I think there is a misunderstanding or miscommunication over what an #FPL model is telling us when it makes a points 'prediction'.

Chiefly, the fact that it isn't really a "prediction" but a projection:

🧵 In any given gameweek, a player will have a projected number of points. These are summed over a period of gameweeks for a longer term projection.

For example, from #GW14 to #GW16 these are the points projections for two players, A and B, from @fplreview's Free Model:

Is Bernardo Silva doing an Ilkay Gundogan?

🇵🇹 v 🇩🇪

(+ Foden 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)

#FPL Gundogan 20/21 v Silva 21/22
npxG + xA / 90

🇩🇪 0.53 v 0.40 🇵🇹

The difference is not monumental, but it is significant enough.

Gundogan was putting up a decent amount more non-penalty expected goals and expected assists in 20/21 than Silva is now. Gundogan also took some pens.