Government's Command Paper on NI and the DUP deal

thoughts to follow, but first impression is this is at least as much about presentation as substance

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65ba3b7b… A long list of new measures

Lots of talk about regulatory alignment right now, so here's a go at unpacking what it involves, and what happens when you step away.

Let’s start with a model world, with 3 states

1/ In this world, each state has some different regulations (each arrow): how much arrow point in the same direction shows how much they match up with their counterpart in other countries

(yes, it's more complicated than this, but you get the drift)

2/

Since it's obviously #REULDay, you probably need to check out the govt's own records on this

Mainly because they're less than ideal

1/ Since the middle of last year, the govt has been running a #REUL dashboard, notable mainly for the very infrequent updates it gets

gov.uk/government/pub…

2/

A quick parsing of the #REULBill u-turn

tl;dr the ice feels a bit thin for No.10, compared to the post-Windsor glow

1/ You will recall that Windsor was notable as much for the lack of pushback by CON backbenchers as for its content

2/

Press release on the changes to #REULBill

Welcome change, but still not the 'certainty' it seems

gov.uk/government/new…

1/ Original Bill defeat revoked any remaining EU law on statue books at end 2023, which was problematic

2/

It's #EuropeDay, so let's read the letter from the EU27 ambassadors in today's Guardian, shall we?

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

1/ While not unprecedented, it's unusual for such a letter to be written: treat it as a demonstration of collective intent and openness

2/

We're back in 'bold alternatives', I see

Let's think about what this might involve, shall we?

gov.uk/government/new… UK govt is fully able to fund any unilateral action it likes, so if it can't resolve the Horizon funding issue, then it can just go it alone, as it has already done to some extent

So it's all good, right?

It's not nothing, but in comparison to the heady days of 2017-9, it doesn't look like a major rebellion

https://twitter.com/DavidTWilcock/status/1638551364027416576

Counterpoint: plenty of abstaining, so this isn't enthused support for Sunak/deal either

https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1638551544327970816

Some discussion on the Stormont Brake SI and whether it's inline with the Framework/Protocol

Let's look at it, shall we?

1/ The SI implements the Windsor Framework by creating a new statutory committee of the NI Assembly

legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2023/978…

2/

Right then

It's you, me and the waffle van at breakfast

Let's talk about the Stormont Brake

1/ The hotel I'm staying decided it needed this van as a big statement, both of how great it is and of all the possibilities it contains

They have more conventional options too

2/

Let's consider how today has gone for what we'll now have to call the Windsor Framework

tl;dr about as well as could be hoped for, maybe better Run-in over past weeks was distinctly hazy - no grass-rolling, no consultation, mixed signals about how much was actually settled

However, did also draw some of the sting today, given text came with no major surprises

A few more conversations and I think I see what the problem is for opponents of the deal: no one wants to be the face of this

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1630144280424579074

Previous strength of hard Brexit movement came in part from breadth: lots of supporting action for other wings, so too many to be singled out and contained

Let's think about who's got what power over this Protocol deal, shall we? In formal terms, representatives of UK govt and EU can agree this within Withdrawal Agreement's Joint Cte

Might need some enabling legislation on each side, but largely that can be done by secondary legislation, so limited input/control from others

Right, my focaccia-making skills have not been enough to get the family to spend the rest of the evening with me, so let's think about what an NIP deal text might look like and where the traps lie

1/ Starting point is status of text itself

Is it a declaration of Jt Council to clarify functioning of Protocol, or a new EU-UK agreement that partially supercedes (small) parts of said Protocol?

2/

Indeed, but evident ECJ will still have some role in Protocol, so why the talk of having got this over the line?

https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1629770692970397698

More talk today of 'moving on' on this, but still doesn't ring true

theguardian.com/politics/2023/…

A great line-up for @SurreyPolitics discussion on the war in Ukraine: @profsarahwolff chairing @JulianBKing @LordRickettsP and Eduardo Festo @UkrEmbLondon Fesko rightly points up the need to think about what comes after the war: economic and political reconstruction have to build from now and from what there is

Some thoughts ahead of this weekend's apparent unveiling of a deal on NI Protocol between UK and EU

Let's start with process

1/ Sunak has kept to his predecessors' approach of trying to keep very few people in the loop about talks: UK-EU and UK internal talks are highly separated until deals land and then selling goes overtime

Readers will recall how that went for May

2/

Since there's much talk of a #Brexit deal floating about right now, maybe useful to talk about who gets to decide/agree on this

tl;dr legal rights ≠ political leverage

1/ If we assume that any deal is being written within existing legal texts, then it's a pretty tight circle

Both WA and TCA have bodies set up to deal with precisely this kind of thing: a Partnership Council and Joint Cte, respectively

2/

You might remember the REUL dashboard that the government set up in September

Quite useful, but with no sign of progress

Well

Someone did a very major overhaul this week and it's gone a bit wild

public.tableau.com/app/profile/go…

1/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1610563909773041666

I've been doing a monthly tracker on this (bit.ly/REULTrackerDat…), which mostly just showed nothing happening

This week, lots of updates:
- headline total of REUL items jumped from 2417 to 3745 (54% increase)
- method for showing changes has, um, changed too

2/

A quick reminder on the progress of Brexit-related Bills

1/

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1601879151849488389

NIP Bill was introduced in June and got pushed through Commons very promptly under Truss's sponsorship as ForSec. Leadership things barely delayed matters, and Lords haven't indicated that they will go-slow either

2/

Right then

A thread on why Starmer is mostly wrong, a little bit right and massively disingenuous on this

1/

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1599680043202281472

Let's start with the 'little bit right' element first, as it's correct to say that the transition costs to business of moving back into the single market (SM)/customs union (CU) would be substantial (equivalent to those incurred from leaving)

2/