EPA just dropped a game-changing 2026–27 RVO proposal.

Here's what it means for RIN prices, biofuel margins, and why domestic feedstocks just got a huge leg up.

Long thread (with calculations)

#OOTT #EFT #RINs #OOAT 🏆 Better off:
1 - D4/5/6 RIN prices
2 - US fats, oils, greases (notably soybean oil)
3 - Renewable diesel (RD) & biodiesel (BD) margins

🚫 Worse off:
1 - Foreign feedstocks
2 - Imported biofuels

⚠️ Remaining overhang:
1 - 2024–25 small refinery exemptions (SREs)
2 - Possible changes from 7/8 public hearing to 10/31 final rule target

Now, let’s break this all down 👇

(2/15)

🧵What is the impact of the EPA's 2026 Biomass-Based Diesel (BBD) Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO)?

Between unit confusion, the nesting structure, and the carryforward bank there's a lot to unpack when seeing headline numbers of 4.65B vs. 5.25B.

Let's break down RIN supply and demand 👇

#OOTT #EFT #OATT #RINs 2026 RVO Reported Figures:

- Industry ask: 5B+ gallons (1 gal = 1.6 RINs)
- *Reported* submission to OMB: 4.65B gal

But our modeling suggests:

US production (5.4B gal) → 3.9B gal
+2023 record imports (1B gal) → 4.9B gal

2025 Reference:

EPA projected → 3.35B gal
Fuel demand adjusted → 3.54B gal

How can it be as low as 3.9B vs. 5.4B of production? Let’s dissect 2025 first 👇

Here's our #40B and modified #GREET model read-through:

(1/5)
#OOTT #OOAT #EFT *The model's sample inputs should be scrutinized*

We add 300,000 MT of CO2 reduced for ATJ CCS.

HEFA feedstocks appear low and CCS uplifts are above company projections.

Users can add location data for fuel sold and energy used, but feedstock transport is a estimated average.

Starting in ’25 biomass-based diesel imports lose a $1/gal tax credit while US producers see parts slip to an emissions factor.

Advantaged producers may receive $0.60/gal and some as little as $0.

🧵on impact to #RINs, feedstocks and RD margins.

(1/10)

#OOAT #OOTT #EFT Producers will seek out advantaged (low CI feedstock). While availability has risen, advantaged feedstocks can only support ~190kbd of biomass-based diesel (BBD) vs. domestic production above 300 kbd. Pretreatment capabilities are no longer a significant hurdle.
(2/10)

US renewable diesel is approaching a breaking point. Things aren’t adding up. Let’s dive in with some highlights from my renewable diesel primer, now live on the @TheTerminal.

#OOTT, #RenewableDiesel, #RINs, #LCFS

🧵 (1/15) Domestic production has tripled since 2019, reaching 95 kbd in 2022. My analysis of project timelines indicate supply could double this year and reach 320 kbd in 2025. (2/15)