The @WhiteHouse summit was a triumph for @ZelenskyyUa & his European backers. Here're the highlights:
1. @realDonaldTrump pledged US security guarantees to Ukraine & tasked @SecRubio with formalising them with a Euro/@NATO task force.
2. Zelensky accepted "land swaps" ie giving up territory IF America offers firm guarantees, incl boots on the ground.
3. The 8 European leaders agreed on an elaborate role-play ahead of the summit. Finland's @alexstubb (whom Trump called a "young and powerful man") & @NATO's @SecGenNATO were in charge of talking territory. They used language familiar to Trump: they compared the land Putin is demanding to the US giving up Florida, and said the territory Russia occupied was like most of the East Coast. The Donetsk fortifications are like a "bastion against the Huns" they said. Trump seemed impressed.
4. Trump had scheduled a call with Putin and elicited some sort of agreement from him to meet Zelensky. This should happen when the Rubio, the Euro natsec advisors and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander hammer out the security guarantees in 1-2 weeks. Geneva was mentioned as location.
5. Zelensky offered to buy 100bn worth of US arms via a NATO system known as PURL, using European cash. Trump said he wanted to invest in Ukraine's drone industry and obtain tech transfer to the US.
6. Trump asked everyone politely not to use the word ceasefire. They agreed to use the phrase "Stop the Killing" instead.
wsj.com/world/trump-pu… @WSJ
Pic: Ukrainian delegation Our report from last night
wsj.com/world/trump-pu…

🚨A New Spy Unit Is Leading Russia’s Shadow War Against the West

We identified the lethal unit behind plots to send firebombs via @DHLGlobal and murder western executives such as the @RheinmetallAG, as well as sabotage and cyber-strikes

My investigation via @WSJ

wsj.com/world/europe/r… The operations of Russia’s GRU Department of Special Tasks or SSD have included attempted killings, sabotage and a plot to put incendiary devices on planes.

The department’s creation reflects Moscow’s wartime footing against the West, the officials said. It was set up in 2023 in response to Western support for Ukraine and includes veterans of some of Russia’s most daring clandestine operations in recent years, according to two European intelligence chiefs and other U.S., European and Russian security officials.

wsj.com/world/europe/r…

Our exclusive with @JDVance ahead of @MunSecConf: -On Ukraine, he says there will be a good peace deal that will guarantee the country’s long-term sovereignty - and Putin will face sanctions and military measures if he doesn’t play ball.
-On Europe, he will tell mainstream leaders in Munich that they’ve become Soviet-style enemies of free speech and democracy who ignore voters and fail to stop mass migration. Some Germans will be particularly shocked when he calls for ending the firewall against the far-Right @AfD and embracing the populist vote.
With @alexbward via @WSJ wsj.com/world/europe/v… “There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” the U.S. could use against Putin, @JDVance told @WSJ .

The @VP remarks, coming a day before a meeting with Ukrainian President @ZelenskyyUa , offered the Trump administration’s strongest-yet support for Kyiv in the face of Russian demands that it disarm and replace the current government.

“The president is not going to go in this with blinders on,” Vance said. “He’s going to say, ‘Everything is on the table, let’s make a deal.’”

wsj.com/world/europe/v…

🧵Must-watch for understanding Germany's current challenges: @ronzheimer talks to Chancellery Minister @W_Schmidt_, one of the most capable European politicians/officials who kept the disparate Berlin coalition together. He commands *every single policy detail* across govt.

https://twitter.com/W_Schmidt_/status/1886869341007962155

Schmidt, key aide who got @OlafScholz elected, summarizes Germany's predicament that fuels the rise of @AfD:
1. Economic decline
2. Mass migration
3. Growing rejection (esp in east ) of the support for Ukraine because of economic concerns, war angst or pro-Russian sentiments

Angela Merkel Wants Her Memoir to Save Her Legacy. It’s Backfiring.
In her book, the former German chancellor stubbornly defends decisions that have become increasingly unpopular, alienating even some of her allies
My piece via @WSJwsj.com/world/europe/a… Energy, migration, Russia: “Her key policies have all been exposed as wrong by the passage of time,” said Andreas Rödder.
“Only a few years later her era feels like ancient history.” wsj.com/world/europe/a…

Christmas market suspect was anti-Islam activist seemingly suffering from paranoid delusions who posted an ⁦@elonmusk⁩ video minutes after the attack wsj.com/world/europe/s… This is what the Christmas market suspect’s account posted minutes after the attack: rants about German police persecuting him, Socialism, Socrates - and a repost of a post about @elonmusk

https://twitter.com/drtalebjawad/status/1870169159419494729

German elections: record far right/left surge in Thuringia/Saxony. But this is no eastern phenomenon.
Despite scandals, in *every state* except Hamburg AfD gets double digits; in wealth bastions BW/Hesse ~18%.
Voters demand policy change, esp on migration
wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landt… The government has been hammered, but the opposition conservatives can hardly rejoice.
President Steinmeier, veteran of many govts that presided over a rise in irregular migration, said today that reducing it must be a cross-party priority in coming years welt.de/politik/deutsc…

World War II history is haunting Western attempts to seize Russian assets and funnel them to Ukraine’s defense against Moscow with @laurnorman via @WSJwsj.com/world/europe/w… Berlin's among the fiercest opponents of the U.S.-led push to grab ~$300bn of Russian frozen assets. Germany and Japan fear that seizing, rather than freezing, the funds could create a precedent and inspire new claims against them for WWII-era crimes
wsj.com/world/europe/w…

Ukraine's running out of ammo but will now get huge shipments of shells it needs most.
Not from the U.S., or any big power, but thanks to Czechia, which clinched a global deal because it operated outside EU/NATO bureaucracies & used Cold War relations
wsj.com/world/europe/a… EU talks, Czechia keeps Ukraine in the fight:
Prague activated Cold War relations to source ~800,000 artillery shells from a diverse suppliers spanning the globe and identified another ~700,000 that could be secured with extra funds
wsj.com/world/europe/a…

A young German woman was murdered by Hamas while attending a music festival in Israel before the militants desecrated and paraded her body on the back of a truck.
Some even claimed she was an Israeli soldier
via @MailOnlinedailymail.co.uk/news/article-1… Video of Hamas gunmen sitting on the young woman's lifeless, naked body on the back of a pick-up truck, their supporters running alongside and chanting "Allahu Akbar" while spitting on the victim's head.
An innocent civilian attending a festival in Israel.
cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/mOobx…

Putin Wants His Hit Man Back

Russia’s ruler personally ordered his chief aide to seek the return of a covert killer serving a life sentence in Germany, possibly in exchange for US prisoners including @WSJ reporter @evangershkovich

With @AlanCullison

wsj.com/world/putin-wa… Moscow has since mentioned Vadim Krasikov in hostage diplomacy.
Some officials said a multilateral deal to swap Russian detainees in Western countries for Western citizens held in Russia, as well as imprisoned dissidents such as @navalny, was possible.

wsj.com/world/putin-wa…

Europe is struggling to produce enough ammunition for Ukraine and for itself, jeopardizing ⁦@NATO⁩ defense capacity and its support for Kyiv, officials and industry leaders say. My report via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/europ… Lack of ammo production capacity & specialized workers, supply-chain bottlenecks, high costs of financing & even environmental regulations are putting a brake on efforts to increase output, presenting the West and Ukraine with a fresh challenge wsj.com/articles/europ…

How does Russia lose in Ukraine?
After Ukraine's triumph in Kherson, let's recall how other relatively recent invasions by the Russian/Soviet Empire against weaker opponents ended in disasters that could offer lessons for Moscow's current war of conquest: 1. Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5
Moscow severely underestimated Japan, partly due to racist misconceptions and its own corruption, and proceeded to lose virtually its entire Eastern/Baltic fleets before suffering a humiliating defeat and suing for peace
britannica.com/event/Russo-Ja…

Eight months later, Ukriane’s flag is hoisted again over government buildings in Kherson as the city is being liberated from Russian occupation

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1500044763306897409

Liberated Kherson celebrates the Ukrainian army t.me/hueviyherson/2…

Russian gas began flowing again through #NordStream, buying time for governments to decouple from the Kremlin’s exports amid what they expect will be an increasingly unreliable supply of energy from Moscow heading into the winter wsj.com/articles/russi… @georgikantchev @WSJ NordStream cutoff would have pushed Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse & several of its neighbors into a severe recession. But even reduced flows mean governments may still be forced to ration energy and subsidize mounting costs for households wsj.com/articles/russi…

Crack appear in western front against Russia: America’s European allies are increasingly split over whether to keep shipping more powerful weapons to Ukraine, which some fear could prolong the conflict. With ⁦@drewhinshaw⁩ via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/crack… Some EU na­tions are los­ing ap­petite for sus­tain­ing a war they think is unwinnable. By con­trast, Poland and the Baltic coun­tries, who once lived un­der the Krem­lin’s boot, see them­selves as next in line for Russ­ian im­pe­ri­al­ist ex­pan­sion wsj.com/articles/crack…

Complaints rise that Germany is blocking stronger sanctions and refusing to send substantial military aid to Ukraine. Via ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/germa… CIA chief Burns told aides to Chancellor @OlafScholz on a confidential visit to keep pressure up on Putin as he had no intention of settling the conflict in talks but was preparing to strike Ukraine again later this month wsj.com/articles/germa…

To put this in context: the west bankrolls Putin's wars. The Ukraine invasion increases energy prices, and Russia gets more cash from the west. Despite all the sanctions, the EU alone now pays *660m a day* just for Russian gas, according to @Bruegel_org

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1500852197009014789

This hasn’t really aged well: then German FM @HeikoMaas rejects Trump criticism of the NordStream2 pipeline: “Germany’s in no way dependent on Russia, certainly not when it comes to energy .” Now Germany’s in econ war with Russia but can’t stop buying its gas and oil

https://twitter.com/dbroessler/status/1045058678469079040

Refugees fleeing Ukraine now represent biggest movement of people in Europe since World War II. ⁦@WSJ⁩ wsj.com/articles/refug… More than 1.45 million people have left the country since Russia invaded, with most headed for Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia wsj.com/articles/refug…

Massive protests in Ukrainian cities occupied by Russia, making short work of Putin’s outlandish claims that the @UN-condemned invasion is “liberation.” This is Kherson after the Russian conquest This is Melitopol - unarmed Ukrainians take on Russian occupation forces

Ukrainian refugees began reaching west European countries as Russia intensified its shelling of civilian targets to break the resistance to its invasion. The arrivals, mainly women and children, said that men had remained in Ukraine to fight.

wsj.com/livecoverage/r… EU rail firms including in Poland, Germany and France, are now allowing free travel to anyone carrying Ukrainian ID. On Wednesday, hundreds arrived at Berlin’s Central Station. "Dear Ukrainians... we wish you a welcome in Berlin," a recorded message said wsj.com/livecoverage/r…