat Card story in numbers.

A total of 5.7+ million users have benefited from Pakistan's health insurance miracle, championed by @ImranKhanPTI.

- 3.8 million in Punjab (1st slide)
- 1.9 million in KP (2nd slide)

KP will have seen its 2 millionth user in January 2023. 2. Universal coverage made access easier & simpler. By Dec '22:

400000 users every month:
- 283000 monthly users in Punjab
- 116000 monthly users in KP

Utilisation rates doubled post pandemic, giving people easy access to quality healthcare; at 1000 hospitals countrywide.