1. My own thoughts on what *should* be and what *is* for Israel-Palestine. A thread. 2. Sane people agree that a 2-State Solution (2SS) offers the best chance of peace. I've always endorsed the idea and still do, and I'm in favor of anything I think makes that possible. But it is absolutely not a guarantee, and getting there will be extremely difficult.

Who's ready for Volume VI of Admiral Raoul Castex's magnum opus, Théories Stratégiques? Who? Only France's genius 20th century naval strategist, who's unknown outside France bc he wrote too much and most ppl can't bother. But that's what I'm here for. Very long thread: 1. This vol is entitled "Strategic Mix" (Mélanges stratégiques) which is stuff that wasn't meant to be included in this work, the last vol of which was supposed to be vol 5. But he couldn't help himself. Vol 6 post-dates 1940, which should make it particularly interesting.

Time now for vol. 5 of Raoul Castex's Théories Stratégiques. This volume is entitled, "The Sea Against the Land." And it's a big one. The longest. 1. Couteau-Bégarie, the editor, says the thesis is this: "The sea was the agent of execution and realization of the Dispersit superbos proclaimed by the Magnificat. Yes, 'he counfounded the superbs,' and the sea was the instrument of his will...it saved in all circumstances...

1. #Mali has appointed General El Hadj ag Gamou as governor of #Kidal. It's an interesting choice. Who is he? What does this mean? A thread. 2. Gamou is a Tuareg from the Imghad caste. Tuareg society is divided by caste and tribe. Imghad tribes are vassal tribes. The noble tribes (in Mali) are the Illelan. The top-tier nobles are Ifoghas.

1. Hamas and Hezbollah have mastered asymmetrical warfare. Militarily weaker than Israel, they have found a key vulnerability by encrusting themselves amid civilian populations at a time when... 2... global public opinion demands a maximalist approach to discerning between combattant and presumably innocent civilians. Moreover...

Malian Tuareg 101. A 🧵 1. There are IIRC three main Tuareg confederations in Mali. I've seen no real data re: the relative population sizes of the three.

1. It's time for my giant thread on Volume 3 of Raoul Castex's Théories Strategiques. This vol is "External Factors of Strategy." It's a big one. And may prove to be the most interesting. Why? 2. Castex insists that while ideally politics/policy should take a back seat to strategy once fighting starts, the reality is that for better or for worse, politics never cease to impinge on strategy. That's reality. That's what he wants to talk about here in this volume.

1. I really, really don't like this article. It demonstrates an irrational paranoia on the part of some French that I think is beneath them. It also suggests both a desire on the part of the US to see 🇫🇷 leave Africa, and it...

https://twitter.com/revueconflits/status/1696191661179568202

2. ..assimilates my argument that it's probably in 🇫🇷's best interest to leave with an alleged desire on the part of "Washington" to neutralize 🇫🇷 and have it subordinate its interests to US strategic priorities, which are in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

1. Buckle up. Ready for Volume 2 of France's genius naval theorist Raoul Castex's magnum opus, Théories Stratégiques? Notes are below in this thread. I'll be chipping away at it progressively. 2. Volume 2 is about maneuver. What's that?

1. Finally cracked open Raoul Castex, France's 20th-century naval genius, now that I finally have a complete set of his work. Holy cow. The man is a giant. I'm going to use this thread to post juicy bits as I read. 2. "Strategy is like the light spectrum. It has an infrared, which is the realm of politics, and an ultraviolet, which is that of tactics....

A thread on #BurkinaFaso and 🇨🇵 and 🇺🇲 security assistance. 1. It is my understanding that 🇨🇵 and 🇺🇲 security assistance was always very limited and in retrospect never scaled to make a significant difference.

Thread: The French Army Chief's new vision, or, what's the deal with the Legos? 1. French General Pierre Schill gave a talk Monday at which he outlined his vision for how the French Army needs to adapt to emerging realities (i.e. Ukraine).

1. I've tweeted that India and Egypt have a ton of stuff they could give to Ukraine and don't. Lots of ppl jumped on me and said, "you ignorant/racist person, dont you know X has perfectly legitimate reasons a,b, and c for not arming Ukraine?" 2. Every country has good reasons not to arm Ukraine. Only two countries' hesitance to is subject to constant articles and condemnation. Germany and Israel.

1. I just saw that Narvik movie on Netflix. Liked it a lot. It's a chapter of WW2 history that is too often overlooked. It's 1940...and British, French, Polish soldiers are performing magnificently, and winning. 2. And let's not forget the Norwegians, who did not go down gently.

1. Did the Biden Admin ask Egypt to provide weapons to Ukraine? If not, why not? If so, what was Egypt's response? 2. Egypt has large modern air defense arsenals, over 1,000 Abrams, the works. Egypt MAKES ITS OWN Abrams.

Neither 🇫🇷 nor the 🇬🇧 produces heavy tanks. I don't think 🇮🇹 does either. I believe 🇩🇪 still does, but with limited capacity. Maintaining somewhere in Eur. a production line with large capacity--even if most of that time that capacity is wasted and costly--would be worthwhile. Correction: 🇩🇪 doesn't make new chassis...apparently only 🇬🇷 does.

1. Ok, French people, let's have this out. In French I am aware of three names for the same thing. Cafe au lait, grande crème, and café crème. Let's call them A, B, and C. 2. At various times I have walked into a cafe and asked for A, B, or C. Often I am met with blanks looks. Then, if I'd asked for A they'd say, oh, you mean B. Or C. Or whatever. Ditto if I ask for B or C.

1. Fantastic interview in French with General Michel Yakovleff about the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine. Some highlights:

https://twitter.com/IRSEM1/status/1584820130919239680

2. First, who's Yakovleff? He's one of the French Army's luminaries. He wrote this book, which is something of a strategy and tactics manual. He puts a lot of thought into what he says. Ahem @PrincipeDebase

1. What shocks me (but does not surprise me) about many of the reactions to the Burkina coup is that so many mistake France for the enemy, as if it is France that is slaughtering civilians in Burkina and Mali and has made large swathes of the countryside unlivable. 2. They find the decline of France's role gratifying while dismissing the magnitude of the immediate existential threat.

Good news. (Ps. He said armored vehicles, not tanks.)

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1542517835770933248

"armored vehicles" could include tanks but I rather doubt that's what he had in mind.

1. About NATO high readiness forces and calculating how many there can be, I just want to point out some challenges to coming up with numbers that I've encountered in my work. 2. The most critical thing to understand is that total force size is not a meaningful indicator of anything. What matters is the portion of a force that's "ready" at any point in time, and what "ready" means.