Think tanker/📺 commentator covering geopolitics and tech from 🇨🇳. ex-PE/VC investor 💰. 15+ years on the ground in Beijing.
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Mar 17, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Thread: Why banning TikTok would be a disaster for America
As if things weren’t bad enough in America, now they want to take away your TikToks. Here are some reasons why that would be a terrible idea. #SaveTikTok#NoBan
TikTok is a cultural phenomenon that has given voice and visibility to millions of young Americans, especially those from marginalized communities. Banning it would deprive them of a creative outlet and a source of empowerment. #DiversityMatters
According to Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer at China Assoc of Auto Manufacturers, China to sell 8M passenger vehicles overseas by 2030—>2x Japan’s current shipments
The trend underscores that China has moved beyond being the “world’s factory” for low-cost consumer electronic devices, appliances and Christmas toys.
Jan 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What’s it like to have Chinese government as a co-parent?
“Constantly served up moral, history and culture lessons on pulling together for the sake of the Chinese nation, our girls came home discussing self-discipline, integrity and respect for elders.
With school instilling a solid work ethic and a total drive for academic excellence, my husband and I didn’t need to push the girls to complete homework; the shame of letting their teachers and classmates down was enough to light their fires.”
A thread
1/ President Xi Jinping has declared that drones are capable of "profoundly changing war scenarios" and pledged to speed up the development of unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities.
Jan 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Chinese tourists are a force to be reckoned with in the travel industry! They not only spend more money than tourists from other countries, but they also tend to stay longer on their trips. #Chinatourism#luxurytravel2/ This is great news for luxury brands such as @LouisVuitton , @gucci , and @Prada , as Chinese tourists are known to be big buyers of high-end goods. But it's not just the big cities and shopping centers that benefit from their spending. #luxurygoods#Chinaspending
Jan 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Thread alert! 🚨
1/ China is known for its manufacturing prowess, but did you know they're also likely to be a force to be reckoned with in the semiconductor industry?
2/ The challenge for China isn't technological or scientific, it's about effectively organizing existing knowledge to recreate a supply chain.
Dec 20, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
A broad range of estimates on impact this wave of COVID will have in China:
China is expected to record more than 124 million COVID-19 cases with symptoms and 2.7 million are in need of ICUs, the experts team led by Yu Hongjie from the School of Public Health, Fudan University predicted, based on the vaccination rate of the country in March 2022,
Dec 2, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
More on what I think is Jiang Zemin’s legacy: On March 9, 2000 @nytimes published excerpts from a speech by President Bill Clinton with this being one of the most memorable, "Now there's no question China has been trying to crack down on the Internet.
Good luck! That's sort of like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall."
And this quote sheds light on an important but under-appreciated aspect of Jiang Zemin's legacy: He successfully protected China from being undermined by peaceful evolution and subversion by the United States.
Oct 24, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Besides the Standing Committee, worth noting is elevation of He Weidong to CMC vice chair (via @SCMPNews):
He Weidong, who has had three promotions in a decade, was commander of the Eastern Theatre Command from 2019 to 2022.
Just five years ago he was not even a Central Committee member but now he sits on the Politburo and is ranked No 2 two in the world’s biggest fighting force – one of the most dramatic promotions at the 20th congress.
Aug 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Is the US fighting a losing battle trying to stop China’s advances in semiconductors?
“Five years ago, China’s EDA offerings essentially unusable. Today, they are very competitive, with limitations.”
Hutcheson said his EDA comments are based on private conversations with industry executives. China’s best, most visible EDA players are Hejian, Amedac, Aerdai, and X-Epic, he added.
Jun 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5 US Air Force suffering from reverse Moore’s Law: On avg, successive generations of warplanes cost 2.5x more to acquire than those they replace. In a great-power conflict, it will lack the superior aircraft numbers (mass) to win long and destructive war of attrition.
2/5 The F-22 Raptor cost approximately $250 million apiece, far more than the $65 million F-15 Eagle it replaced: nearly a 400 percent increase.
As a result, American warplanes have become more capable, but the overall fleet size has gotten smaller.
Jun 2, 2022 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
1/18 Why are there so many mass shootings in US?
Here's a surprising explanation:
In China, citizens have high expectations of their government and those expectations being met. In US, Americans have low expectations of their government and those expectations, too, being met.
2/18 In Uvalde, Texas last week a troubled teenager shot and killed nineteen children and two adults at Robb Elementary School. But there are many more victims than just those so tragically murdered that day.
May 27, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/11 Deeply reported piece by @NikkeiAsia on challenges facing TSMC in Arizona and why its semiconductor fab there may end up a costly disappointment. Key points 👇👇👇
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busin…
2/11 Construction costs and delays: Simply finding enough workers to build the facilities has already proved a challenge…and Arizona — where summer temperatures average 38 C — has always struggled to recruit construction workers in sufficient numbers.
May 19, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/8 Earlier this week @CCG_org I hosted a discussion about China's recently announced National Unified Market.
This is a pretty big deal and here's why it matters:
China's market may be big but it's not yet strong. If this new policy succeeds, it will be both. 2/8 He Weiwen, a former Chinese diplomat, offered a historical perspective: China today is like a fragmented Germany in the 1800s before unification. And the impact of a national unified market in China may have similar far-reaching and long-lasting economic effects
May 18, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/6 A better way to understand the world around us?
@RayDalio: When I went to Africa a number of years ago, I saw a pack of hyenas take down a young wildebeest. My reaction was visceral. I felt empathy for the wildebeest and thought that what I had witnessed was horrible.
2/6 But was that because it was horrible or was it because I am biased to believe it’s horrible when it is actually wonderful?
May 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5 As re-infections and cases of long COVID grow, China’s policy may be right one after all:
A virus that shows no signs of disappearing, variants adept at dodging body’s defenses, and waves of infections 2-3x/year — this may be future of Covid-19, some scientists now fear.
2/5 The central problem is that the coronavirus has become more adept at reinfecting people.
May 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4 US frustration with India will continue to grow. Here’s why:
Like China and Russia, India sees itself as a civilization, not a nation-state.
2/4 Seeking flexibility and strategic autonomy is therefore linked not only to India’s assessment of own geography but also to a world view that aims for a global order absent a hegemonic power where India is properly recognized as a nuclear power w/its own sphere of influence.
Apr 8, 2022 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Tough times never last but tough companies do - A thread about @Huawei and its future
Dark desires and hidden agendas are the subject of Arthur Miller’s play, The Crucible, which tells the story of the Salem witch trials
2/ and how a self-perpetuating cycle of paranoia and opportunism can destroy the lives of innocents and undermine an entire community. The title of the play is illuminating because a crucible is a container in which metals are subjected to extremely high temperatures
Apr 2, 2022 • 21 tweets • 3 min read
1/ What's really behind conflict in Ukraine - a thread
The U.S. is engaging Russia in three wars. Let me discuss them in increasing order of importance and the likely repercussions on the U.S.-led global order.
2/ The first is the military war taking place on the ground in Ukraine. Then there is the propaganda war taking place at Western media outlets like CNN and on social media platforms like Twitter.
First, people like @margbrennan are little more than uncouth and ignorant barbarians.
But we must remember this important adage, "Their house, their rules." 1/
When entering their arena, one must stand ready to beat them at their own game, however distasteful this might be to a person of gentility and cultivation. 2/
Aug 7, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
A thread on @huawei Meng Wanzhou case and Solomonic riddle facing Heather Holmes
In Hebrew Bible, Solomon was renowned for his wisdom. In one of most well-known stories demonstrating this, two mothers living in the same house, each the mother of an infant son, came to Solomon.
One of the babies had died and each claimed the remaining boy as her own. Faced with this conundrum, Solomon declared that the baby would be cut in two with each woman receiving half. One mother agreed. However, the other pleaded, "Give the baby to her, just don't kill him!"