Professor of @HarvardBiostats & @harvard statistics, Data Science, Genomics, Epidemiology, Health, Education, COVID19 analysis, intervention, Views are all mine
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Mar 9, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
An amazing story of a giant Arianna Rosenbluth, the woman who co-developed and first implemented the Metropolis algorithm, the basis of MCMC. She is the 5th female PhD student graduated from Harvard. She died of COVID (1/n).
nytimes.com/2021/02/09/sci…
In 1953, Arianna Rosenbluth published the seminal Metropolis algorithm paper as the 2nd author with Nicholas Metropolis, Marshall Rosenbluth(her husband at the time), Augusta Teller (wife of E Teller), and Edward Teller (father of hydrogen bomb). (2/n) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_…
Oct 12, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Wuhan implemented the #SwissCheeseModel model using multi-faceted interventions to suppress the outbreak by dropping the R value from 3.5 before intervention=> 0.1 in 6 wks => zero confirmed cases in 7.5 wks. Effective implementation & high compliance(1/)
The multi-faceted intervention Swiss cheese slices used in Wuhan include: mask wearing, social distancing(lockdown), testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine, and universal screening. They were implemented with high compliance. Students have been back to school since September
Sep 1, 2020 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
We published @howwefeel COVID-19 findings in @NatureHumBehav from 500K US participants in April-May on (1) factors for who got tested; (2) symptoms & factors for PCR+ tests; (3) pred models for + tests; (4) social distancing & mask wearing behaviors (1/). nature.com/articles/s4156…
Big thanks go to @weallen1, Han Altae-Tran, James Briggs, @xinnie, Glen McGee, @andyshi_stats, @bitdrift, Dave Cheng, @8en, @zhangf and many members of the @howwefeel team (howwefeel.org), all HWF participants, and partnership with the state of CT. (2/)
Aug 26, 2020 • 24 tweets • 9 min read
Our STAAR paper just appeared in @NatureGenet. STAAR performs scalable, powerful rare variant associations tests for Whole Genome Sequencing studies by using multiple in-silico functional annotations, applied to lipids in @nih_nhlbi TOPMed 30K genomes (1/) nature.com/articles/s4158…
Thanks go to the co-first authors (@xihaoli and Zilin Li), @zhouhufeng, @sheilamgaynor, @sunryan(on twitter), many TOPMed colleagues, including @pnatarajanmd, Gina Peloso, @cristenw, Jerry Rotter, Harvard Analysis Center colleagues of @NHGRI_GSP@bmneale and Shamil Sunyaev(2/)
Jul 17, 2020 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
Our paper “Reconstruction of full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan” is online in Nature. We showed two key features of COVID: High transmissibility (R0=3.5) & high covertness(up to 87% undetected cases), estimated the chance of resurgence(1/n) nature.com/articles/s4158…
It was a great pleasure to work with @chaolongwang. This paper is built upon our March 8 MedRxiv preprint. The first part of this preprint (epidemiology focus) was published in JAMA in April (Pan, et al, 2020). This is the second part (modeling focus)(2/n) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Jun 9, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
There is some confusion about asymptomatic & pre-symptomatic spreading. Clear definition of terminology & clear scientific communication are important. Here are some thoughts on symptomatic,pre-symptomatic,truly asymptomatic cases,PRC test sensitivity, their risk assessment (1/n)
"Asymptomatic" is a vague term. Asymptomatic cases include pre-symptomatic and truly symptomatic cases. The COVID-19 symptoms have been evolving over time as we understand the disease better and better (2/n)
Apr 17, 2020 • 32 tweets • 8 min read
Very pleased to report that our JAMA paper on public health interventions with the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan based on analysis of 32,000+ lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan till Mar 8 appeared on April 10. See below for a summary. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
This is an updated analysis of that reported in the MedRxiv pre-print posted on March 6 by including 32K cases until March 8 and adding a fifth period after a universal symptom screening that was implemented on February 17-18.
Mar 6, 2020 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
Analysis results of 25,000+ lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan till Feb 18: epidemiological characteristics and non-pharmaceutical Intervention effects. The key results are summarized below and hope they are useful for the strategies in US and others medrxiv.org/content/10.110…1. In the absence of intervention (before 1/23), the effective reproductive number R=3.8>>1, and dropped to R=0.3 after the massive intervention on Feb 1(centralized quarantine and treatment of all confirmed and suspected cases). This intervention worked.
Feb 28, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Our MPAT (Multiple Phenotype Association Test) using GWAS summary statistics is out in JASA. It addresses the question which multiple phenotype PC or a combination of phenotype PCs should be used to boost GWAS power using multiple phenotypes (1/n) tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
(2/n) Which phenotype PC gives the best power for association analysis of multiple phenotypes? the first phenotype PC, the last phenotype PC, or a combination of phenotype PCs? Which combination? Is the multivariate Wald Test most powerful ?
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