This is the age-wise Covid mortality data of Mumbai. It has been well known that Covid affects the older population more. But look at the scale of the difference.

CFR % of 70+ vs 0-29 yrs age group shows a 50x+ difference (8.2%/0.15%). But CFR % does not clearly represent the difference in mortality risk.

When adjusted for population sizes, 60-69 and 70+ age groups have a 573x and 1112x higher mortality risk compared to the 0-9 group. Risk is 300x+ for 60+ when compared with 10-19 group.

Amazon now has a 1.6 trillion $ market cap.

If it has to deliver 6% p.a. return over the next 20 years, it has to be worth 5.1 tn $ in 2040.

Assuming by then it's achieved world domination and become a "matured" business, it may trade at a 20-30 P/E range. At 30 P/E (a growth multiple), that would mean it has to deliver 170 bn $ in profit.

Adjusting for 2% inflation, that's 115 bn $ in today's PAT.

That's almost what Apple+Google+Microsoft together make now. These are among the strongest tech moats that exist in the world today.

Have seen many views that say the moratorium and SBI investment prevents a run on Yes Bank and ensures that it survives. In my view, this actually guarantees a run on the bank and ensures its death (i.e. eventual merger with SBI down the line). A half-hearted bailout and a tiny 2450 cr SBI investment will not stop depositors from rushing to exit when the moratorium is removed. And why shouldn't they exit? It's a classical prisoner's dilemma.

Seeing many DCF models in analyst reports where the WACC/COE has been reduced due to rate cuts leading to higher target prices.

But the same models don't reduce the EPS, ROE or terminal growth rate estimates. Why? If rates are being cut due to lower inflation, will that also not result in lower nominal revenue and EPS growth?

Hearing lots of arguments on why small and mid caps are ultra cheap now and the valuations are at decadal lows. Reality is that most quality small and midcap stocks still largely trade at fair to rich multiples. Forget 2008, small and mid-caps are nowhere close to even 2013 valuations. In 2013, a large part of the smallcap universe was available at less than 10x P/E. There were many high quality biz (high ROE, 0 debt, +ve fcf) available at less than 5x P/E. Some even below cash on book.

The second half of September will have a lot of interesting Hindi movie releases at the same time.

The one I am most looking forward to is Nandita Das' Manto. Has Nawaz playing the title role. If you liked reading Manto's stories you can't miss it.

Then there's Vishal Bhardwaj's Pataakha. After a long time VB is again going back to adapting an old story. Charan Singh Pathik's 'Do Behne' this time.

The Curious Case of PC Jewellers' Trade Receivables (Thread)

Disclosure - No position in PCJ stock or derivative. PCJ announced its Q1 FY19 results last week. In its mgmt ppt, it also disclosed partial BS information. The info showed that PCJ had reduced its total outstanding debt by over 400 crs. However, what the company didn't disclose is far more interesting than what it did disclose.

We wrote about Manpasand in Dec 2016 and haven’t written another “Curious Case” piece since then. That’s not because there weren’t enough candidates but just that the way some big guys in the ecosystem responded, scared us a bit.

This is a thread about one such Big Guy. We published the Manpasand note in the evening and thought maybe a 1000 people would read it (which had been the case for our earlier Kitex and JD note). However, for some reason the note went viral and our site crashed.

We got the site up and went to sleep as our job was done.

Theranos is a perfect example of how good storytellers are the best conmen.

bloomberg.com/view/articles/… Once we have been charmed by the story and fallen in love with the storyteller, confirmation bias will kick in to ensure that no data or counterview can change our faith in the fantastic story.

The author just brushed aside a plethora of red flags (suspect quality of earnings, lying on the record, not disclosing material conflicts, bad corporate behavior, poor capital allocation, deteriorating profitability) as just "quirks" of an intelligent fanatic.

https://twitter.com/iancassel/status/971772613881139200

In the public domain, so many issues have been raised by a number of analysts without any real counter. At least that merited a tempering of the high praise that has been lavished if not a deeper analysis of the issues raised. Hopefully, this is just an error in judgement ...

The curious case here - Revenue growth that is only marginally above Total Area growth is mathematically impossible when SSG growth is so high. It would imply that the last 3-4 years store/area addition has a negligible contribution to the current top line.

https://twitter.com/amitmantri/status/971324821069025282

While FY13-17 growth numbers themselves make little sense, the situation worsens further when FY12 data is also included in the analysis.

Despite 24% area CAGR, revenue growth is only 27%. The result is that Rev/sft has only grown 3% CAGR despite 20% average SSG growth!!

Bull markets are a great time for fraudster promoters to make money. If you are a fraudster and also want to benefit from this bull market, here's a thread that explains how you can defraud shareholders and get rich. 1. Have a good story to catch investor's attention. Something like "only listed XYZ company" will help. Has zero value in terms of improving long-term cash flows of the business but is excellent branding for a stock. Change the name of the company to what's booming in the market

In the spirit of asking Qs that few seem to do in a bull market, here are a few more related to Dilip Buildcon.

#justasking #NextShilpi

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Why does it have 5 months+ of receivables? Why are 1300 crs of receivables non-current i.e. outstanding for more than a year?

#justasking