Some thoughts on new potential NI Protocol deal, and whether Parliament will get to vote on it. Reports suggest that there will be a Command Paper that will outline the deal. But as mentioned before, the devil will be in the detail of what legal instruments the EU & UK use to reinterpret the Protocol- seems clear the treaty text isn’t changing. More on that later.

Just to shed a little Parliamentary procedural light on this, a short🧵

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1503470110304088070

The Statutory Instrument (SI) in question was made under the made affirmative procedure. This means it became law on 7 February when it was laid, but to continue to be law, it needs House of Commons approval within 28 days (not counting adjournments).
parliament.uk/site-informati…

I’ve seen some excitable reporting about action the EU might take if the UK breaches the NI Protocol/triggers Article 16, with warnings about suspending the TCA/parts of it. Here’s a short(ish) thread on what Withdrawal Agreement & TCA actually say….(1/7) The TLDR version is, you can suspend parts of the TCA if not complying with WA/Protocol obligations, but that’s a long way down the track and only if (a) an arbitration panel ruling has gone against UK & (b) the UK ignores/does not comply with that ruling (2/7)

Long(ish)🧵on NI Protocol. No point trying to comment on Internal Market Bill until we see it, but some of the commentary about the Withdrawal Agreement & NI Protocol I have seen suggests there are misconceptions about what the UK & EU have already signed up to & what can change The WA is a treaty that has been ratified by both sides & mostly comes into force in January 2020, but some (small) parts are in force already. While the future relationship agreement (FRA)may build on/align with parts of it, it will stand deal or no deal. It’s not temporary.

So main points to take from the Irish protocol are: The preamble has changed slightly, emphasises this protocol is temporary, it is not the future relationship, doesn't want to break up the UK single market. Preambles are not legally binding, but important for interpretation. Did we say this protocol is TEMPORARY! Well we really mean it

Some interesting snippets from the new White Paper on the forthcoming Implementation Bill.....
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… On the financial settlement, the Paper talks of the UK's financial commitments, and legal requirements but there seem to be a few nods to Raab's comments about no payments if no future agreement. Bill would only provide for payments agreed to in a withdrawal agreement

Just published from the Commission: Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019 | European Commission europa.eu/!Vu87RB via @EU_Commission These two headlines tell the story well.....
'there MIGHT be a transition period'

It's here, it's like Brexit Christmas #WhitePaper #Brexmas
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Key excperts on #NorthernIreland #irishborder
Island of Ireland will remain one epidemiological unit

At @ChathamHouse for @InstituteGC (Tony Blair) talk- ‘in defence of globalisation.’ Venue is packed, no surprise there. #CHEvents Tony, starts with a joke about Boris Johnson #topical. Onto the serious stuff, ‘globalisation is on the back foot’, difficult to know if we’re on the crest of the wave or if it’s a growing phenomenon, he fears it is the latter

European Council Guidelines: A thread. Firstly, yes we (the EU 27) want to have a a deep a relationship with the UK as possible including on security...... (1) But....the UK red lines mean there will be friction. Which we think will be damaging to the UK... (2)