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ThirdSide Profile picture
ThirdSide
@_ThirdSide_
Not the sell side, Not the buy side; Ex-HSBC analyst; IIT-B+ Nanyang MBA; Buy value at the lows not narratives at the highs; In the long term, we're all dead!
2 subscribers
Jan 20, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Pretty good results from HUL, surely showed it has the pricing power; now let's see whether Havells has it or not? The brand value (aka pricing power) which underpins high PE stocks needs to come through in numbers else its just Fugazi Consumer discretionary stocks have seen a lot more multiple expansion in last 5 years as compared to staples; probably not a bad time to rotate out of them back into Staples (ex-ITC); I don't like ITC if anyone cares; stocks like these break hard when big sell-down comes
Dec 2, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
M&M is one company I have really come to like. Many going cold on it worrying about a questionable slowdown in rural India, which, I think, is mostly base effect. The changes in company's biz here & abroad are far from factored in. If markets remain sane, this can be 2x from here For starters, just look at Sum of the Parts valuation of M&M. Current value of its listed investments (2nd last line) is 456/share i.e. rest of the auto & tractor biz is valued at only 394/shr (3rd last) at FY23 EV/EBITDA of only 5.3x.
May 23, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
True Gem on #ShitManagementSays from Motherson Sumi 3QFY21 Presentation, emptiest words ever:

"Industry outlook: OEMs continue to work with suppliers, given challenges in supply of certain critical components"

Wut? Magna (MGA) is the closest peer to Motherson Sumi - offers the same products to same customers. No wonder their margins track each other.

Both reported multi-year high margins in Dec Qtr but note the sharp QoQ fall in MGA margins Mar Qtr as input cost benefits prove temporary.
May 1, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Indian companies have a horrible track record on M&A (actually, M&A sucks globally too) - Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Havells, Motherson (if you ignore what they got for free in 2008), M&M. Recently, UPL has joined this elite club of losers and its gonna go through real tough time UPL had a big rally on news of "a reduction in net debt" of $1.2bn last qtr (cash up $0.6bn, debt down $0.6bn). This likely came from 2 sources: a seasonal decline in inventory (see 3Q transcript below) & potential factoring (receivables sale). Both will reverse in current qtr Image
Oct 22, 2019 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
For all you brainy chaps who are buying Bharti Airtel in the hope of an end to the price war, please do remember that you are buying the company at its PEAK Market Cap #Nifty Oh! did I mention that the current PEAK market cap of Bharti Airtel already factors in an end of price competition with Jio (as if it ended today) BUT has the competition ended? And, what's the Jio management repeatedly saying? #Nifty #BigShort?