1. An MoU on the principles of IMEC has been signed after initial consultations - setting forth the political commitments of countries
2. IMEC will comprise an eastern corridor connecting India to the Gulf region & a northern corridor connecting Gulf region to Europe
Sep 6, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
We spoke with Pankaj Tibrewal of Kotak AMC.
He says caution is warranted in midcaps & smallcaps.
10 points.
1. While over the last decade, Small-Midcaps have been the best-performing equity class, it is crucial to exercise caution in the short-term now
1/9 @CNBCTV18Live
2. There's a widespread belief that mid-small-cap stocks are the path to financial nirvana, but such situations tend to be fleeting. Cycles have become shorter and sharper and to create wealth in the longer term, one needs to survive short term as well.
2/9 #StockMarket
Aug 11, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I interviewed the ONDC team !
- Nandan Nilekani
- Mr. Koshy, CEO ONDC
- Pramod Varma, Chief Architect, Aadhaar
@NandanNilekani | @KoshyTK | @pramodkvarma
Team behind much of India's digital public infra.
Video soon. @CNBCTV18Live
12 takeaways from Mr. Nilekani.
1/11
1. Aadhaar launched in 2009 but e-KYC took off only in 2016. UPI launched in 2016 but it took off only 2-3 years later. FASTag conceived in 2010, took many years to roll-out. It takes time between launching & scaling up. ONDC scale-up will happen quickly.
2/11
Jul 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Jio Financial will be spun out of Reliance today.
This will happen between 9 - 10 AM today.
6 quick points.
1. Exchanges will run a special pre-open price discovery session today between 9 AM and 10 AM to discover RIL price ex-Jio Financial.
@CNBCTV18Live #StockMarket
2. The overall market will open as usual at 9.15 AM with one difference. Reliance Ind price stock will not change in the Nifty or anywhere else till 10 AM. Till 10 AM, Reliance Ind will quote at a fixed price – that is at yesterday’s closing price which is Rs.2841.85 a share
Jul 17, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A giant global investor, Capital Group, in an essay, asks 'Will India be the breakout EM this decade?'
Their view in 10 points.
1. 'We believe India is poised for a period of secular growth, fueled by significant expansion in direct & fixed asset investment'
1/9 @CNBCTV18Live
2. 'From our recent travels around the country, we believe indications are pointing in the right direction: Corporate confidence is high, the economy is expanding at a decent clip and technological innovation is leading to new areas of growth'
2/9
Jun 2, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
We spoke with S. Naren, CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC.
18 takeaways.
1. India best structural story with strong macros, challenge is to decide what kind of premium to pay
2. Big move since March on strong flows partly explained by Japanese CB printing a lot
1/8
#StockMarket3. We are in a lower/moderate return environment, no longer in zero rate regime
4. You can invest in debt & get 4-5%, even Japan will quit printing at some point
5. Since March, it appears that markets go up in a straight line, won't be like this
SEBI's 40 page consultation paper reviewing expenses (TER) charged by MFs to investors is out.
10 points.
1. Currently things like transaction charges & GST fall outside the purview of base TER (total expense ratio)
2. SEBI wants these expenses within TER.
1/5 #StockMarket
(contd) .. In SEBI's own words, "it is desirable that TER reflects the maximum expense ratio that an investor may have to pay & hence it should be inclusive of all expenses permitted.."
3. SEBI is proposing new separate TER slabs for equity & non-equity AUM
“About 25% of India’s air traffic passes through their airports & 25-40% of India’s cargo volume goes through their ports. The biggest competitors are actually the Indian govt, not the fastest running horse in the race.”
2/6
Dec 20, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Today's headline is, Bank of Japan.
Bigger question - Is Japan (finally) exiting deflation ?
10 points.
1. Japan has been in a DEFLATIONARY phase for 25 years.
2. Companies refrained from passing through costs to consumers even when input prices rose. Instead, they cut wages.
3. As a result, Japanese companies saw 7–8% avg annual earnings growth. In the same period though, Japan's economy trend growth fell from 4% in 1990 to 0.2% or so now
4. So Japanese corporate earnings growth outpaced GDP growth quite handsomely
Dec 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
I spoke with the Fertiliser Secy, GoI today.
Very important (and interesting) takeaways.
10 points.
1. Nano urea is part of supply chain now
2. Will make 17 crore bottles of Nano Urea next year. This would be equal to 75 lakh metric tons of urea
1/4 @fertmin_india#stocks3. KEY - One bag of Uurea would translate into 100 bottles of Nano Urea. One bottle of Nano Urea is as effective as one bag of Urea. So efficiency bgoes up 100X
4. Scientists estimate that 2/3rd of all urea consumption can be replaced by nano urea
1. Gazprom announced on Friday evening an indefinite shutdown of Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. This seems to be in response to G7 decision to impose a price cap on Russian oil.
#Europe#stocks2. Gazprom cited an oil leak during maintenance ops & said the pipeline would not restart until repairs were implemented
3. This issue was dismissed by Siemens Energy: “As a turbine manufacturer, we can affirm that such a finding is not a reason to stop ops”
1. Markets are skirting a recession & not yet pricing in a full blown global recession
(1/9)
2. Need substantially worse numbers for a full-blown recession
3. Central Banks will start changing their tightening policies by end of 2022
4. You will find communication from CBs will start changing at the end of this year & into 23
(2/9)
Jul 1, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
2. Need substantially worse numbers for a full-blown recession
3. Central Banks will start changing their tightening policies by end of 2022
4. You will find communication from CBs will start changing at the end of this year & into 23
(2/9)
5. Sometime in 2023, probably by the middle of the yr or later, Central banks will again cut rates, & we will swing back from QT to QE once again
6. Towards the end of 2023 & in 2024, in my view, all the compression of fiscal deficits right now, will reverse itself
(3/9)
Jun 28, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
We spoke with S. Naren, CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC.
1. We follow processes; when we see greed, we are cautious & when we see fear, we are positive
2. In debt funds, floating rate funds should do very well
(1/9)
3. Don't know why floating rate funds doing poorly, actually they should do very well
4. Right now market is NEITHER in greed zone NOR in fear zone
5. FIIs selling & locals buying - its neither greed nor fear. In the middle now. Recommend asset allocation, SIPs.
(2/9)
Jun 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We spoke with Rupal Bhansali this morning who oversees $18 billion in investments in global equities at Ariel Investments.
She sounded pessimistic. But its a view from a large money manager..
12 Points,
1. Most imp to remember that this is a REGIME change from QE to QT
1/42. In QE, if you took extra risk you took you got rewarded extra, opposite will happen now
3. This is the unravelling of a very big speculative bubble
4. In the very early innings of a correction
5. Think S&P-500 would eventually get into the 2000s zone
2/4
Jun 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
15 Takeaways From Chat With Raamdeo Agrawal,
1. India's problems compounded by high oil & FII selling, thankfully earnings are still strong
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