Buy Defence Stocks. We first recommended them in July. The rearmament investment theme comfortably passes our three long-term validity tests: (1) it will be sustained by conflict dynamics (with Ukraine being the core case); (2) existential incentives will overcome fiscal constraints; (3) the proven battlefield effectiveness of drones and some other relatively inexpensive equipment will not provide a cheap shortcut to attaining competitive military capabilities in a tech-intense superpower arms race including nuclear weapons. Liquid European

2008 PTSD VS THE GHOSTS OF THE 1970S. @darioperkins writes: While #SVB and its peers were uniquely exposed to COVID bubbles, this latest calamity has highlighted a broader problem in global banking – duration risk. At the start of the year, #centralbanks... wanted to keep monetary policy “tighter for longer”, with the aim of bringing inflation down in a controlled and gradual manner. Right now, they seem to be losing control of that process. As tensions build, banks – particularly the smaller ones – will restrict credit in a way...

In the 2010s, #China growth model created both a driver and a drag for DMs. Great report from @freyabeamish access it here hub.tslombard.com/report/the-vie…

A thread 🧵 1. 2010s driver: China’s contribution to global growth in the 2010s was to internalize the deficit that previously was run by the rest of the world, notably the US household sector. As willing foreign borrowers dwindled, the #RMB appreciated and Chinese policymakers chose to