@BBGIntelligence Equity Research Analyst covering Renewable Fuels. All views are my own.
May 16 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
🧵What is the impact of the EPA's 2026 Biomass-Based Diesel (BBD) Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO)?
Between unit confusion, the nesting structure, and the carryforward bank there's a lot to unpack when seeing headline numbers of 4.65B vs. 5.25B.
Let's break down RIN supply and demand 👇
#OOTT #EFT #OATT #RINs
2026 RVO Reported Figures:
- Industry ask: 5B+ gallons (1 gal = 1.6 RINs)
- *Reported* submission to OMB: 4.65B gal
But our modeling suggests:
US production (5.4B gal) → 3.9B gal
+2023 record imports (1B gal) → 4.9B gal
2025 Reference:
EPA projected → 3.35B gal
Fuel demand adjusted → 3.54B gal
How can it be as low as 3.9B vs. 5.4B of production? Let’s dissect 2025 first 👇
May 1, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Here's our #40B and modified #GREET model read-through:
(1/5)
#OOTT #OOAT #EFT
*The model's sample inputs should be scrutinized*
We add 300,000 MT of CO2 reduced for ATJ CCS.
HEFA feedstocks appear low and CCS uplifts are above company projections.
Users can add location data for fuel sold and energy used, but feedstock transport is a estimated average.
Feb 21, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Starting in ’25 biomass-based diesel imports lose a $1/gal tax credit while US producers see parts slip to an emissions factor.
Advantaged producers may receive $0.60/gal and some as little as $0.
🧵on impact to #RINs, feedstocks and RD margins.
(1/10)
#OOAT #OOTT #EFT
Producers will seek out advantaged (low CI feedstock). While availability has risen, advantaged feedstocks can only support ~190kbd of biomass-based diesel (BBD) vs. domestic production above 300 kbd. Pretreatment capabilities are no longer a significant hurdle.
(2/10)
Apr 20, 2023 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
US renewable diesel is approaching a breaking point. Things aren’t adding up. Let’s dive in with some highlights from my renewable diesel primer, now live on the @TheTerminal.
🧵 (1/15)
Domestic production has tripled since 2019, reaching 95 kbd in 2022. My analysis of project timelines indicate supply could double this year and reach 320 kbd in 2025. (2/15)