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Mattias Martinsson Profile picture
Mattias Martinsson
@Tundra_CIO
Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Tundra Fonder. Pioneer in frontier and emerging markets. A special love for the unloved. Views are my own.
Jul 24, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Had the honor to participate in a panel on #SriLanka. Was asked about comparisons to #Pakistan. Will they too default on their commercial debt?

1/X
1) Going into 2022 Sri Lanka's foreign public debt to GDP was 40-45%, vs Pakistan's 20-25% (interval as no final GDP number) 2/X
 More importantly the commercial share of #SriLanka's FX debt (the part that is owned by bond investors in London and NY) was 22-25% of GDP, vs #Pakistan's 5-6%. Both had ca USD 18bn in commercial debt, but #Pakistan is a significantly larger economy.
Feb 23, 2022 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
1/x
 Sentiment check across markets. P/BV vs 10y averages. Assuming companies will perform neither better or worse fundamentally than they've shown historically, and shareholders will pay what they have on average have paid for those companies. Starting with #SPX500 #SPX500 would need to come down to slightly above 3100 to reach its 10y average.
Jan 22, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
P/BV vs history is one of the better methods of measuring sentiment. For those concerned by the recent rout in S&P500, this chart might be helpful. To translate - There is another 32% down to neutral (not bearish) levels.
#SPX500 on the opposite side you have #Pakistan. To reach 10y average the market needs to rise 50%.
Jan 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sometimes love Twitter. A much better way to visualize. Now waiting for the comments why "This time it is different" 😉
Jun 25, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
1/X - So #Pakistan is under review for "downgrade" to Frontier index. Personally I think it would be a good move. At 2bps of MSCI EM it will continue to be ignored. A few observations on MSCI Frontier Index and its use:
#EmergingMarkets #FrontierMarkets 2/X - There is a structural flaw in the algorithm deciding country weights. As opposed to MSCI EM where 50% free float is required, in FM index a mere 7,5% free-float is required. Not a brilliant idea as it gives a higher weight to "zombie markets" with zero liquidity.