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Sep 29 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Thread Israel’s successful decapitation campaign against Hizbollah has many lessons/implications for Somalia. For one, it shows without active penetration of militant groups that it’s impossible to defeat them. It also shows the role of intelligence agencies. 1/n
For example, officially, NISA is an intelligence agency. By practice, it’s a paramilitary organization. Despite calls for reform in recent years, NISA has become a bigger paramilitary organization, not smaller.
Mar 11 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment has been released today by @ODNIgov. Unlike previous editions of the report, there’s no mention of Somalia. In 2023, the report took note of FGS’ anti-Shabab’s offensive & @HassanSMohamud’s efforts to mend ties with Federal Member States.
In an obvious recognition of the deteriorating peace and stability in Ethiopia, this year’s Annual Threat Assessment observes:
“Ethiopia is undergoing multiple, simultaneous internal conflicts, heightening interethnic tension and the risk of atrocities against civilians.”
Aug 20, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Friday’s complex terror attack in Mogadishu is part of a well coordinated campaign to discredit & delegitimize the incoming gov’t and scuttle gov’t before it even begins its term. Attack is also an extension of the political war being waged on @TheVillaSomalia.
Shabab’s internal & external terror attacks intended to overwhelm the new gov’t. Yet, gov’t is doing itself no favors by not moving expeditiously to appoint new security leadership.
The prolonged transition is producing alarming security & governance paralysis.
Aug 2, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Notwithstanding Roobow’s background as a major Islamist figure & associated crimes he’s committed against the Somali people, it’s unquestionably clear that as someone with cult-like following among Shabab’s foot-soldiers, that he will play a big role in offense against Shabab.
The incoming government’s focus on ideologically confronting Al Shabab is strategically sound b/c Shabab won’t be defeated militarily alone.
Jul 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
‘Somali Heshiis ah dunidana la heshiis ah’ was an effective campaign slogan but will make for a disastrous governance strategy.
The May 15 election showed Somalia’s rejection of thuggery & mafia style governance.
The current government was brought to power to make the tough difficult decisions, to reset & reorient Somalia’s politics & to reform the country’s governance culture.
If the Somali people were satisfied with @M_Farmaajo’s mafia style politics, they would have kept him in power!
Jul 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
After more than a decade of sustained international support, Somalia’s security apparatus remained deeply incompetent, politicized and commercialized.
No where is this more evident than at @HSNQ_NISA where political and commercial considerations have paralyzed the agency.
Like many sectors of Somalia’s security apparatus where conflicts of interest and commercial considerations supersede policy, operational and staffing considerations, @HSNQ_NISA grew into a corrupt, bloated & dysfunctional behemoth that’s both unreformable & a governance threat.
Jul 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Thread by Turkish President @RTErdogan highlighting the strong relations between his country & Somalia.
President @HassanSMohamud during his 1st term is credited in deepening Somalia’s burgeoning ties with Turkey. Erdogan visited Mogadishu twice (2015 & 2016) during HSM’s term
In many ways, Turkey’s successful engagement with Somalia provided Ankara with a template to replicate throughout Africa.
A two-way partnership that helped both Somalia & Turkey in many ways.
Jul 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Out with the old, in with the old.
In a bid to establish their own independent power center, the PM & others are reviving the doomed careers of Nabad iyo Nolol cultists.
The new protocol officer at PMO, like many recently appointed at PMO represent the toxic past which Somalia voted out on May 15th
