Husband, dad and infectious disease scientist. Lucky to work with great people at universities, in governments and in NGOs... but all views here are my own.
Jan 22, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Can we talk about the phases: pandemic, epidemic and endemic, in terms of SARS-CoV-2 infections (rather than disease), and maybe compare with patterns of influenza infections? I think we are in danger of overloading the word "endemic" to such a degree it's not useful. 1/
Given the speed of spatial spread of Omicron and the current levels of infection, we have to be in a pandemic phase. I can't think of any epi data or genomic data for flu that look like this, other than at the start of a pandemic. 2/
Oct 21, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
We seem to be at a crossroads in our COVID response in England. It's different to March. Everyone understands the implications of social distancing and also of higher prevalence of the virus. Everyone seems to agree there are no easy choices. (1/n)
We have reliably measured levels of infection rising since the end of August (at least). We know this will cause hospitalizations and deaths, but we are choosing not to make strong changes to our behaviour because of the associated economic and other harms (2/n).
Mar 8, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
#COVID19 is now a part of our world and things are different. Things will get back close to the old normal only when most people have immunity. We have two ways to get immunity - natural infection or vaccination, but vaccines don't yet exist. (1/n)
It may be then that most of us will acquire immunity via natural infection, but I do not accept that. I think it is worth the most incredible coordinated human effort to create slightly different societies in which the virus cannot spread widely. (2/n)
