1. L/S cross sectional momentum historically hasn’t been thaaat much better than $BTC HODL.. but much less single coin risk and more “crypto momentum phenomena” risk trade off v more tcosts
2. They mention that dual momentum approach dramatically improves risk adjusted performance - makes sense. Most of the risk of L/S momo comes from large losers and reward from large winners, so taking trend whipsaw risk to cut large losers has been a great trade
I had delayed reading @SinclairEuan's books because, as a retail investor, I thought options were out of my league.
@darjohn25 pushed me to read them anyways, and here's a (brief) thread on why you should read these books even if you have no intention of trading options
If you follow people like @therobotjames or @AgustinLebron3 or @goodalexander you may have encountered them saying confusing things like "do things the market will pay you for" or "all profits come from inefficiencies or risk premia"
May 13, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1. Bear market rally until proven otherwise 2. Total crypto market cap only up 2-3% where "risk equities" are up 10+% feels like the "$LUNA effect" keeping risk on flows away from crypto. This will take time to heal from. 3. Follow @NorthRockLP for merge alpha. Merge incoming.
More thoughts 4. Does it feel like @0xPolygon is starting to gain an institutional adoption/trust edge that might be hard to beat? 5. The @stripe - polygon partnership still feels bigger than the instagram, twitter NFT things 6. Spotify adding NFT's too - NFT branding normalizes
May 1, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
An idealized approach to Ethereum Signal Capture $ETH
inspired by @choffstein's episode with @GestaltU on Flirting w Models (ep. 1)
This is a barebones approach. I won't lay out the backtest, results, etc.
Just the strategy, to give you a sense for what I've been working on.
This is the sort of thing I *wish* I'd released with my initial thesis, and plan to release with future theses.
Oct 14, 2021 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
Multi-chain arguments in crypto have direct analogies to industry fragmentation in fundamental business analysis.
I don't usually see crypto analyzed this way? Everyone just says "Multichain world! duh!" or "ETH maxi woo"
In this 🧵, I hope to start a conversation.
Most growth industries start with an incumbent, where funding was difficult, the idea was new, and there is some initial traction.
They then *get more fragmented* initially.
Sep 18, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Rocketpool: How $RPL offers an $ETH bet potentially superior to a bet on $ETH itself.
I'm freaking out, I might write this up eventually - but I don't have original ideas. I just think I didn't deeply grok what @RaoulGMI and @cdixon were saying until I dug into @AxieInfinity
The take rate thing - it's a competitive advantage in price, but it's more than that.
Aug 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
In 2019, @woonomic posted a thread categorizing alt coins.
He noted that there were 2 types: coins that fell in value against $BTC (Degenerators) and coins that held their value (Oscillators).
I'm gonna run with @woonomic's model for a minute and see the story that emerges...
Oscillators = holding value against $BTC
Degens = Degenerate against $BTC
He gives $LTC and $DOGE as oscillator examples.
Aug 12, 2021 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
On $ETH monetary policy in 2025 and beyond
A counterintuitive take on why long term ETH investors will hope for inflation, settle for deflation, and accrue value as this revolutionary technology continues to grow.
This brings me to some vague and difficult to falsify predictions.
These are speculative, but they’re also a lot of fun.
I’ll acknowledge up front that the uncertainty is much higher, but I hope you’ll see where I’m coming from and find these takes interesting
Aug 12, 2021 • 27 tweets • 6 min read
On $ETH monetary policy in 2025 and beyond
A counterintuitive take on why long term ETH investors will hope for inflation, settle for deflation, and accrue value as this revolutionary technology continues to grow.
Net change in circulating supply = (# of ETH issued * ETHUSD price) - (Gas fees in USD*number of transactions per user*number of users)
Here are some predictions to demonstrate the implications of this:
Aug 12, 2021 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
On Ethereum monetary policy in 2025 and beyond
A counterintuitive take on why long term $ETH investors will hope for inflation, settle for deflation, and accrue value as this revolutionary technology continues to grow.
What's the second factor affecting fee burn, after price per transaction?
Crypto Adoption.
I'll operationalize this:
Crypto Adoption (AKA total transaction volume) = Number of users * Transactions per user
All else equal, as adoption rises, fee burn rises.
Aug 12, 2021 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
On Ethereum monetary policy in 2025 and beyond
A counterintuitive take on why long term $ETH investors will hope for inflation, settle for deflation, and accrue value as this revolutionary technology continues to grow.
Part 1 of 4 🧵
This is NOT a thread about ETH between now and 2025.
It really doesn’t attempt explanation until 2025.
This is a theory for when the change in ETH staked is approaching 0, the supply squeeze is over, and we are turning our eyes to where $ETH is headed next as an asset.
Aug 5, 2021 • 22 tweets • 9 min read
Reflections on EIP1559, $ETH, and the future 🧵
A stream of consciousness thread on...
- ETH prices today
- Media coverage of $ETH and $BTC
- The meaning of UltraSound Money
- PoS execution risk & timeline
- How $ETH will break @RaoulGMI's metcalfe's law thesis.
Enjoy!
1. Where are we now?
ETH/BTC is breaking out - uptrending above the 30d and 5d MA's and making higher highs.
ETH is back above its price when I first released my triple halving report.
Aug 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
EIP1559: The Squish Chaos Edition
squish.substack.com/p/eip1559-the-…
In this article, I discuss
- The economic beauty of EIP1559
- How EIP1559 ties Ether to Ethereum
- How ETH's value accrues differently under EIP1559
- How EIP1559 will break @RaoulGMI's Metcalfe's model (in a good way)
Jul 9, 2021 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
My attempt at a novel thought re: how EIP-1559 and Proof of Stake change the way $ETH accrues value.
After months of EIP1559 coverage, just 1 month till 1559 is released, I *still* don't think people understand how $ETH will be priced moving forwards.
Enjoy!
🧵 x/25
2 key ideas
1. EIP1559 ties theoretical value of Ether to value of Ethereum network bc unstaked $ETH must be paid as gas
This is neglected by most casual observers, but seems well known as perhaps the most important feature of 1559 to serious $ETH investors.
Jun 30, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of new followers so...
🧵On Misunderstood Supply Dynamics
I'm seeing a lot of $ETH commentary that doesn't account for key differences between staked and unstaked Ether w/ EIP1559.
This is a crucial mistake.
As I've said before... All of the $ETH will be staked. 👇
Simple Model: Assume 40% ETH is staked, 10% staking yield, and net 0 issuance (neither deflationary nor inflationary)
In this model, I'll pretend there are 100,000 total ETH in supply for easier numbers.
May 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I like learning, and for me life has always been more than markets. Here are some things I'm thinking about today 🙂
👇
In math, I'm reading Mandelbrot. Finished my first pass of finance book - definitely gets a reread.
No illusions here. Everyone in vol been there done that. I'm new tho, and Mandelbrot applies to more than finance. Very trippy.
For the #DeFi project to succeed, it must become an existential threat to traditional finance.
This is capitalism at its finest, and the war will be fought on many fronts.
I can't stop thinking that the @Visa - USDC announcement represents the first major battleground. 👇
Why would visa do this? Why now? The is not casual intrigue. For visa to settle with stable-coins they have to significantly invest in the crypto space.
Disclaimer on quality: this is stream of consciousness. I'm just riffing here haha
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