I’ve dealt with and analyzed similar situations (shorts) before. I’m familiar with the accounting rules.
Just because something is permissible doesn’t make it beneficial…
Apr 18, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Let me simplify what is the elephant in the room in China: the seeds of discontent are firmly planted. Political risk is as high as it’s been in the last 12 years.
There’s a lot of noise, and the doom gloom click baiters don’t see. They just self satisfy themselves.
This is a moment of political vulnerability. And they know it. They have 40 years of goodwill, but that might be tested. We shall see.
Apr 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Wonder how Tokyo’s Four Seasons Hotel manages to have basically no homeless people, no giant rats, no drunks, no drug addicts, no litter, no weed clouds, one blasting loud music.
Meanwhile, Japan remains closed to the world because of their covid policies
This despite the fact KayekandHeynes belief that there is no death, disease, suffering - only milk and honey - in Japan japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/04/0…
Feb 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Twitter's annual revenue is up 16x since its IPO in 2013.
$TWTR stock? down -22% since IPO.
This game is hard.
STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN
::nearly 10 years later::
WTF!?
Feb 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Pro tip to left leaning folks contemplating leaving the USA: there is no perfect hedge. Also, leaving isn’t “hedging”; leaving is abandoning your core position.
Also, NZ is more fascistic than USA.
True hedging is maintaining your core position but setting up option B.
Pro tip to right leaning folks contemplating leaving the USA: there is no perfect hedge. Also, leaving isn’t “hedging”; leaving is abandoning your core position.
Also, NZ is less free than USA.
True hedging is maintaining your core position but setting up option B.
An instructive mistake I made years ago, this is a self reminder (thread):
I had been short on and off this company (I used to endearingly refer to as 'Fraud Mountain') over 4 years. I was very lucky (not smart) in my timing - both in entries and exits.
my first time around in 2010/2011 - the stock exhibited a lot of 'mo', but the income stmt vs cash flow, not to mention balance sheet, seemed like red flags. not to mention other accounting red flags, suggesting possible revenue misstatements, capitalization of earnings, etc.
On one hand: i respect the $FB stonk pumpers conviction. none of them are capitulating publicly (or even admitting they were wrong!).
OTOH: Stubbornness is a helluva drug, when the facts change, etc etc
Jan 6, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
There’s been a lot of if you liked ___ stock at 100 you will like it better at 40, -60% off its highs.
I’m going to invert this. If you liked shorting terminal melting ice cube sh1tco at 100 , you will like it better at 150, 50% above your entry.
The last few days remind me of a year ago…in reverse.
Market feels like it’s gunning for the weak, just as it was 1 year ago. We only saw the body bags publicly revealed a few months later. Took time.
And just like a year ago, the “gun for the weak” actually began in q4 2020
Jan 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Hong Kong/China is committing suicide, they have no one to blame but themselves. (remember, HK = China, so HK’s foolishness is China’s)
Let me translate “Myth 1”: the Chinese people went from starving poor 40 years ago, to poor but not starving, today. Depending on who you ask, this is thx to CCP or the Chinese ppl.
Starving ppl tend to worry more about making ends meet than the right to sh1tpost abt Beijing.
Aug 19, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
(Unsurprisingly) barely no mention of Hong Kong on fintwit…
despite the fact there’s something of a crisis of confidence in the government at the moment:
These are the kinds of actions that undermine confidence in the system.
And bring about political change, one way or the other.
It’s not 17 year olds with textbook understanding of govt and no real world experience.
Aug 19, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
CFA and MBA are Labor, who think they’re Capital
That is all I have to say about that.
Aug 16, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
I’m not sure which surprises me more:
(1) the # of basic factual inaccuracies in that Soros China op-ed
(2) fintwit (even soros haters) oooing and ahhing over it… unaware how uninformed they look when they quote incorrect info…
Fact check this: “never went abroad”
