New preprint! medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Many of us have now been infected with SARS-CoV-2 multiple times. We wondered: how do first and second infections compare? Most evidence indicates that second infections are milder on average, but some studies have suggested the opposite. One way to address this question is to examine viral kinetics. Do second infections have a lower peak viral load? Are they cleared faster?

Epi modeling folks: what do you consider to be the foundational papers of our field? I've listed a few below and will continue adding more, but curious if people have others, or would disagree with any of the ones I've included! Bernoulli, "Essai d’une nouvelle analyse de la mortalité causée par la petite vérole" - for introducing the first infectious disease model(?) (see medicine.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/h…)

Lately there’s been a lot of discussion about the delta variant and breakthrough infections. What makes delta infections more infectious? How are breakthrough infections different from non-breakthroughs? We set out to examine these questions...
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… ...using prospective longitudinal RT-qPCR tests. Thanks to the foresight and hard work of the NBA occupational health team, we had a lot of samples... 199,941 to be exact, for 173 individuals. Here’s the raw data by variant and vaccination status.

New preprint with @ctedijanto, @mlipsitch and @yhgrad: “Social distancing strategies for curbing the #COVID19 epidemic” now available on dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42638… We expand upon a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 in the US to address the following questions: How long do social distancing measures need to stay in place? What if we try “pumping the brakes” with repeated rounds? How is this affected by seasonality? medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

New preprint: how will the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic unfold in the coming months and years? Will public health measures eventually eradicate it, like SARS? Or will it continue circulating, like pandemic flu? How will this depend on immunity and seasonal forcing?medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Using NREVSS data from the CDC, we found evidence of seasonal forcing and cross-immunity between the common OC43 and HKU1 coronavirus strains. These strains circulate annually and cause the common cold. The effective reproduction number for both strains ranged from 0.75 to 1.5.