Aadit Kapadia આદિત કાપડિયા Profile picture
Co-Founder: https://t.co/0QX0oGNEng,Civil eng, Foodie,Traveler. love politics, cricket, movies, music. Columnist; RTs not endorsements. Views here are personal
1 Dec
[Thread] Fraudulent analysis. NDA got around 45% of the vote. NOT 38%, cannot be said that the other 55% voted against NDA - it also included 2.7% IND and 1+% NOTA .. Those are not opposition votes. And this business of adding votes randomly across seats, does not work. (1/n)
You cannot just randomly add votes that parties received in diff parts of India & just say that nationally if we add them all this is 50%+ against NDA. That can be done if India voted like the US does in presidential elections. In Lok Sabha elections it doesn't work that way(2/n)
Lets take the example of Telangana and Odisha. Where TRS and BJD were in a contest with BJD. Congress polled a few votes there too. If TRS and BJD were in alliance with Congress, there is no evidence to suggest that all the numbers will add up, BJP might get more votes too (3/n)
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29 Nov
I am quite surprised to see some of the Canadian MPs tweeting about the #FarmersProtest .. and have no idea about APMC, or what they farmers are actually facing or what many agricultural experts have said about the reforms. Their tweets are pandering to the usual suspects.
And not all of them seem to be from the far left groups (the ones don’t seem to condemn Khalistanis and keep talking about that referendum).. some other voices have tweeted too. The extremists who refuse to condemn Khalistanis are pressuring it would seem. This is a scary trend.
And Canada ke baad a few Brits have too. These tweets just seem like uninformed WhatsApp forwards written to further a ‘certain narrative’. There is a weird pattern emerging
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12 Nov
[Thread] After the 2017 Gujarat Elections Delhi media had declared that Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor & Jignesh Mevani will essentially be the future of non BJP politics in Gujarat. Many of us knew that would never happen, and we said so then. This is what ended up happening: (1/n)
Alpesh left the congress and joined BJP, Hardik Patel led congress to a disastrous showing in the #GujaratByPolls where they won 0 seats out of the 8 they held. Jignesh Mevani became an Ind. MLA thanks to Congress not fielding a candidate, but INC won’t do that this time (2/n)
Hardik Patel and his agitation was doomed to fail as I said here a while back: myind.net/Home/viewArtic… .. but the fact that he led the Congress to such an embarrassing result, shows you that the minor gains made have also vanished. The BJP got a whopping 54% of the vote (3/n)
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11 Nov
[Thread] One of the most incredible stories in the #BiharElections is that of the ‘Vikassheel Insaan Party’ led by Mukesh Sahani which has a huge base among the Nishad/Mallah community. Earlier in alliance with the UPA, they made an alliance with the BJP/NDA and won 4 seats (1/n)
From the days of Phoolan Devi (who belonged to the same caste) to her tragic death, when it seemed like alliances like the ones that have happened this time would never happen, Indian politics has changed for the better and has come a long way indeed. (2/n)
Last few years BJP has expanded its base, and if the last few elections are any indication- alliances like these will only solidify. It was said by many leftist commentators that BJP was only an upper caste party, and it wasn’t true then, it is certainly not true now (3/n) #Bihar
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10 Nov
#BiharElectionResults2020 Current Positions:
NDA 120 (-5)
MGB 115 (+5)
LJP 0 (-2)
OTH 8 (+2)

Crucial for NDA to maintain this to form govt or get closer to 122, because among the 8 others, there are 5 leads of AIMIM, who could support the MGB. Very close fight right now.
And my friend @shwetankbhushan called it days ago on @myindmakers when polls were giving Tejashwi the edge. Do read this piece where he predicted how close the election would be and what are the factors: myind.net/Home/viewArtic…
Ultimately Asaduddin Owaisi is trying to do what Mayawati did years ago, where she would always get a few votes/seats wherever there was a significant Dalit vote. Owaisi is trying to do the same with Muslim vote. He got a few MLAs in #Maharashtra, tried in UP and now in #Bihar.
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10 Nov
In Gujarat, @BJP4Gujarat is leading now in ALL the 8 seats that went to the by polls. What the ‘analysts’ won’t tell you is that Hardik Patel - who is leading the Gujarat Congress, massively campaigned everywhere and his impact has been very minimal it seems. #byelection2020
If the trends hold, then it is a big win for @vijayrupanibjp .. in 6 seats the margin is quite comfortable for @BJP4India, 2 are closer. But if they win all 8, Gujarat congress might go into crisis mode again as this is a huge dent against Hardik Patel. #byelection2020
The problem with Congress in Gujarat is the lack of good leadership - they keep passing the baton to the same old guard or chose someone like a Hardik Patel who might be a favorite of a few journalists but won’t work on the ground. Till they get it together, they will keep losing
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10 Nov
#BiharElection2020 : NDA - 130, MGB - 97, OTH - 16. NDA is heading for a huge win if these trends hold. This has been a stunning turnaround.
Another story of the day that is good news for @BJP4India ..
Gujarat By Polls - BJP leads 7/8
MP - BJP leads 18/28
UP - BJP leads 5/7
And BJP is leading in the seat in Telangana as well by a significant margin. That is huge! #ByElections
Apart from these, @BJP4India is leading in 2/2 seats in Jharkhand and 2/2 in Karnataka. (The Jharkhand margins are a lot narrower than K’taka and could change). And in Odisha BJP is trailing but by a small margin. They are clearly the no 2 party in Odisha and congress is now no 3
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10 Nov
Look at this. Both @IndiaToday and @CNNnews18 are claiming they have accurate numbers .. they’re showing two completely different scenarios #BiharElectionResults .. this is quite crazy :) ImageImage
Last time everyone was showing BJP leading and News 18 showed MGB leading. This time everyone else is showing MGB leading, news 18 is showing BJP leading. This is quite insane .. #BiharElection2020
Now @IndiaToday s numbers are coming closer to what @CNNnews18 s numbers are. This is a tight election .. we might not know for another couple of hours it seems. #BiharElection2020 #BiharElectionResults
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10 Nov
Before reacting to the #BiharElectionResults in the first hour, please remember how the news channels got is so wrong last time .. let’s wait and watch what happens. #BiharElection2020
And yes it was so bad that on NDTV, Prannoy Roy had to say how they got it wrong in the post election show. Let the madness begin :) #BiharElection2020
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16 Oct
The survey that you extensively quote @dhume, is at odds with your own piece. You say in the piece that the major states with IA's (NY, NJ, Texas, CA) have already been decided (which i agree with) and the real battle is for IA votes in some swing states. (1/n)
The survey that you quoted @dhume, still talks to> 400 people in those states. The total sample size is only 936. Given that in those 4 states, majority of IA's vote for democrats, isn't this heavily tilted towards dems and not focusing as much on IA's in the swing states? (2/n)
Establishment surveys forget one big thing, surveying IA's in CA, NY, NJ, TX doesn't give an accurate picture of what is happening in swing states. 60% of the IA's might still vote for Dems, but if 70% of them come from those 4 states how is it representative? @dhume (3/n)
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15 Oct
[Thread] Whenever there is any discussion about #AIIMS i always see Congressis talking about crediting Nehru and almost never mention Rajkumari Amrit Kaur who was the Health Min of India from 1947-57. She was the real force behind AIIMS and also introduced the AIIMS Act in '56.
Rajkumari Amrit Kaur as Health Min. led the fight against Malaria, was even behind the BCG vaccination and donated her residence at Shimla, Manorville, to AIIMS as a space meant for the relaxation and recreation of the doctors and nurses of the institute. indianexpress.com/article/resear…
“It is important to note that though a devout Christian, she was very much against missionary activities,” says Siddhant Das, great grand nephew of Amrit Kaur “She was a zealous patriot who believed that missionaries were alienating Indians from their cultural roots,” he explains
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