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Charting the poster child for ZIRP absurdity. Not investment advice. Retweets are not endorsements.
Shantanu Profile picture Tao Xu Profile picture Robovan Capital™ Profile picture Machine Planet Profile picture TSLAQ Profile picture 8 added to My Authors
Aug 16, 2021 9 tweets 2 min read
1/ I certainly hope the NHTSA's new investigation is a turning point, my skepticism comes from a long history.

Consider: Joshua Brown was decapitated while using Autopilot in early May of 2016. Tesla raised equity a few weeks later without disclosing this fact. $TSLAQ 2/ Goldman Sachs led that raise - having magically upgraded Tesla that very morning. The SEC opened an investigation into both Tesla and Goldman on the entire affair. The NHTSA dutifully opened an investigation into the Brown crash.
Aug 10, 2021 29 tweets 8 min read
1/ A thread on the SolarCity trial transcripts. Due to the tireless work of @PlainSite, ten volumes worth of testimony are freely available to the public on his website. Having read them, I can confirm the outstanding in-person reporting of @Teslaq_snark. $TSLAQ 2/ I wrote a thread two weeks ago with some preliminary thoughts. Take a few minutes to read it if you missed it. At its core, SolarCity was a financing company wrapped in a stock promotion scheme. I won’t repeat the key aspects of that thread here.

Aug 8, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
1/ Some thoughts on the cost of labor, vaccine status, etc. But before I do, this isn’t a thread about vaccines pro or con, whether people should get them, or whether the government has the power to force it, etc. I and my entire family chose to be fully vaccinated. You do you. 2/ There’s a shortage of labor in the country. There’s pressure on wages. There’s also a large number of adults who won’t ever get a vaccine, for whatever reason. Doesn’t really matter. It’s undeniable that they exist and it’s a sizable number.
Jul 28, 2021 18 tweets 4 min read
1/ As I work my way through the SolarCity transcripts, I think it is pretty clear what happened here and why. Some thoughts. $TSLAQ 2/ At its core, SolarCity wasn't really a solar company. It was a financing company wrapped in an aggressive stock promote. The heart of the business was sourcing and installing solar in exchange for power purchase agreements (PPAs) and tax credits which could be securitized.
Jul 27, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
1/ Please read these four pages of testimony from Kimbal Musk, which I will post in order.

$TSLAQ Image 2/ Image
May 19, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
🚨🚨🚽

1/ Project Drano™️ Update

Minimal inflows despite huge up day, weaker funds seeing nonstop outflows

$ARKK $ARKG $ARKK $ARKQ $ARKW 2/ Overnight numbers
Apr 6, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
1/ With EV competition arriving en masse in 2021 and Tesla's FSD scam unraveling for everybody to see, there's only one move left: $TSLA will merge with SpaceX. The man needs a new narrative, and this is the last trick.

H/T @AlderLaneeggs for hammering this idea since forever. 2/ The main stated synergy will be that, somehow, SpaceX's Starlink enables Tesla to finally solve FSD. Data!! Next generation internet!! 5G!! 6G!! He'll achieve Level 6 autonomy!! Yada yada yada. $TSLA
Mar 30, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ Time for a lesson in “how to read a press release from a fraudster” - $GSX edition.

This morning, pre-market, $GSX put out this curious press release. The intent of the press release was achieved. The news cycle was saturated with “Larry Chen to buy $50mm of GSX” headlines. 2/ Since I live in Elon’s head rent-free, and Elon is the intergalactic GOAT fraudster, my brain has been well-trained. I immediately focused on something else. Read the next sentence, which is, shall we say, quite curious...
Oct 29, 2019 18 tweets 7 min read
1/ A thread on the stunning deposition by Kimbal Musk in the SolarCity lawsuit. Find it here thanks to @PlainSite:

plainsite.org/dockets/32atfy…

It is document 328, attachment 2, starting on page 336 (exhibit 10). You really should read it for yourself. It is amazing. $TLSAQ 2/ A friendly reminder. At the time $TSLA is considering acquiring SolarCity, Kimbal is:

*A very large shareholder of SolarCity
*On the board of Tesla
*On the board of SpaceX
*CEO of The Kitchen

He is also Elon's brother and cousin to Lyndon Rive, the CEO of SolarCity. $TSLAQ
Oct 20, 2019 9 tweets 2 min read
1/ The purpose of this thread is to document the social media/intimidation tactics used by Elon and his associates. There will be no shortage of historians who will examine the record after the collapse. This is for them. $TSLAQ 2/ BOTS – There are thousands of fake $TSLA bull accounts that have come and gone since I joined twitter. They usually come in waves during periods of high stress for the company. Who pays for these bots? What is their purpose? I think we know the answers.
Oct 18, 2019 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ Time for the official TC Overly Simple Earnings Prediction Model That Works Until it Doesn't™️ thread.

Disclosure: I live in Elon's head, so he is likely to mess with the financials just to make me look foolish. I'm sneaking this in while he is off twitter.

$TSLAQ 2/ We begin with the simple observation that net income minus automotive gross margin has held remarkably steady at -$1.4B since the Model 3 reached scale. This is the hole Elon needs to climb out of with auto gross margin dollars just to break even. Let's plug in -$1.4B. $TSLAQ
Oct 5, 2019 9 tweets 2 min read
1/ It occurred to me that someday my children will learn that I am TeslaCharts. I compose this thread in part as an open letter to them. I've always taught them to embrace and learn from their errors. Here are my biggest mistakes and why I made them. 2/ I tweeted that $TSLA would never produce more than 5,000 cars per week in Fremont because I believed they were limited by paint shop emissions and permits. I never imagined Elon would simply put less paint on every car. This was a mistake.
Jul 22, 2019 12 tweets 4 min read
1/ I have read and reread the SOX whistleblower complaint by Karl Hansen. I believe there is an explosive accusation embedded in that document that is being widely overlooked. If this accusation is true, it should spell HUGE trouble for $TSLA and Elon. Let's review. $TSLAQ 2/ First, here is the link to the complaint, with a thanks to @MikeFlo46795160 for publishing it yesterday. Important disclosure: I'm not an attorney. I do, however, have extensive corporate experience and training on SOX related issues. $TSLAQ

drive.google.com/file/d/0B6bZ_p…
Jul 19, 2019 16 tweets 4 min read
1/ I hereby submit that this was a fake product. That it didn't exist. That it won't ever exist as displayed in October 2016. I came to this conclusion in the moment, but I've not yet explained how I knew. I will now. $TSLAQ 2/ Any idiot can put a solar array into an aesthetically pleasing encapsulated form that looks like a roof tile. The hard part is connecting the tiles and harvesting the electricity produced in a way that is SIMPLE, SAFE, and ECONOMICAL. Elon solved none of these things. $TSLAQ
Jul 16, 2019 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ I see a certain millennial is out tweeting about conspiracies and threading the needle on Q2 GAAP profit again. Time for some real data analysis and proper charting. Here is the official TC Fraud Detector Cheat Sheet™️ for next week. $TSLAQ 2/ As a reminder, if you subtract automotive gross margins from GAAP net income, you isolate the rest of the income statement. Essentially, $TSLA needs to generate $1.4B in automotive gross margin to break even. Notice the immaculate quarter of Q3 2018. Sus bro. $TSLAQ
Jul 9, 2019 15 tweets 4 min read
1/ Out of sheer boredom, the adults in $TSLAQ have let the kids have the run of the big board lately. I'll take it back for this short thread on ASP changes in Q2 versus Q1, and some thoughts on what is needed for $TSLA to achieve a GAAP profit in Q2. 2/ Question 1: Did average selling price for Model 3 rise or decline in Q2 versus prior quarter? Let's have a look at the data. $TSLAQ
May 27, 2019 26 tweets 8 min read
1/ As a service to my loyal followers, I present a quick analysis of what the credit markets are telling us about $TSLA's future. H/T to @glenntongue for being patient with my amateurish questions. $TSLAQ 2/ We begin with a look at the long-term liabilities of $TSLA as shown in the Q1-2019 10Q. The benchmark bond was issued in 2017 and $1.8B comes due in August of 2025 $TSLAQ
May 19, 2019 5 tweets 2 min read
SCOOOOOOP!!!!

1/ In the initial request for a temporary restraining order against @skabooshka, Tesla employee Christine Leslie made the following statement about his actions in support of the application. $TSLAQ 2/ I have obtained the police report from the incident in question. Here is the initial description of the incident by the police. $TSLAQ
Apr 6, 2019 6 tweets 1 min read
1/ A quick thread on my account suspension last night. First and foremost - I've never had any problem or issue with Twitter. Nothing strange. No random unfollows. All hack attempts blocked and notified, etc. $TSLAQ 2/ I was in the middle of posting the same photoshopped picture several times with different captions (the 'nuke' pic). Suddenly, in the middle of a tweet, poof. My account was suspended without explanation. $TSLAQ
Mar 14, 2019 10 tweets 4 min read
1/ Now that we know Jonas is reading $TSLAQ closely, I’ve decided to do a quick snapshot analysis on the state of Q1 demand. Could one of my followers email this thread to him? $TSLA 2/ I start with a hard dilemma for $TSLA bulls to rationalize. The Model 3 registration gap. As of today, there’s roughly 10,000 fewer entries in NMVTIS than cumulative US sales estimates. Why this gap persists is a mystery. $TSLA $TSLAQ
Mar 9, 2019 10 tweets 4 min read
1/ Some idiot bull called TeslaHistorian took a chart of mine and did a whole thread on it claiming I'm 'tricking people'. Here is the chart in question, and their attempt to debunk it:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1104198…

Let's examine their counterpoints one by one.

$TSLA $TSLAQ 2/ I didn't 'use Netherlands' sales data'. I showed the combination of The Netherlands, Norway and Spain. Those are the only three countries you can get daily data from. Also, I thought Elon said $TSLA doesn't depend on subsidies? Finally, I'm not long Jaguar. I'm short $TSLA.