Dr Rob Whitehurst Profile picture
Heliocentrist. Erstwhile astrophysicist now a somewhat agricultural scientist and investor.
Dec 16, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Admissions to London hospitals starting to trend higher than you would expect from the number of cases ten days earlier, so Omicron is either putting more people in hospital than each case of Delta or doing it quicker. The log axis version.
Clearly the projection is breaking down for Omicron when based on data from Delta.
Dec 16, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
I saw this story a while ago. My question is if you don't catch covid easily outdoors how exactly did the deer catch it?

The coronavirus is rife in common US deer nature.com/articles/d4158… Inadequate ventilation in US forests?
Aug 12, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
Italian Epidemic curve still shows that hardest hit provinces (eg Lombardia) still have the highest incidence of new cases. If Lombardy had reached HIT it should have fewer new cases than reltaively unprotected regions.
epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sa… The point to note is that the epidemic is static. A living epidemic is dynamic and cases in different provinces should rise and fall like a Mexican Wave. This is an epidemic frozen in time by a lockdown. Not one that’s been driven by rising levels of immunity.
Jul 25, 2020 8 tweets 5 min read
Ioannidis et al (2020) forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/1… make the claim that the IFR from Spanish Flu was ~100 times worse than that if #COVID19. This claim seems to stem from estimates of 100 million deaths due to Burnet (1979) pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/85614/ and
Johnson & Mueller (2002) ../1 jstor.org/stable/44446153 .
But these are extreme high end estimates. Patterson & Pyle (1991) jstor.com/stable/44447656 estimate no more than 30 million deaths, and report several lower estimates ../2