German elections: record far right/left surge in Thuringia/Saxony. But this is no eastern phenomenon.
Despite scandals, in *every state* except Hamburg AfD gets double digits; in wealth bastions BW/Hesse ~18%.
Voters demand policy change, esp on migration
wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landt… The government has been hammered, but the opposition conservatives can hardly rejoice.
President Steinmeier, veteran of many govts that presided over a rise in irregular migration, said today that reducing it must be a cross-party priority in coming years welt.de/politik/deutsc…

World War II history is haunting Western attempts to seize Russian assets and funnel them to Ukraine’s defense against Moscow with @laurnorman via @WSJwsj.com/world/europe/w… Berlin's among the fiercest opponents of the U.S.-led push to grab ~$300bn of Russian frozen assets. Germany and Japan fear that seizing, rather than freezing, the funds could create a precedent and inspire new claims against them for WWII-era crimes
wsj.com/world/europe/w…

Ukraine's running out of ammo but will now get huge shipments of shells it needs most.
Not from the U.S., or any big power, but thanks to Czechia, which clinched a global deal because it operated outside EU/NATO bureaucracies & used Cold War relations
wsj.com/world/europe/a… EU talks, Czechia keeps Ukraine in the fight:
Prague activated Cold War relations to source ~800,000 artillery shells from a diverse suppliers spanning the globe and identified another ~700,000 that could be secured with extra funds
wsj.com/world/europe/a…

A young German woman was murdered by Hamas while attending a music festival in Israel before the militants desecrated and paraded her body on the back of a truck.
Some even claimed she was an Israeli soldier
via @MailOnlinedailymail.co.uk/news/article-1… Video of Hamas gunmen sitting on the young woman's lifeless, naked body on the back of a pick-up truck, their supporters running alongside and chanting "Allahu Akbar" while spitting on the victim's head.
An innocent civilian attending a festival in Israel.
cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/mOobx…

Putin Wants His Hit Man Back

Russia’s ruler personally ordered his chief aide to seek the return of a covert killer serving a life sentence in Germany, possibly in exchange for US prisoners including @WSJ reporter @evangershkovich

With @AlanCullison

wsj.com/world/putin-wa… Moscow has since mentioned Vadim Krasikov in hostage diplomacy.
Some officials said a multilateral deal to swap Russian detainees in Western countries for Western citizens held in Russia, as well as imprisoned dissidents such as @navalny, was possible.

wsj.com/world/putin-wa…

Europe is struggling to produce enough ammunition for Ukraine and for itself, jeopardizing ⁦@NATO⁩ defense capacity and its support for Kyiv, officials and industry leaders say. My report via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/europ… Lack of ammo production capacity & specialized workers, supply-chain bottlenecks, high costs of financing & even environmental regulations are putting a brake on efforts to increase output, presenting the West and Ukraine with a fresh challenge wsj.com/articles/europ…

How does Russia lose in Ukraine?
After Ukraine's triumph in Kherson, let's recall how other relatively recent invasions by the Russian/Soviet Empire against weaker opponents ended in disasters that could offer lessons for Moscow's current war of conquest: 1. Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5
Moscow severely underestimated Japan, partly due to racist misconceptions and its own corruption, and proceeded to lose virtually its entire Eastern/Baltic fleets before suffering a humiliating defeat and suing for peace
britannica.com/event/Russo-Ja…

Eight months later, Ukriane’s flag is hoisted again over government buildings in Kherson as the city is being liberated from Russian occupation

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1500044763306897409

Liberated Kherson celebrates the Ukrainian army t.me/hueviyherson/2…

Russian gas began flowing again through #NordStream, buying time for governments to decouple from the Kremlin’s exports amid what they expect will be an increasingly unreliable supply of energy from Moscow heading into the winter wsj.com/articles/russi… @georgikantchev @WSJ NordStream cutoff would have pushed Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse & several of its neighbors into a severe recession. But even reduced flows mean governments may still be forced to ration energy and subsidize mounting costs for households wsj.com/articles/russi…

Crack appear in western front against Russia: America’s European allies are increasingly split over whether to keep shipping more powerful weapons to Ukraine, which some fear could prolong the conflict. With ⁦@drewhinshaw⁩ via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/crack… Some EU na­tions are los­ing ap­petite for sus­tain­ing a war they think is unwinnable. By con­trast, Poland and the Baltic coun­tries, who once lived un­der the Krem­lin’s boot, see them­selves as next in line for Russ­ian im­pe­ri­al­ist ex­pan­sion wsj.com/articles/crack…

Complaints rise that Germany is blocking stronger sanctions and refusing to send substantial military aid to Ukraine. Via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/germa… CIA chief Burns told aides to Chancellor @OlafScholz on a confidential visit to keep pressure up on Putin as he had no intention of settling the conflict in talks but was preparing to strike Ukraine again later this month wsj.com/articles/germa…

To put this in context: the west bankrolls Putin's wars. The Ukraine invasion increases energy prices, and Russia gets more cash from the west. Despite all the sanctions, the EU alone now pays *660m a day* just for Russian gas, according to @Bruegel_org

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1500852197009014789

This hasn’t really aged well: then German FM @HeikoMaas rejects Trump criticism of the NordStream2 pipeline: “Germany’s in no way dependent on Russia, certainly not when it comes to energy .” Now Germany’s in econ war with Russia but can’t stop buying its gas and oil

https://twitter.com/dbroessler/status/1045058678469079040

Refugees fleeing Ukraine now represent biggest movement of people in Europe since World War II. ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/refug… More than 1.45 million people have left the country since Russia invaded, with most headed for Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia wsj.com/articles/refug…

Massive protests in Ukrainian cities occupied by Russia, making short work of Putin’s outlandish claims that the @UN-condemned invasion is “liberation.” This is Kherson after the Russian conquest This is Melitopol - unarmed Ukrainians take on Russian occupation forces

Ukrainian refugees began reaching west European countries as Russia intensified its shelling of civilian targets to break the resistance to its invasion. The arrivals, mainly women and children, said that men had remained in Ukraine to fight.

wsj.com/livecoverage/r… EU rail firms including in Poland, Germany and France, are now allowing free travel to anyone carrying Ukrainian ID. On Wednesday, hundreds arrived at Berlin’s Central Station. "Dear Ukrainians... we wish you a welcome in Berlin," a recorded message said wsj.com/livecoverage/r…

Chancellor @OlafScholz is announcing a full paradigm shift of Germany's post-Cold War policy. Putin's aggression has succeeded where generations of western leaders failed: Germany will re-arm to protect Europe's democracy Germany will: boost defense spending above 2% GDP, immediately pour 100bn in the armed forces, buy Israeli drones and US F-35s for the nuclear deterrent, build a strategic natural-gas reserve and finance two major LNG terminals, says @OlafScholz @WSJ wsj.com/articles/germa…

With Nord Stream 2 Freeze, Germany Takes First Step to Cut Russian Gas Reliance. Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine triggered a search for alternative gas supplies, but it could take years for Berlin to wean itself off Russian imports ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/with-… German Chancellor Angela Merkel huddled with her French, Dutch and Russian counterparts around a mock gas valve to symbolically switch on Nord Stream. Ms. Merkel praised Russia as an “outstanding partner for Europe’s energy supply.”
wsj.com/articles/with-…

The nightmare scenario for Germany's government is now reality: Nord Stream 2 has been put on ice after Russia's advance into Ukraine.
Three consecutive chancellors have supported the pipe which was completed despite US sanctions under Angela Merkel
wsj.com/articles/germa… NordStream2 was not halted as part of any sanctions, but by decision of the government. This means it can easily be approved later, if there is some arrangement with Russia, but that looks very unlikely given the gravity of the situation that is deteriorating by the minute

Germany’s dependence on Russian gas has left Europe short of options to sanction Moscow—and itself vulnerable should Russia stop gas exports to the West. Our analysis via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/germa… A de­ci­sion to phase out nu­clear power and more re­cent moves to cut re­liance on coal in an ef­fort to bring down CO2 emis­sions mean Ger­many is now more re­liant on Russ­ian gas than most of its neigh­bors, not just for heat­ing but also for power wsj.com/articles/germa…

Germany is blocking ⁦@NATO⁩ ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine. Via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/germa… Unlike U.S., UK, Poland &other allies, Germany declined to export lethal weapons to Ukraine. Berlin is also refusing to allow a third country to send artillery to Ukraine because the weaponry originated in Germany wsj.com/articles/germa…

Thread on the EU nuclear debate:
1.Germany finds itself unusually isolated in the EU after the bloc aligned with scientific consensus & wants to declare nuclear helpful to combating climate change - just as Germany shutters its last nuclear powerplants & energy prices explode 2. The German government must now go against EU consensus, also because it includes the Greens, a party rooted in the anti-nuclear (and anti gene-tech)movement. Green fundamentals have been rattled recently with the nuclear renaissance & the advent of gentech Covid-19 vaccines