Most traders overcomplicate crypto.

They chase “the next big coin,” follow influencer picks, or try to time every move.

But what if a simple approach could outperform Bitcoin?

Here are the rules: Before we dive in, I post daily insights on crypto trading.

If you want to cut through the noise, consider following me.

This is Larry Williams.

A swing trader who turned $10,000 into $1,100,000 in just one year.

Here’s his story and how one of his most famous strategies performs on crypto: 1/ Audited Returns

Plenty of traders claim big numbers.
Larry’s are audited.

In 1987, he achieved a 11,376% return.

What's crazier?

His daughter made 1,000% a decade later.

Crypto is a goldmine for trading.

High volatility.
Plenty of inefficiencies.
Immature market.

But there’s a catch: a lack of reliable data.

Here's how we deal with this and build robust strategies: 1/ Start with an idea-first approach.

With limited history, you can’t afford to "mine" strategies from the data. You’ll just find noise that looks like signal.

Every strategy should start with a clear hypothesis:
→ Why will this make money?
→ When should it work?

The most powerful edge in systematic trading isn’t a secret indicator.

It’s portfolio construction.

Here’s why combining simple, uncorrelated strategies is the true holy grail: The most robust strategies tend to be simple.

Few entry/exit rules. Clear logic. Repeatable behavior.

But simplicity comes with tradeoffs:

Can a two-decade-old stock strategy still work in crypto?

I tested Larry Connors’ famous 2-period RSI strategy on crypto.

Here’s what happened (and how I improved it): Larry Connors' RSI(2) strategy is one of the most cited mean reversion systems in stock trading.

But how does it hold up in crypto, a market with 24/7 trading, higher volatility and slightly different behaviour

Let's test it:

The best strategies don’t start in code.

They start with a clear idea of how markets behave and in what conditions there is an edge.

Let me explain: When you build from the idea up, you anchor your expectations in market behaviour, not just backtest stats.

That gives you context during live trading:
→ Is this drawdown normal?
→ Is this a regime mismatch?
→ Or is the strategy actually broken?

Mean reversion is an underrated strategy logic in crypto markets.

Here’s a full breakdown of the 3-Bars Setup: a mean reversion crypto strategy we use to stabilise a breakout-heavy portfolio.

Here's how it works: 2/ What is a mean reversion strategy?

A strategy that speculates on a return to the mean.

It is based on the assumption that a quick and stronger than average move in one direction tends to be corrected.

Crypto is the most profitable asset class for traders.

But it's maturing fast and the edge won't last forever.

Here’s how you can build, test, and deploy systematic portfolios that survive every regime: 1) Start with edge. Not coins.

Before touching crypto data define the edge you want to trade:

• Long-term Momentum
• Short-term Momentum
• Mean reversion

The idea comes first. The code second.

Mean Reversion Long strategies:

How to profit from uncertainty... It's all about volatility

These strategies don't need directional momentum.

But the more volatile the markets, the better.

Momentum: The most robust edge in crypto trading

Momentum is the tendency of an asset’s price to continue moving in the same direction once it has started.

There are 2 basic types of momentum:

a) Short-term momentum
In crypto, a momentum lasting 1-5 days, the initial price explosion before the first big correction.

b) Long-term momentum
In crypto, this is a period of several weeks, often called trend following.

What are the main differences between short-term and long-term momentum?

Win rate
Expectancy
Absolute returns 1/ Short-term momentum: Breakout Lite strategy

Win rate: 49%
Expectancy: 1,4%
Absolute returns (ROR): 49%

This strategy trades top 20 biggest coins by volume. To the long side.

Average holding time: 2 days

Very robust approach tradable on commodities.

1/ ROBUXIO LITE: Launch NOW

Price: FREE 2/ Portfolio of 3 strategies:

Breakout, Trend Following, Mean Reversion.

Long only.

30% allocation per strategy.

No leverage.

How to build short-term momentum strategy?

1. Choose the tool you use to measure momentum:

Start with a momentum indicator: RSI, CCI,... 2. Define the level at which strong momentum enters the market:

Short-term momentum is all about initial momentum change.

The stronger the momentum change, the higher the probability of a winning trade.

We trade 7-figure accounts for institutional clients in crypto.

Here are 13 action steps we use to build our service: 1. Idea first approach to strategy building:

Absolute basis.

If you only have a few years of data, you can't build a data mined strategy. The following robustness tests would prove nothing.

You could easily pass (or fail) them just based on luck.

You need to know what strategy you want to build and what market situations it will profit from.

One of the biggest myths of trading:

Always use stop loss

Detail analysis: 1) Stop loss hurts performance

There are not many cases where the use of stop loss adds an edge to a strategy.

It almost always makes most parameters worse. Except for the maximum loss.

First to the basics...

This is Paul Mulvaney.

His fund has turned $10,000 into $773,420 since inception.

His trading style?

- Systematic Trend Following

Here's Paul's story: 1. Audited returns

The Mulvaney Global Markets Fund regularly publishes its results.

Over a 25-year period, he delivered a 19% annualized return.

Do you think that's not enough?

Compared to the S&P500 he made 26x more!

This is Larry Williams.

He's a swing trader, who turned $10,000 to $1,100,000 in a single year.

Here's Larry's story and performance of his well-known strategy on crypto: 1. Audited returns

There are many stories of big gains. Larry's is audited.

His capital appreciation in 1987 was 11,376%.

What's more?

His daughter made 1,000% a decade later!

How to build a profitable crypto trading strategy

A trading strategy is more than just stacking indicators.

It's a methodical approach based on predefined rules. Let's dive into the key steps of creating a profitable crypto trading strategy.
2/ Understand the Nature of the Market.

Before diving into indicators, you must grasp the market's characteristics.

Crypto markets are known for volatility and trends.

But we're building a strategy, we want some evidence.

Full description of portfolio with 4 trading patterns

- performance
- correlation and its impact on strategy weights
- strategy allocation

Up to 90X profit with 35% drawdown. 👇
2. Portfolio consists of the following patterns:

1. Inside bar long
2. Inside bar short
3. Pin bar breakout long
4. Pin bar breakout short

1. Pin Bar pattern and Crypto

- Basic performance of Pin Bars
- Larry Williams' approach
- Regime filter usage

Does the classical approach work?
2. Pin Bar Definition:

- Coin has both close and open in the body of the previous bar
- During the bar, it attempted to break above the H or below the L of the previous bar
-> Thus creating a Pin

1. Inside Bars and Crypto

- Basic performance of Inside bars
- How do Inside bars with a trend filter perform?
- Improvements of Inside bar trading

Complete test and stats! 👇
2. How to trade Inside bar?

Two basic options ones are:

1. Breakout of High or Low of Inside bar
2. Breakout of High or Low of the bar before the Inside bar

The signal is valid only for the next bar after the inside bar is formed.

1/ How to create a strategy that trades a portfolio of several coins together?

A case study of using the RSI indicator with 70X profit... 2/ On Tuesday I showed you how to properly use the RSI as a breakout indicator. We built a simple strategy.

On Wednesday, how I think about building such a system.

Today, we'll look at how such a simple strategy can make 70X profit on a broader portfolio of coins in 4 years.