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Nick P Bassill Profile picture
Nick P Bassill
@NickPBassill
Meteorologist | Director Of R&D, UAlbany's Center Of Excellence | Affiliated With @nysmesonet | Mostly Weather | Politics & WI Sports #gobadgers | Thoughts Mine
Sep 17, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
I've seen some understandable comparisons between #Teddy's future and Hurricane Sandy (2012), so let me discuss how they're a bit similar, and also why they're different.

Sandy was known for its significant G(E)FS vs EC track splits, where the latter correctly had a "left hook" 2) Conventional wisdom said the EC was right because of (a) higher resolution, and/or (b) better data assimilation. Many still believe these things about Sandy.

But, you can get "correct" Sandy tracks with GEFS initial conditions+90 km grid+EC physics: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
Aug 24, 2020 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
So #Laura's current position has been repeatedly south of what models forecast. Let's examine why that might be the case.

Look at this GFS trend in upper-level PV (shaded) and 850 vorticity valid at 00Z. Note how #Marco gets stronger with each forecast, and Laura dips south. As #Marco is (correctly) shown to be stronger, latent heat release increases, and contributes to the upper level ridge to the north of #Laura (east of Marco). You can see this by the steady increase in deep blues (low PV values) with a stronger Marco. (same loop here as above)