1/ Why every serious investor should implement a momentum strategy.

Momentum is not just another factor — it's one of the most researched and proven return drivers in financial markets.

Let me show you why ignoring it is a massive mistake. 🧵👇 2/ The momentum factor has been extensively studied for decades.

Academic research like this paper by Ehsani & Linnainmaa
👉
shows excess returns of nearly 4% per year from long/short momentum strategies.papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

1/7 Today´s analysis: VALE - A Thread 🧵
The current rally in commodities has not yet reached all commodities and therefore still offers numerous opportunities. One of these is $Vale, a large Brazilian mining company that mainly extracts iron ore but also mines copper and nickel. 2/ Together with Rio Tinto and BHP, Vale is one of the largest iron ore producers in the world. Vale and Rio Tinto had almost exactly the same production of iron ore of around 320-330 M/t in 2023. However, Vale's margins have been significantly higher than Rio Tinto's in recent years.

People underestimate the inflationary pressure that the soaring shipping rates have on the economy. Inflation has a big psychological factor. If things become hard to get again because of longer delivery times, companies all at once expand their inventories again. (1/2) (2/2) Companies have PTSD from the 2020 supply chain problem. When the economy reheats it ends in a "buy now more than I need" mentality again. This will put pressure on prices. In real terms (goods) invetories have fallen since May 2022 (red line) and are again vulnerable to trouble.

1/12 Small caps destined to outperform and play catch up! - A thread 🧵
The $SPY could face some headwinds in the near term and small caps might outperform, here are our thoughts... 2/12 Roughly 10 days ago we shared with our subscribers the following market update. It played out great so far and subscribers benefited from some nice momentum in the sector. In the following, we want to lay out our thoughts about some nice momentum building up in small caps

1/ 18 🌍📉 Today´s big analysis: Sibanye Stillwater - A Thread 🧵 2/ Sibanye Stillwater - $SBSW, a global leader in Platinum production and top $Gold producer, is navigating challenging market waters. The company's shares have plunged around 20% just today. Let´s look at what happened and analyse the company - we see a long-term value play!

1/X Very interesting article in the Financial Times about $PBR today.
Here’s a thread about it 🧵:
🛢️🇧🇷 Petrobras & Brazil's Oil Ambition: 2/ Off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, one of Petrobas many oil platforms ignites Brazil's dream of becoming a top-tier global energy producer. The reason: A ocean floor stretch, rich with hydrocarbons - known as „pre-salt“

1/12 Big announcement!
We just launched our subscription service over Substack!
Why should you even spend a buck on this? Let us give you an overview of our strengths and track record ...cstrategywbpenglish.substack.com/p/cycle-invest… 2/12 The WHAT: Gain full access to our investment process, cycle analysis, and specific stock picks, including exclusive macro & big picture research, sector picks, Stock picks, and bonus material...

The stock market looks like it will have a sizable correction very soon. Some thoughts (1/X) (2/X) Yesterday we saw one of the biggest short squeezes in history and record amount of call buying. The market may have cleaned out the hedges and sucked enough buyers in. Which leaves the market vulnerable.

Is the underperformance of silver and silver equities versus gold about to end?
A thread (1/X) 🧵 (2/X) Silver has lagged behind gold in the recent rally. Silver mining stocks have disappointed even more. However, there are signs that the silver (-miner) rally may continue in the near future.

Since other accounts like @contrarian8888 and @Laz_Cap have generously shared their work on $RIG, let's do our part. Let's see if this ship can turn around. A🧵 (1/X) @contrarian8888 @Laz_Cap (2/X) MCAP of $RIG currently stands at 2.2 bln. USD. The stock is trading at just 0.18 x book value. This is a level where it is usually a gamble whether the company will file for bankruptcy. Insanely cheap. In 2022 $RIG is expected to make a loss of -$470 million.

Silver doesn't look good in the short term, but if you're not trading #silver but investing in the sector, be aware of the possible paths that yields and inflation can take from here. A quick thread.🧵 Silver is basically like buying tips.(1/7) (2/7) Look at the near perfect correlation. Tips are the inverse of real yields, which is the current nominal yield minus inflation expectations. Silver and gold love negative real yields and hate the opposite. Real yields are on the rise right now.

How are things shaping up in the gold and silver sector?
At the risk of sounding like a broken clock: The fundamentals are exceptionally bullish - especially for silver. A thread (1/X) 🧵 (2/X) Let's start. What is the dollar doing? On both the daily and weekly charts, the dollar looks bearish. The chance of a top forming has increased further. We still see exaggerated bullish sentiment and extreme long positioning in the dollar.