Brexit's accidental shelf life.

Brexit could have endured. But the failures of Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove to build a vision of a post-EU Britain means it now won't.

A thread on:

Missed opportunities
Why that matters
Demographics
What happens next Theresa May's missed opportunity

After the referendum, Theresa May became PM. As a pragmatic remainer turned pragmatic brexiter, she was perfect to build a cross-party/voter consensus. She chose not to...

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a sign of Russian weakness, not strength.

•A thread covering:
•2016 hubris
•A renewed NATO
•A renewed EU
•Economic failure
•Diminishing energy influence.
#UkraineInvasion Russia's 2016 hubris

In 2016, Russia felt victorious. Its money, influence and misinformation programmes delivered a Trump (anti-Nato) US president, and Brexit (anti-EU) in the UK.

But Putin misjudged the fallout.

There's lots of talk that Europe is dependent on Russia for gas. But if I'm reading the IEA data correctly...

Russia provides 1/4 of the EU's present gas needs.

But gas produces just 12% of the EU's electricity.

So Russia = only 3% of EU electricity needs.

Also... That's based on the EU's Q1 2020 energy mix (the last stable data, pre-Covid impacts)

So that's winter data - when the EU needs more gas than usual.

As Europe comes into spring, its gas needs should drop.

So 3% of electricity is relatively easily replaceable...

Tories are now defending dumping sewage in our rivers on two spurious grounds.

Here's a quick thread on their two lies - from me - someone who's worked in water infra for years.

1. Unlimited cost risk to consumers (lie)

2. Needs a detailed plan, not just legal obligation (lie) Tory lie 1. "We voted to keep dumping sewage in rivers to protect consumers from potential unlimited price hikes"

This is a lie. Prices in the water sector are set by the state (Ofwat) in price reviews that account for infra-investment plans on a five year cycle.

The Republican Coup: Pre Election planning.

The party took control of postal services and reduced access in areas likely to vote Democrat.

It also put out drop boxes marked "official" to trick Democrat voters into handing their votes to Republicans to filter them out.

1/7 The Republican Coup: The Launch

The Party ordered that postal votes be counted late in key states.

The Party told Republicans not to vote by post.

The Party then declared victory before the resulting democrat-heavy postal votes were counted.

2/7

The Biden win is bad for the Tories in four big ways.

1. Biden remembers Johnson's racism towards Obama.

2. Biden supports the rules-based global order.

3. Biden represents a win for competence over nationalist bluster.

4. Biden won't rush a trade deal that hurts Irish peace. Biden dislikes Johnson because Johnson is racist. Remember, he was VP under Obama when Johnson disregarded Obama for being black.

So don't expect Biden to hide his disdain for Johnson behind the scenes or be kind about UK policy.

https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1325137653851828230?s=19

Big problems for the Republican Party that stem from this election.

1. Trump may turn on them for letting him down.
2. Trump may stick around like a bad smell.
3. Georgia and Texas are becoming swing states.
4. The popular vote can't be defeated forever. Trump may now turn on Republicans for letting him down.

Donald Trump will not accept he was at fault. So he'll blame imaginary fraud.

The Republican Party will move on, will not push forward Trump electors in defiance of state votes, so Trump may attack them for weakness.

Brexit creates four big strategic problems for the UK. In order of importance they are:

1. The likely end of the UK
2. The loss of national security
3. The loss of future energy security
4. Economic harm

And yes, economic harm really is only fourth.

A thread... Brexit will likely end the UK.

This was widely expected of brexit before the vote in 2016, since Scotland exposed to Westminster (English) government without EU protection was likely to want independence. Polling now shows a big shift towards independence as a result.

Manifesto For Opposition.

1. Electoral Reform
2. Climate Change
3. Reinvigorate the State
4. Internationalism
5. Devolve Power
6. Rebuild NHS

Opposition parties need to come together to find common ground. Here's how:

1/8 Manifesto For Opposition.

Electoral Reform

There is fundamental right behind votes mattering. All opposition parties can benefit from a less extreme electoral system.

Agree a platform across parties, and this will ease future co-operation.

2/8