Settle controversies using real-world data and math. Calculating reality the way no human can.
Feb 17 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Our last debate insight will be about simplifying the entire Covid origins debate. It is easy to get lost in all the evidence and calculations, which is exactly why issues like this remain unresolved despite years of research and discussions by very intelligent people.🧵
After years of analyzing the lab leak vs. natural origin question, the following is our best effort at simplifying its complexities into something intuitive and easy to understand.
Feb 15 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
Today’s insight from our Covid Origins debate is about the Furin Cleavage Site (FCS) - an amino acid sequence that facilitates Covid’s entry into cells. It is generally agreed the existence of an FCS supports the lab leak hypothesis, but to what extent?
It is generally accepted that an engineer could insert the FCS in its current form and so, the conditional probability of this FCS given a lab leak is not very low. The big unknown is about the conditional probability under zoonosis - how likely is nature to produce it?
Jan 15 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
In the next few days we’ll release a few threads describing interesting insights on COVID origins we had during the debate. Today we will discuss priors. Priors are the initial likelihoods assigned to each hypothesis, usually based on statistics on similar past cases. More here: rootclaim.com/how-rootclaim-…
In this case, the priors are few and far between. Major pandemics occur once every 20 or so years. This dearth of historical data creates difficulties in producing accurate likelihoods for the origins of COVID-19.
Jun 17, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Important finding from our analysis of #ShireenAbuAkleh’s death: the forensic calculation used by major media outlets to determine the shooter’s distance is incorrect.
This was used by @bellingcat@CNN@wapo to implicate an @IDF shooter, and by @elderofziyon to exclude the IDF.
The original work used the time delay between the supersonic shock wave of the bullet passing next to the camera, and the muzzle blast coming from the rifle, to determine a distance to the shooter of 175 to 197 meters.
Nov 3, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
US Intelligence recently released an updated assessment on the origins of COVID-19. It is the same, regular collection of human reasoning failures.
Human reasoning is comfortable with logical true or false assessments, where one statement leads to another. So when a logical claim is made, all that is needed to counter it is a possible alternative explanation, even an unlikely one.
Jun 18, 2021 • 32 tweets • 22 min read
Today we announce the resolution of a major controversy: Who was behind the 2013 chemical attack near Damascus?
Many in the West blamed the Syrian government, while Syria and its allies claimed a “false flag” opposition attack, intended to bring about US intervention.
Rootclaim’s 2017 analysis went against this Western consensus, calculating an 87% likelihood that the Syrian opposition carried out the attack. Following the discoveries discussed below this has now been updated to 96%, one of our most certain conclusions. rootclaim.com/claims/who-car…
Sep 25, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5 Kudos to @bellingcat for finding two videos of the Syrian M4000 bombs, showing strong similarities to one of the remnants in Khan Sheikhoun.
2/5 As humans often do, @bellingcat focused on how these similarities strengthen their previously held beliefs, while ignoring how they strengthen the competing hypotheses: 1) The opposition has been shown to have multiple M4000 bombs, which they can easily use to fake evidence,
