1/ Leveraged long $PGNY in size ahead of results on 28th Feb.

Bloomberg based consensus looks quite easy to beat, and is at the lower end of the company's own guidance possibly because of the Omicron impact in late Dec. 2/ But anyway there is a baby boom happening and all those people who were waiting for the pandemic to recede, will now proceed with IVF and other clinical options.

$PGNY is best placed to benefit from this.

1/
$TRMR results
- Q4 rev reported +25.8% yoy to $102.5m - vs est $85.5m (BIG BEAT)

- Q4 rev ex TAC +19.7% yoy to $88.6m

- Q4 Adj EBITDA +38.1% yoy to $54.1m - vs est $42.3m (BIG BEAT).

- Q4 Adj EBITDA Margin of 61% vs est 49.5%. 2/
$TRMR Q1'22 Guidance:
- Rev ex TAC of min $73m (min +16% yoy)
- Adj EBITDA of min $33m (45% margin) and +20% yoy

It's difficult to compare the Rev ex TAC vs estimates-> but EBITDA est for Q1'22 was $32.1m -> so a slight beat.

$MGNI

Rev ex Tac of $142.2m BEAT vs est $140m (+97% yoy). CTV+52% yot

Adj EBITDA of $67.5m BEAT vs est $60m (48% margin)

Adj EPS of 26c MISS vs est 29c

Q1 forecast rev ex TAC $105-$109m MISS vs est $109.4m

Sees FY22 rev "well over $500m" and Levered FCF > $100m 2/
Overall I see these as good results. Q1 guidance a little conservative but good to see the much better than expected FCF for next year ($100m+) vs cons of $100m.

More upside to FCF if guidance proves to be conservative and if integration completed ahead of time.

1/
Thought the $TRMR presentation today was fine. For those who couldnt attend, company took some questions over the webcast:

1. Director dealings - $TRMR suggested to senior directors that they enter into a 10b5 plan - which is automated selling for the next 18months... 2/
..irrespective of time, price, etc.

Reason they did this is because company is engaged in strategic conversations and so wish to be removed from trading decisions, so entered into 10b5 plan. Also said a large part of their comp was related to stock comp....

1/ $TRMR FV Update: $TRMR Is now trading at 4.5x FY21e sales, 9x EBITDA and 9x FY21e FCF.

$MGNI and $PUBM are 7.7x sales 19.7x EBITDA and 25x FCF..

..while $TTD is in another universe, at 36.5x sales, 111.2x EBITDA and 114x FY21 FCF (but it is a leader, so deserves a premium). 2/
So, on RV basis, where should dear $TRMR trade?

Flat to $PUBM & $MGNI: ~100% upside (GBp 1,575 or $42) on sales & EBITDA, with 2.1x upside on FCF.

Flat to $TTD is just mental / not going to mention (see from table above) - but then again $TTD does deserve a premium.

1/
$HIMX - dividend vs stock buyback!? Let's just run some #s quickly.

Q3'21 cash balance = $230m.

My exp Q4'21 FCF = $130m.

Assume another $60m spent on securing additional foundry capacity in Q4 ( $HIMX has already spent $100m YTD, so this is prudent IMO). 2/
Brings $HIMX FY'21 cash balance to = $230+$130-$60 = $300m.

Now, we have to look at use of that cash, specifically how much to keep on balance sheet and stockholder distribution.

In FY20, $HIMX had $100m cash - so, let's assume they need to keep $100m cash on hand.

1/ $TRMR - great results / Q3.

- IFRS Rev +55% yoy & 6.9% qoq

- Contribution ex TAC (rev comp to peers) -> + 54% yoy & +4% qoq

- $42.3m EBITDA -> +116% yoy & +13.5% qoq

- 55.2% EBITDA margin vs 39.4% Q3'20 & 50.6% in Q2'21

- FCF+$41m in Q3 Vs. $2m last year & $54.5m in Q2 2/
This is a decent beat vs guidance given $TRMR in Q2.

As a reminder:
- Q3 contribution ex TAC is $76.7m (guidance was min $75m)

- Q3 EBITDA is $42.3m (guidance was approx $37m)

1/
$TRMR now -20% since Sept, most of the fall over last couple of weeks.

I get it - market is worried about the Alphonso case and got a little spooked by $MGNI's guidance miss. 2/
But remember $MGNI was v aggressive with its guidance vs all the other peers, whereas $TRMR was ultra prudent.

2ndly re court case - the plaintiff's version always shows an extreme scenario.

1/
$HIMX - trade idea write up published on

- yieldfanatic.com (subscribe; free access)

- on Reddit -> reddit.com/r/HIMX/comment…

(may go up on WSB as well) 2/
Upside of between 100-200% based on traded comps ($23-$34/share vs $11.45 today).

If Wise Road Capital's offer of $29/shar eon MagnaChip is to go by (21x EV/EBITDA), potential of $54/share on $HIMX on RV - or c 370% upside.

1/
$HIMX Q3’21 results. Here's the detail and my thoughts.

Quick summary – TLDR – earnings were a killer. Stock already up; massive short squeeze coming.

Near term target - $16-$17/share ($11.8 now).

Disclosure: I own calls + stock, so clearly biased. 2/
Before going into results – why do I mention a ‘SHORT SQUEEZE’ – well, as I write this, short interest is 19% of float – with c 11 days to cover according to Bloomberg.

Short interest had been increasing into earnings and with earnings now out of the way and...

$HIMX - let me just say excellent results and guidance.

Q3 rev +15.8% vs guidance of 13-17%

Gross margin of 51.7% (guide: 50.5-52%)

Nom ifrs eps - 79.5 (guide: 74-81) Q4 guidance:
- rev + 4-8% qoq
- margin of around 50%
- eps of $0.78-0.83

Auto segment will become largest segment next year.

1/
Novatek results were out last few days and call was today ahead of $HIMX results & call later today.

Q3 margin was 51.9% higher than 51% high end of guidance.

Into q4 guiding towards -3% to -6% rev decline qoq. Gross margin of between 48-51% (vs 52.9% in q3). 2/
Decline qoq yes but rev is still +67% yoy (haven't run my gigs but going by what they said on call).

On consumer side, aome demand shortness into q4 but notes this is seasonal low.

However with people returning to office, seeing demand for commercial notebooks, auto and..

1/
$HIMX

Summary of CS Taiwan Display Sector (published 30 Sep) - Feedback from supply chain checks

1. TV panel prices are soft going into Q1'22, but declines are lower pace than reported in press. This could trigger promotions, which helps demand. 2/
2. Limited impact from China's power restrictions. Production remains normal.

3. DDI still in tightness and believe T-CON in shortage. So, ***those who can supply both are gaining share through bundle sales***.

Prices could increase in Q4, ahead of market expectations...

1/
$TRMR FV Update: Against FY21 exp (Bloomberg avg)

$TRMR currently at 4.1x sales, 10.5x EBITDA and 13.7x FY21e FCF. FCF est is low IMO.

Avg upside vs $MGNI & $PUBM -> 130% on EV/S & EV/EBITDA... and up to 175% on FCF

Flat to $TTD -> 632% on EV/S & EV/EBITDA..& 379% on FCF 2/
What does this mean?

$TRMR LN -> price of between GBp 1,670-2,000 vs $MGNI and $PUBM and between GBp 3,460 - 5,290 vs $TTD

$TRMR ADS -> price of between $46-55 vs $MGNI and $PUBM and between $95.5-146 vs $TTD

1/ RANT ALERT.

$TRMR - I need a rant.

...and I dont know if its fate, but Bloomberg just pinged me Needham's updated note on $TRMR.

Will try and keep this nice and short given its a Friday pm..

..but the essence of this thread is simple:

W.T.F. 2/
Firstly, despite beating Needham's Q2 revenue and EBITDA forecast by 11.7% and 55.5% -> Needham has kept their $TRMR price target unchanged at $28.

TBF on Needham though, JMP didnt raise their target either despite $TRMR beating JMP exp by +14.7% and 30.5%.

Again..

W.T.F.

1/4
A slightly delayed taper is likely a more prudent approach than an anticipatory taper IMO.

July minutes pretty much showed a 'let's get going' attitude...but sicje then cases have risen...

...and remember, there is likely a 6-12 weeks delayed impact on economic indicators. 2/4
Better to adopt a wait and see approach?

Aim for taper towards end of year or more likely early next year?

Anyway, I expect a pretty much non-event today.
As DB highlights, the title of Powell's speech today is simply given as "The Economic Outlook"...

1/
Even if you are a bear, you'd have to agree that $UPST's results look good.

Havent gone through the detail yet (will publish when I do), but beating consensus and upgrading guidance for the 2nd time in a row is v good indeed. 2/
Will go through $UPST results are publish my findings... but even though results are good, I do not wish to get involved here.

The main reason is due to the risk involved and the significantly higher valuation vs peers (need to update val given guidance upgrade though)

1/ $SKLZ Q2 Earnings – my take

Now I find it impossible to write a short thread on $SKLZ – so here goes, another long thread.

I quickly perused through the results yesterday and fair to say, was v disappointed to see headline figures but didn’t dive deep until this morning. 2/
While $SKLZ’s financial metrics weren’t specifically bad this quarter, the declines in MAU & pMAU were not great.

Wanted to sleep on it before making any decision… so, here’s my take

My restatement of the build to Operating Profit and free cashflow are below

1/
$LC - some extracts from yesterday's call:

"Non-interest income grew 81% sequentially, primarily due to increased marketplace loan sales, which more than doubled transaction fees to $114 million from $56 million last quarter. "

More than doubled tx fees!!! 2/
Re: Back to leadership position in unsecured loans:

"According to dvo1, which tracks market share data for personal loans, we have returned to market leadership"

$LC

Wow - Lending Club just raised FY21 revenue target to $750-$780M from $500-$530M previously.

Now that's expected revenue growth of 75-80% yoy.

Impressive. AH +27.4% wow.

1/
Took a small-ish position in $OPFI warrants - while I do the work. Likely a short-term trade.

Catalysts:
(1) Earnings due 11 Aug (1st call post despac)
(2) Analyst initiations, and
(3) Mngmt / strategy execution 2/
Came across $OPFI while researching about $UPST.

It was really a post by @siyul that pointed me towards $FGNA / $OPFI.

https://twitter.com/siyul/status/1413944560561102848