It is clear that a foreign government is holding American networks at risk. @SecPompeo took a necessary step attributing the attack to Russia. That step requires formalization. 1/ The United States government, ideally with at least one ally, must issue its written conclusion on attribution.

The stakes are too high to cloud responsibility, blame the wrong country, or divide our focus. The first step in solving a problem is clearly understanding it. 2/

The theme here is wrongheaded. The guy quoted is looking at hospitalizations “every day.” That’s not enough. Lag and delay are hard concepts for people to understand, but future planning in this case is about mathematical forecasting (not modeling). We must look beyond our noses.

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1319994529668366337

Every time we see a spike in new cases, it is followed by an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. But, there is a time delay between the two for several reasons.

On @ThisWeekABC today I shared some estimates on the number of infectious people in FL. Here are estimates for AZ, CA, GA, TX... AZ: Cases as of 7/4 (94.6K); cases as of 6/20 (49.8K). Increase of 44.8K over 2 weeks. Assuming case ascertainment of 20%, true number of cases = 220K. Population of AZ = 7.3M, so roughly 3% of population is currently infectious.

At the end of 2019, the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) between the U.S. & South Korean expired. Now the money has run out and negotiations are at an impasse. This affects the future of the largest U.S. overseas military base and the U.S.-led security order in East Asia. When the SMA expired, there was enough money to cover the base support needs until April 1, 2020—THAT’S TODAY. The ROK money has run out.

Update on #Coronavirus response. Three days ago, I tweeted the U.S. was poised to take the lead in coronavirus cases, and noted it was reasonable to plan for the US to top the list of countries with the most cases in ~1 week. Today, it appears we have met that sad milestone. As I said then, and will say again, this does NOT make social intervention futile. It makes it imperative. Don't give up.

1/ So, what will we regret not doing today when we look back in two weeks? #coronavirus perspective. 2/ Cordon sanitaire of NYC and messaging and planning aggressively for the other hot spots about to jump into exponential growth (like it appears New Orleans might).

Stay firm on #coronavirus

The economic impacts of social distancing are very difficult, to say the least. Understanding the alternative is instructive. Truly understanding being key. Also, explaining the concept of the strategy is important. The strategy was developed carefully in 2005-2007. It considered economic and social costs and contemplated a targeted, layered mitigation approach that would be implemented in a staggered fashion where and when needed. That was the initial conception, and it remains sound.

Example of the day: A colleague of mine has a family member who is a pediatric critical care nurse. The hospital has no PAPRS and a limited supply of N95 respirators. The nurses are being told to use surgical masks 😱 in the ICU to care for COVID patients and only use N95s when doing aerosol generating procedures.

Let’s apply our test again. In two weeks, when we look back, what would we wish we had done today? As a planning assumption, not necessarily a prediction, we would expect 2,500 dead in the U.S. and ~120,000 #coronavirus cases. I take that from applying the Italy curve.

I urge everyone in the public health community to read this article and be bold and confident when briefing their leadership and communities.@tomaspueyo link.medium.com/aNvjs2ctL4 These are the key messages they need to hear, and they have little time left. It is the time to act, and it is past the time to remain silent. This outbreak isn't going to magically disappear on its own. If you think otherwise, you are badly misinformed.