1/n According to "my" crude estimate, "stocks" are more expensive then 1st nov last year when ERP was at 2,96.. where is these variables in 1 year? 🤷♂️ @MacroAlf@JackFarley96@dampedspring@TureMasing@dahlqvistjonas 2/4 How much will financial conditions tighten. I guess we have to look no further than the inflation prints.
As for 30y, no idea .. iirc supply surprised on the downside on May 2. Growth expectations surely took a hit yesterday, but who knows where EPS will end up..
Core PCE been down to 0.3 last 2 MoMs, sure, headline been high but will that stick around? 🤷♂️
High headline might hold also core back .. and ppl already bought a lot of "stuff" last 2 years, probably a lot of spending moved fwd. 🤷♂️ 2/2 However..
@MacroAlf@JackFarley96 Did someone say get started? 👀
@MacroAlf@JackFarley96 I think that what leads to confusion is that there are a lot of constraints, legal and in terms of "wanting to take risks" on banks and it is the mix that leads to their choice of composition of balance sheet.
Apr 10, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/ #finanstwitter#pratapengar Great update on @RaoulGMI thinking! He is indeed right that we, to some extent, have to rethink valuation in the light of the dynamics of the monetary system. I am not betting that much on the next hot/new things..
2/..since these things require too much energy to try to capture. Rather I try to be on top of the political impact on markets, which requires much less precision imo.
We might get a big drop in markets which is indeed the consensus view atm, but there is also the chance that..
@MacroAlf @JackFarley96 @dampedspring @TureMasing @dahlqvistjonas 2/4 How much will financial conditions tighten. I guess we have to look no further than the inflation prints.
