New today: Capital Weather Gang's winter outlook. We lean toward slightly below normal snow this winter in DC but more than we've seen in the last several winters -- which have produced very low numbers. 1/x The main reason most winter outlooks are calling for below normal snow for the DC area is because of La Nina, which -- on average -- brings below normal amounts. But this La Nina will probably be weak, if it develops at all. We think its influence may be limited. 2/x

Maps, we love maps. They help tell the story of the summer.

First, here are all of the locations which had one of their top 5 hottest summers - June thru Aug - on record. DC is among them.

1/5 Here all the places that highs of 100+ and the number of times. Some places in the Southwest like Phoenix and Yuma were 100+ pretty much every day.

2/5

Crazy -- and not in a good way -- wildfires in Canada have erupted (fueled by warm, very dry conditions) -- just like they did at this time last year, and sending smoke into the Upper Midwest, where air quality is tanking. 1/4 Code red air quality -- signifying unhealthy levels of smoke pollution -- in Minnesota and Wisconsin this morning. Parts of southwest Canada have seen Code Purple air quality-- the worst level. 2/4

⚠️DC area: We expect intense storms that could produce damaging or destructive winds -- especially in 5-7p window in immediate area.

Our detailed brief is up. Read it and share it:


Will thread some key points... 1/xwashingtonpost.com/weather/2023/0… We are under a level 4 out of 5 risk. The last time that happened locally was June 13, 2013; the previous time before that was the June 29, 2012 derecho. So the @NWSSPC sees ingredients in place for numerous dangerous storms in the area.

2/x

Communities are taking part in a radical revolution — of our lightbulbs. Bulbs are being swapped for more energy-efficient brighter LED lights.

But the rise of LEDs creates new issues for our night sky & health.

By @KashaPatel, @sadbumblebee, @kt_prry: wapo.st/3r3mNB3 Common types of LED lights emit more blue light than traditional high-pressure sodium bulbs. Differences are seen in this 2020 image from the Space Station. Bluer LEDs appear in Baltimore, while older amber-colored lights spread across D.C.

More: https://t.co/7TyF7WcYnCwapo.st/3r3mNB3

This wildfire season in Canada is unlike anything it's ever seen to date. And part of a trend toward larger fires & more damaging fire seasons.

4.7 million hectares have burned; average year to date is 310,000.

Carbon emissions from fires through the roof

(1/5) The land area burned so far in Canada has exceeded 5,000 percent of normal in some provinces. (2/5)

The smoke -- making the Eastern U.S. look like California at the peak of fire season -- is not normal.
The air is compromised from Minneapolis to DC to Boston, and the worst from western NY to arround Ottawa. A thread... 1/ New York City, Detroit and Toronto rank among top 12 cities in the world for bad air quality currently. 2/

Happy #EarthDay! We compiled images of Earth from different perspectives . Take a moment to appreciate the fragility and beauty of our home. 🧵

See the full list of images ranging from 12,000 feet under the sea to 4 billion miles in space by @KashaPatel: bit.ly/3AgM1xp 🛰️Bering Sea, from a satellite 440 miles above Earth

High vantage points often reveal large-scale marks on our planet. These colorful pockets are often blooms of microscopic marine algae called phytoplankton, from the Greek words phyto (plant) and plankton (wanderer).

So much NOT NORMAL in DC this February:
* Tidal Basin cherry blossom buds already developing
* Biggest February tree pollen explosion on record
* Leaf out on area trees is occurring earliest in at least a a generation
Reporting by @islivingston: bit.ly/3ItPhu5 (1/x) Here's the map which shows where spring leaves are emerging... it's already happening just south and east of Washington -- and is the earliest in at least 40 years per @USANPN. (2/x)

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. tracked China spy balloon from launch on Hainan Island along unusual path by @nakashimae @shaneharris w/ CWG's @JSamenow. Weather model from @NOAA helped Wash Post simulate the balloon's bath.
Full article: bit.ly/3HZLhjx (1/x) NOAA Hysplit tool, which can simulate atmospheric steering currents, showed a balloon launched from Hainan Island around Jan. 20 would have reached Aleutians around Jan. 28. (2/x)

In an average January, there are 36 tornadoes. So far this year? 124. Studies show climate change will probably increase winter tornadoes. This winter (and last winter) could well be a harbinger of what's to come... bit.ly/3CUDvpq 1/x Yesterday -- east of Des Moines, where temps were 20 degrees above normal, Iowa saw its first January tornadoes since 1967, and the earliest on record. Recall central & western Iowa saw first December tornadoes on record last winter. 2/x

Some reports from historic storm in western Alaska--
Wind gusts have topped 70 mph, storm surge of at least 7 feet, damage and power outages in coastal communities. Updated storm briefing: wapo.st/3BoPni4 Map of peak wind gusts in western Alaska so far...

“Apocalyptic.” “Unprecedented.” “A monsoon on steroids.”

Officials have struggled to put into words the flooding across Pakistan. More than 1,000 people have died, and tens of millions more have been affected.

See the scale of the flooding 🧵

wapo.st/3CJ9rOk The flooding turned catastrophic over the past few weeks as the monsoon season rainfall overwhelmed low-lying areas near the Indus River. Water spilled from its banks into the surrounding plains, destroying infrastructure and homes.

Got weekend plans? How about aurora chasing?

In recent days, aurora sightings in the U.S. were reported from Michigan, Washington, North Dakota and more. More activity is possible - the Northeast, Rockies and northern plains may have min. clouds tonight.

wapo.st/3Cfq8kl Beautiful aurora dance from Michigan!

https://twitter.com/CharlesPeekWX/status/1560550801575235586

The drought in Europe -- intensified by human-caused climate change -- is one of the worst in 500 years. It's making the ongoing heat waves and fires there worse. wapo.st/3dlJTfx (1/4) This satellite-derived map shows how widespread dry conditions are throughout Europe, by @tierneyl: (2/4)

Last night's flooding in northern DC + southern Montgomery County + northern Prince George's County was legit. 5-7" of rain near Silver Spring and Rockville. Overflowing streams, high water rescues, flooded basements, people displaced. Recap: wapo.st/3OYUQ4b Here's where radar estimated the heaviest rainfall Saturday night:... nearly 7" just northeast of Rockville. Over 7" just east of Silver Spring:

Six years ago, the DC region was absolutely buried by the Snowzilla storm with 18-36" of snow. Quite a few spots in our western areas entered the 30" club from this storm. This collection of photos showcased some of the most phenomenal scenes: wapo.st/39RQlWe Here were some of the most magical scenes from #Snowzilla: wapo.st/3c8bRJ1

EVENING update: Snow Thurs AM still on track. Rain changing to snow 6 to 9a, with potential for heavy burst 8-10a. A quick inch or two poss and, with roads not being pretreated due to rain, maybe some slick spots. More info here: wapo.st/3KoFp3O (1/3) There is some chance that this is not a big deal in some areas. Some models, like the Euro, indicate it won't snow hard enough for temps to drop and for much accumulation. But other models shows impressive burst (2/3)

In-depth-- why Monday's snowstorm was so severe: wapo.st/3ERXyTF ... Thread follows... The impact of Monday's storm can really be tied to:
1) its intensity and track, perfect for walloping central Va, S Md and DC with high snowfall rates and wind
2) the heavy, wet nature of the snow, which caused thousands of tree limbs to snap

CWG's detailed outlook for Monday snow event... These amounts * could * be conservative. Thread to follow... wapo.st/3pK9B15 As usual, very challenging forecast as there will be sharp cutoff in heavy snow...probably somewhere between Beltway and northern Maryland. Model forecast for DC range from 1-2 inches on low end and over a foot on high end. We're taking middle ground.

Exceptional warmth spreading into the Central U.S. with some places seeing temperatures 30-35 degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday: wapo.st/3lpySuV 1/x Dozens of record highs are set to be broken the next two afternoons. Many parts of the central U.S. seeing highs well into the 60s and 70s. 2/x