Why 'PER 90' stats can be improved {THREAD}

I obtained 7 seasons worth of Premier League data, analysed 60,000+ shots from 2000+ matches to understand WHEN xG (expected goals) is accumulated and goals are scored during a typical game of football.

#FPL #FPLCommunity It is clear to see that the second half of games is where the action happens; 15% to 20% more goals and xG registered than in the first half. The bookies already know this, offering odds at 2/1 for 'most goals in first half' and just EVENS for 'most goals in second half'.

A thread of images used in the video yesterday

Guidelines for a successful season ⤵️
(There is more than one way to play so feel free to ignore) Isolating weak defences

Small sample so not many conclusions can be drawn just yet

My Top 6 Defences: MCI, LIV, TOT, CHE, ARS, CRY
My Bottom 6 Defences: NFO, BOU, SOU, LEE, MUN, FUL

Practical Uses of Expected Goals (xG) when playing Fantasy Football {Thread}

In statistical terms what are the constituents of a goal?
👉 xG & the over/under-performance

If you can predict either or both of these, you've got a good chance of predicting goals ⤵ How to predict expected goals (xG)

Clearly monitoring a team's xG over their last few games gives us a good starting point for the future level of xG in upcoming games

Other than injuries etc Fixtures are a really good indication of how a team's current level of xG might change

Ted’s Talking Points: GW18 - A Thread

With many #FPL managers thinking about free hitting or wildcarding in GW18, where only 6 fixtures take place, I thought I’d examine the teams and answer your questions.

Data taken from @ffscout, with permission, and visualised by myself. Q: Who has the best fixtures in GW18?

Man City, Man Utd & Arsenal have the best fixtures on paper, with ‘green’ Newcastle & Sheffield Utd playing each other. Spurs have an unpredictable trip to in-form Aston Villa, whilst evenly matched Everton & Wolves face-off too.