Some interesting and noteworthy moments from President Erdogan's inauguration ceremony:
1) Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro extending his hands, palms up during prayer as Muslims do. 2) President Erdogan greeting both Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at his inauguration ceremony.
Oct 5, 2022 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
My take on @nords41 OpEd "Why Erdogan Might Choose War with Greece".
Firstly, war would be a choice, if it happens that means its unavoidable. Peace and stability in the Aegean are paramount for Turkiye's national security and economy. warontherocks.com/2022/10/why-er…
Regardless of disparities in military power, there is no such thing as a short quick war, Syria, Libya, Afganistan, Iraq, Yemen and Ukraine have taught us that and Turkiye has more than enough experience to understand that.
Mar 20, 2022 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
I first saw this proposal mentioned in a WSJ OpEd last week. I thought was so unrealistic that I didn't even tweet about it then. It seems the idea has taken legs and some in DC believe its a possibility. Here's why it won't happen and what it'd take to be seriously considered 👇
1) the request would have to come from Ukraine. Before that request comes, they would have to consider if they have the personnel to operate the S400.
2) giving up the S400, means giving up Turkiye's most important air defense asset. This would require an immediate stop-gap.
Nov 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
@EvansRyan202 1) Turkey can't stop Russia on post-Soviet soil, maybe slow it down and raise the cost of engagement, but that's all.
2) Turkey and Iran (proxies of both countries) are generally like water and oil. When they're in the same space, they generally separate and avoid each other.
@EvansRyan202 3) Turkey has shown the risk appetite to strike Iran-backed militia when necessary.
4) Turkey is definitely not pleased with the proliferation of Iran-backed militia across its borders. Turkey has a 534km border with Iran but an 1,800km border with Iran-backed militia.
Aug 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- According to the Turkish readout, regional issues, especially steps to improve Turkey-Russia relations and developments in Afghanistan, were discussed during the meeting.
- Both Presidents expressed their condolences for the Turkish and Russian crew who lost their lives in the Russian plane that crashed while fighting the fire in Kahramanmaras last week.
Apr 10, 2021 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
Long thread warning
The developments unfolding in eastern Ukraine are a very complicated and complex issue for Turkish foreign policy on many levels. Ankara's relationship with Kiev has blossomed over the past decade. Bilateral trade is quickly increasing, with a $10bn target.
A free trade agreement is in the works. Both sides have agreed on passport-free travel and their is strong defense industry cooperation as well ranging from drones, corvettes and jet engines. The Crimea issue is also very important as Turks view Crimean Tatars as their brethren.
Dec 3, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A great blog post by the EU's top diplomat on Europe's strategic autonomy. There are a couple areas I don't agree with though. This quote here: "no one advocates the development of a fully autonomous European force outside NATO". President Macron is a big advocate for an EU Army.
Frankly, I don't see how an EU Army and NATO can coexist. This seems problematic, especially with a Biden administration coming soon. I also don't agree with the Astanisation segment either. 👇
Feb 22, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Thursday's clash between Turkish/Rebel troops and Regime/Russian forces in #Idlib taught us many things:
1) a small unit of Turkish troops made quick work of the SAA, basically taking control of Nayrab in 60-90 minutes. Turkey lost 2 soldiers while over 150 SAA were neutralized.
2) escalation is incremental. If Russia needed to deploy an airstrike in Nayrab - it was a last resort. Turkey has now seen how weak the SAA is and the extent Russia will support Assad.
Jan 9, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday's Libya ceasefire deal clearly displays that Turkey's presence in the north African country is a peacekeeping mission and not an aggressive intervention. The ball is now in Hafter's court - will he honor the deal amd move towards a political solution process... 1/2
... or live up to his Warlord title. Reactions from Egypt and the UAE will be interesting to follow. Expecting Sisi and MbZ to hail a ceasefire as a major breakthrough on the surface but behind closed doors both must be fuming as Turkey has now cemented itself as the major actor.
