Cofounder @ ALEX. Ex-Managing Director @ Morgan Stanley & Credit Suisse. Financial Econometrics Professor. Authored "Rule-Based Investing".
Sep 29, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/ A simple explanation of what happened in the UK Gilt market yesterday, and why #Bitcoin is cheap hedge against financial instability (or catastrophe). 2/ "Gilt" refers to UK government bonds, the equivalent of US treasuries.
Yesterday, Gilt prices plummeted (yields soared) and caused a possible melt down of UK pensions funds.
Bank of England had to step into the market to buy Gilt (see graph above).
May 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/ History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes:
There are striking similarities between how George Soros "broke the Bank of England" in 1992 and yesterday’s bank run against $UST. 2/ In Sep 1992, George Soros famously made $1Bn by betting against the British Pound.
In 1979, a precursor to the EU, the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) was formed for countries to fix their exchange rates with each other and specially peg to Deutschmark.
May 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
While #Bitcoin is on its way to becoming the global payment system, now more than ever, it’s important to understand the macro economic environment.
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With the FED on course to hike 50 bps at least another 3-4 times to combat inflation, the best outcome is a "soft landing" by the end of the year.
Once interest rates get into neutral territory, the economy stabilizes, "risk on" assets will rally.
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